Indian Defence Review

Home Minister Rajnath Singh in Shanghai, China

India and China have agreed for the first time to form a ministerial-level mechanism headed by respective Home Ministers to step up cooperation and coordination on a host of security-related issues, including cross-border terrorism, smuggling and drug trafficking.

The decision was reportedly agreed upon after Home Minister Rajnath Singh’s recent visit to Beijing where he held talks with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Interior Minister Guo Shengkun. This mechanism is to be followed up by working out a MoU on security-related issues. The latter is planned to be operationalised during visit of Guo Shenkun’s visit to India next year. The Committee, co-chaired by both Home Ministers, is to handle issues like terrorism, trans-border crimes, cyber crimes and drug trafficking security and law enforcement related issues.

The bilateral document is to provide the contours for cooperation in counter terrorism, security, trans-border crimes and related issues, as stated by the Home Minister, whose visit to Beijing was in the immediate aftermath of the November 13 terrorist attacks in Paris, as also killing of Chinese and Norwegian hostages by the ISIS. So far so good, but when did Chinese mutterings not have different multiple meanings and when sincerity crystal? 

The fact is that Pakistan, the very epicenter of terrorism is holy cow for China. This was re-confirmed when a 26-member strong Chinese delegation led by General Fan Changlong, Vice Chairman of China’s Central Military Commission visited India from 15 to 17 November 2015.

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar and General Fan too condemned the recent terrorist attack in Paris and agreed to strengthen cooperation to fight terrorism together including at international level and while Parrikar offered to share India’s expertise in fighting terrorism through joint exercises, China’s Ministry of National Defence made a pointed statement to the Indian media, “Pakistan is also a victim of terrorism. In the past few years, Pakistan has been fighting terrorism with a lot of casualties.”

The message was implicit – we will talk of countering terrorism but leave buddy Pakistan out of it. Quite rightly Claude Arpi noted, “China does not seem to have the same definition of the word ‘terrorism’ than India and the rest of the world.”  It is no secret that China has been providing tacit support to Pakistan’s anti-India jihad. It was Zhou-en-Lai who suggested to Ayub Khan in 1964 that Pakistan should prepare for prolonged conflict with India instead of short-term wars and raise a militia force to act behind enemy Indian lines, which became the basis for Pakistan’s terrorism pan India. 

As Pakistan extends her strategic depth in Afghanistan through both Taliban, China has major stakes in Pakistani proxies to safeguard her economic interests in Afghanistan, being the only country drilling commercial oil in Afghanistan since 2012 and engaged in extraction of minerals – having won a $4.4 billion contract way back in 2007. Latter was in areas protected by the ISAF but now China needs alternative means of security. Not only is China optimizing her own Taliban links, Pakistani support is essential. Pakistan holds the aces having installed Haqqanis religious teacher, Mullah Akhtar Mansoor, as the head of Afghan Taliban.

The massive Taliban penetration of the mineral rich Badakshan region of northern Afghanistan adjacent to the Wakhan Corridor through which China has built a road to Afghanistan is a China-Pakistan contrived action. Ironically, this suits the Obama administration too in mounting threats onto Central Asia and in turn on Putin.

The ISI operative in the hospital in Kunduz that got bombed was perhaps one among many in the region. That Pakistan already has regular troops operating inside Afghanistan along with proxy forces has been reported by Afghanistan’s  National Directorate of Security (NDS) in the past, one example being the truck bombing in Kabul on August 7 killing 15 and wounding 400, post which the NDS categorically stated that Pakistan’s ISI and military were directly involved in the ongoing violence and savagery in Afghanistan, and that the August 7 attacks were carried out by elements of the Pakistani army with the help of their mercenaries – Haqqani terrorist network. But then all this for China is not terrorism as long as violence in CoX (China Occupied Xinjiang) remains at manageable level and the CPEC progresses as per plan to achieve Chinese strategic goals in the IOR and the Persian Gulf.

