Indian Defence Review

(Map Courtesy: Center for Strategic & International Studies)

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan’s outburst: “India’s arrogant and negative response ….. small men occupying big offices (obvious reference to Prime Minister Modi)” is not surprising given his radical background and sans diplomatic sense. His baring teeth at the CPEC is what made Beijing direct Pakistani military to leash this uppity puppy by making him PM; remember when Congress discovered Home Minister Zail Singh entertaining, arming and financing Punjab terrorists, they kicked him into Rashtrapati Bhavan, and bugged  his bedroom and office throughout his Presidency. It certainly doesn’t behove Imran speaking in this manner, especially because India rejected his suggestion of foreign ministers meeting in New York due to Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attacks in J&K, brutal killing of a BSF Head Constable and issuing  commemorative stamps depicting terrorists killed in J&K .

Imran’s frustration is more because his dream of presiding over the SAARC Summit in Pakistan later this year with the Indian Prime Minister sitting by his side has faded.  He could have even succeeding in so doing by convincing Bajwa to give a break in terrorism till the SAARC Summit, but radical souls of both Imran and Bajwa remained convinced they could carry on with terrorism and yet forces India into talks. Remember Bajwa stating last year, “Ultimately, they (India) will have to talk to us”. The initial yes by MEA must have given immense joy to Imran. Mercifully, India finally said no. This may have frustrated Imran more than receiving outright no in first instance.

Army Chief General Bipin Rawat recently said, “We need to take stern action to avenge the barbarism that terrorists and the Pakistan Army have been carrying out. Yes, it’s time to give it back to them in the same coin, not resorting to similar kind of barbarism. But I think the other side must also feel the same pain.   Fawad Chaudhry, Pakistan’s Minister for Information and Broadcasting says General Rawat is highlighting himself as ‘tool’ of a political party, he should know he is an army chief not a BJP secretary general, adding, “Pakistan and India are nuclear-armed countries, therefore, there is no possibility of war.” Qamar Javed Bajwa, Pakistani army chief, while addressing Defence Day ceremony in Rawalpindi last year to mark the 53rd anniversary of the 1965 war with India had said, “The blood that has been spilled on the frontier, the blood being spilled on the frontier, we will take revenge for this blood.”

What beyond the war of words? Bipin Rawat has spoken on TV that Army is responding to Pakistani attacks similarly and that massive damage to Pakistani defences have been caused. But such warnings have been given to Pakistan in the past, including after barbarous attacks. Views were expressed in the past that that the 2016 surgical strikes were to influence the UP State Elections in 2017, which is untrue because these strikes were in retaliation to the Pakistan-sponsored terrorist attack on the army base at Uri in September 2016. Our pro-active operations have generally been fire assaults using artillery, missiles etc, which Pakistan also indulges in, including shelling our villages. There is speculation now that before the general elections, government may undertake another surgical strike against Pakistan. Looking at desperation to attract votes by countrywide celebrations of second anniversary of the surgical strikes, government would certainly like to do ‘something’ but what that will be, if at all, only time will tell.

Why does Pakistan always talk of war and being nuclear armed? In terms of conventional capability, Pakistan has achieved near parity; not only because of China arming Pakistan at fast pace but also due corresponding inaction at our end. Defence Minister Sitharaman rubbished Parliament’s Standing Committee for Defence report highlighting pathetic equipping of Armed Forces and immaturely boasts of ‘cutting heads, not displaying them’,  but facts speak for themselves. Rawat says, “We continuously need modern weapons. There is a limit till which we can use a particular weapon …”. Our MoD is sans military professionals, procurement takes decades, is patchy and bureaucrats are so skilled in red-tape they could bag few medals in floor event at international sports meets. Their focus is more in ‘managing’ defence scams and ensuring kickbacks reach intended beneficiaries before the deals are inked. Not surprising a veteran diplomat who had switched from IAS to IFS says when he was posted to MoD, his first brief was to forget everything else and concentrate how much money can be made from procurements in the pipeline.

Pakistan also talks war because destructive power of weapons have gone up exponentially – witness US-NATO didn’t respond conventionally to Russian advance on Crimea.  In the India-Pakistan context, window does exists for conventional conflict  but Pakistan feels India lacks the political will, especially with PLA deploying in POK-Pakistan. But the most important reason why Pakistan talks of war and being nuclear armed, is to avoid mention of sub-conventional conflict. She knows that the day India launches coordinated sub-conventional conflict against Pakistan; her conventional forces will be running in circles despite the nuclear arsenal. Ironically no Indian government, including the present one, has even given it serious thought, leave aside taking cogent action.

India has been suffering terrorism for decades, India has not bridged the sub-conventional deficit vis-à-vis Pakistan due multiple reasons and misconception.

The general feeling belief would be that giving Army free hand can resolve the issue, is wrong. Both government and Army Chief keep saying that there is free-hand to the Army. But small-time cross-border actions are only one small part of sub-conventional response. Incidentally, Army’s Sub-Conventional Doctrine under tutelage of then Defence Minister AK Anthony during UPA II has flowery clichés like ‘Iron Fist in Velvet Glove’ but pertains only to operations own side of the border, not across. But it must be understood that compared to that compared to Pakistani Army Chief who controls Pakistan, his Indian counterpart only heads the Arm. Therefore, Army’s sphere of sub-conventional warfare is limited – which it is doing depending on initiatives of commanders on ground.

Some scholars feel that what is happening in J&K is not Pakistan’s proxy war because proxy only means ‘mercenary’ forces. This is playing with semantics. Whether Pakistan infiltrates its own terrorists or instigates Individuals for jihad and violence from within India is as good as mercenaries. In fact Pakistan had placed armed modules pan-India in 10 states over and above J&K way back in 1992-1993. It must be understood that Pakistan’s proxy war in India is across the board in India, not in J&K alone. This itself would indicate that total response to Pakistan’s proxy war cannot be assigned to the Army. It is the National Security Advisor who must assume full responsibility for sub-conventional conflict against Pakistan. Much to the chagrin of some, precious little is happening presently unless we believe in ‘Emperor’s Clothes’. The results on ground are there to see.

In the current setting political will to adequately respond Pakistan’s sub-conventional war can’t be a problem; NSA Ajit Kumat Doval is not only Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s right-hand man, as all NSA’s are, but his son Surya organizes Indian Diaspora mega events during Modi’s foreign trips. Therefore, there should be no problem for Doval to convince the Prime Minister what needs to be done. There is also a misconception that India will have to create terrorists organizations, which is misnomer. All that is needed is to optimize enemy fault-lines. We must also acknowledge that R&AW cannot do this by themselves. External intelligence must have appropriate mix of Special Forces. The irony is that Afghanistan is ready to collaborate in dealing with Pakistan at the sub-conventional level, but we are not. Lack of intellect; not knowing how to organize it, fear of failure, focus on internal security and downing Opposition to win elections could be contributing to such stance.  

Defence Minister has ‘cleared’ establishment of Armed Forces Special Operations Division but it will not answer all woes at the sub-conventional level. Policy makers must understand this. Periodic warnings by RM, HM, and Army Chief are meaningless. It is time to act and let actions speak for themselves.