Indian Defence Review

Following the US drone strike killing Pakistan Taliban Chief Hakimillah Mehsud, it was hilarious to watch the somber faced Interior Minister of Pakistan accusing the US of scuttling efforts towards peace talks and threatening review of US-Pakistan ties. Unfortunately for him and the Pakistani establishment it is no more possible to fool Pakistan’s population. For one, the existence of a US-Pakistan pact for Predator strikes inside Pakistan since craftsman Musharraf’s time is well known by now, including consultations on whom to target. There is of course the possibility that US did not consult Pakistan in targeting Mehsud but then Mehsud had masterminded the 2009 attack on the CIA post at Khost in Camp Chapman – a strike that killed the CIA station chief and several operatives. But more importantly, wasn’t Mehsud categorized as the “bad Taliban” by Pakistan. The “good” and “bad” Taliban theory sold by Pakistan fooled no one including the US but the latter played along in their own interest hoping it would ease attacks on US-NATO forces in Afghanistan, which it did not.

It is no secret either that Pakistan continued to play the double game with the US, of which the US also has been fully aware. The Haqqanis have special treatment in Pakistan. Pir Zubair Shah and Carlotta Gall wrote in New York Times as far back as 31 Oct, 2011, “The Haqqani family, which runs the network like a mafia, maintains several town houses, including in Islamabad and elsewhere, and they have been known to visit military facilities in Rawalpindi, attend tribal gatherings and even travel abroad on pilgrimages. Experts say leaders of the Haqqani network may be hiding in plain sight in cities rather than in remote tribal areas.” Then is Mullah Omar, Afghan Taliban Chief whom Pakistan gives royal treatment like Osama-bin-Laden. General John Allen, Commander, US and NATO Forces, Afghanistan had disclosed in August 2012,  “Omar lives in Pakistan, as do many of his commanders. From that safe vantage point, they’ve sent hundreds of young impressionable and helpless youth to their death and detention in Afghanistan. For this, they must forfeit their honor and any claim to Islamic virtues.”

As for the peace talks, which talks is Pakistan’s Interior Minister referring to? The hope that Taliban would lay down arms and join the political process, that too by acquiescing to a democratic set up was a non-starter from the very beginning. More significantly, Pakistan has deliberately scuttled the steps that were to be initiated as per the Afghan Peace Process Roadmap to 2015 prepared by the Afghan High Peace Council (AHPC) last year despite the fact that this was prepared under US pressure on Pakistan’s insistence and deliberately leaked out. Pakistan showed its true colours in implementing the very first step of this roadmap – “End cross-border shelling, transfer of Taliban prisoners by Pakistan to Afghanistan or third country, pressure Taliban to sever ties with al-Qaeda.” While firing never ceased altogether, the release of Taliban prisoners by Pakistan was made a mockery of. First was the release of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar arrested from Karachi in February 2010, whose release was questioned by the Chief Justice of the Peshawar High Court. Interestingly, though Mullah Baradar, once  the number two to Afghan Taliban Chief Mullah Omar, was freed from jail in September with much fanfare is known to be still in Pakistan and Afghanistan is planning to send a delegation to meet him – though his importance in the so-called peace talks remains a question mark. One view is that Pakistan released him because he was of no more use to Afghanistan. Then, release of high-profile former Taliban officials like Mullah Fazl who allegedly carried out systematic extermination of ethnic minorities especially Hazaras in Afghanistan has sent wrong signals. Ironically, the 3^rd step of Afghan Peace Process Roadmap offers Taliban non-elected positions at various levels in government which virtually gives the Taliban complete control of Pashtun dominated areas along Afghanistan-Pakistan border after 2014 elections, which appears to back a two-state solution (or a variant of it) that splits the country into two blocs, a non-Pashtun north and west and the Pashtun south and east, under a weak central government in Kabul, which leaves Pakistan with an extended FATA. However, as expected Taliban have so far refused to talk directly to Karzai government, seek changes to Afghan Constitution and insist withdrawal of all foreign troops from Afghanistan.

Pakistan has been euphoric in its most successful foreign policy of running with the hares and hunting with the hounds, and drawing the best from all around including the US, China, Saudi Arabia – a policy chalked out and executed by the military. However, the elation has inadvertently led Pakistan astray in glossing over the fallouts of such policy. What appears to have been forgotten is the price of blood in Pakistan vis-à-vis the US. The ISI may be in league with the Taliban to have Shia soldiers singled out and shot from captured Pakistani patrols and the view that Pakistan is killing the Shias, Balochs, Sindhis and Pashtuns along with other minorities because of the overriding role of radical  Salafi and Wahabi Sunni Islam is a matter of conjecture but the fact is that the CIA did extract the head of Hakimullah Mehsud. Witness the manner in which the US Delta Force is taking out Al Qaeda operatives all over, recent one being Anas al-Liby in Tripoli. Now why how does Pakistan expect that the US is not going to extract the price of the blood of some 5000 plus soldiers killed in Afghanistan through Pakistani proxies or at best Pakistan supported proxies. Does not Obama owe this to the US public? Then, what about China? The 28^th  October Uighur strike in Beijing is just the beginning. Watch for more terror strikes and their links eventually traced back to the fertile hatcheries of Pakistan. Then of course is Khan Said Sajna, the newly crowned TTP Chief baying for blood. No wonder the Pakistani military is baulking to deflect pressures and create more mischief on either front. When the US rescued the Pakistani military from Khost and Kundus during their invasion of Afghanistan, of the 9000 Pakistani Taliban fighting in Afghanistan, 3000 were Pashtuns and 6000 were Punjabis. In a desperate bid to delay Pakistan’s implosion, the Pakistani military is planning to unleash scores of her para-military forces in garb of and in support of Taliban against both Afghanistan and India. This experiment and its blowback should be of interest to security analysts. While the world is keenly watching developments in Afghanistan post 2014, it should be more interested to weigh what is likely to happen in Pakistan, or more aptly what is going to become of Pakistan.