But that is not all. While on the Afghanistan side, China has been nurturing Taliban past several years, On India’s eastern flank China has been providing training and support to ULFA on her soil. In May 2015, Chinese intelligence brought nine militant groups of northeast India under one umbrella organization; ULFWSEA (United National Liberation Front of West, South, East Asia). In addition, China has supplied assault rifles, machine guns, anti-tank rockets, QW-1 SAMs, armoured vehicles and missile fitted helicopters to United State Wa Army (USWA) in Myanmar. Latter was indeed a masterstroke in dangling the Sword of Damocles over Myanmar should it decide to get too cushy with the US. It was equally adroit in getting USWA, a totally Buddhist outfit, before they got wind of the genocide unleashed on the Buddhist population of CoT (China Occupied Tibet). So much for cooperation on countering terrorism!  Any talk of cooperation in terrorism by China can hardly be different from her usual façade. It may be noted that in 2011, China’s state TV, CCTV, showed the map of India without J&K and despite the formal protest by our MEA, continued showing the same.

The fact that behind the fake smiles is the mentality of a cold and calculating manic was apparent when CCTV deliberately showed the map of India sans J&K and Arunachal showed during visit of Prime Minister Modi to China during 2015.

So when cooperation in countering terrorism can be expectedly on the above lines, issues like smuggling and drug trafficking actually are perfunctory for China, simply because these are one-way traffic save perhaps odd rhino horns and tiger parts relished by Chinese as aphrodisiacs. Truck loads of Chinese wares enter Myanmar on daily basis carrying goods to be smuggled into India. Our northeast is flooded with smuggled Chinese goods not to talk of weapons being supplied to ULFA, PLA of Manipur and the Maoists.

China’s protégé UWSA controlling the Golden Triangle has emerged as the largest producer of methamphetamine. Methamphetamine smuggling by USWA amounts to reportedly some 200 million pills per year. If some 18 tons of heroine gets consumed in India as per the World Drug Trade Report, it is not coming all from the Golden Crescent. In fact, the checks along routes emanating from the Golden Triangle are vert few. Significantly, Chinese concept of ‘unrestricted warfare’ covers every possible dirty trick to be used as covert, ambiguous offensive means including terrorism, smuggling, drugs, even “atomic” terrorism, so one can pick and choose what to discuss.

As to cyber-crimes, the number and periodicity of Indian networks hacked possibly run into thousands. Indian websites of MEA, BARC, NIC, MoD, NSC, FICCI, Dalai Lama’s office and Indian embassies abroad have been hacked / defaced by Chinese Web Defacement Groups. Data ex DRDO, HAL, naval dockyards, nuclear installations, military bases, defence HQs, IDSA and other think tanks has been stolen by Chinese hackers in the past. Even INSAT 1B was interfered with, as were the Commonwealth Games in New Delhi. Considering the sophistication, finesse and pattern, cyber attacks in India have Chinese government patronage though China would like us to believe these are courtesy criminal gangs based in Sichuan and Guangdong. But then why would any country admit to such crimes, the only difference being that the China’s cyber warfare program is spearheaded by the PLA and as such ultimate responsibility rests on them. Incidentally, in 2013, NSCS issued an advisory against buying products of Chinese companies ZTE and Huwei because of their close association in China’s Cyber Warfare program headed by PLA. But within three months MHA opened the floodgates for them in India. Today, Huwei is bidding for participation in Digital India. How is that for cyber security?

Click to buy: IDR Oct-Dec 2015

On balance, it is good to talk but talks bear fruit when capacities and capabilities match on both sides. India has much to traverse. The need to develop credible deterrence to irregular forces was never more. For countering cyber threats, we need to optimize our strategic partnerships for building requisite individual and collective capabilities.

The only language China would understand presently is access to our markets, which we should make contingent upon the cooperation she extends in relation to abovementioned issues. It was noticeable to observe public shunning Chinese crackers during Diwali this year, which may have been because Chinese crackers let off excessive smoke and pollution. But this needs to be extended to other goods through public awareness especially since China is not interested in bringing down the mounting trade balance in China’s favour. As it is, our entry into RCEP will create the largest FTA and we are short of markets.