Indian Defence Review

If Taiwan is annexed by China, the PLA Navy would be able to extend its reach to the second island chain, right down to Guam, the Marianas and even some other smaller islands in the central Pacific as important are the Taiwanese ports, which would provide Chinese submarines quick access to the deep waters of the Pacific. Therefore, Taiwan should logically remain critical to US interests both strategically and militarily. To the rest of the world including India, China’s annexation of Taiwan will turn China into a worse rogue than Nazi Germany thereby endangering peace and stability in every part of the world.

Earlier this year, the Chinese media went berserk when Taiwan’s national flag was unfurled at the Taiwanese Representative’s residence in Washington DC on New Year’s Day. In Beijing, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said China had protested to the US about the January 01 ceremony, requesting Washington to “act with discretion when dealing with Taiwan-related issues.” The US State Department responded it was not given advance notice about the flag hoisting ceremony and that “nothing has changed” in the status of the US-Taiwanese relationship while adding that the US remains committed to the One-China policy.

Interestingly, the Taipei Times newspaper cited the Taiwanese representative to the US, Shen Lyu-shun, as saying his office had notified the Obama administration before the flag hoisting ceremony on January 01 and received US approval provided the ceremony was low-profile and not televised. Taiwan has the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office in Washington, as Taiwan’s mission; same as in India, while India too recognised the One-China policy some years ago. The Taiwanese flag hoisting in Washington DC was obviously a diplomatic signal to China as her self-proclaimed One-China Policy is bursting at the seams in a bid to grab more and more territory in complete disregard to global norms and sensitivities of other nations. But the fact remains that while Taiwan may be referred as Republic of China (Taiwan) because of overbearing Chinese pressure globally, Taiwan is very much a separate country and has enough self-esteem and pride to remain so.

Taiwan, China and the United Nations

Not very many would be aware that Taiwan was a founding member of the United Nations and held the seat of what is now with China on the Security Council and other UN bodies as late as 1971. It was in 1971 that Taiwan was expelled from the Security Council and other such UN bodies under Resolution 2758 at the behest of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and was replaced by the latter. The irony is that every year since 1992, Taiwan has petitioned the UN for entry, but its application has not made past the recommendation committee because of the PRC. This is one major reason that China is dead against the expansion of the UNSC’s permanent membership, especially inclusion of those countries having friendly relations with Taiwan.

But is it not ironic that in an era where opinions are being geared to provide Palestine entry into the UN, a country like Taiwan that has remained independent since past over six and a half decades is denied so, best part being that it had such status till 1971? Very significantly, Article 3 of the United Nations provides that original Members of the United Nations shall be the states which, having participated in the United Nations Conference on International Organization at San Francisco, or having previously signed the Declaration by United Nations of January 01, 1942, signed the present Charter and ratified it in accordance with Article 110. By this decree, Taiwan was very much a member of the United Nations having participated in all these events and affixed its signatures. In addition to such above participation and being signatory to these, Taiwan had also signed and ratified the April 18, 1961, Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, as also its refined version on December 19, 1969.

Chinese obduracy in doing down Taiwan did not cease with Resolution 2758, which back-stabbed the political status of Taiwan. It is only in 2010 that Taiwan was invited as observer to attend the World Health Assembly but under the name of Chinese Taipei; this despite countries like the US and Japan continuously supporting Taiwan’s bid for membership of the WHO since 1997. Interestingly, the Republic of China (Taiwan) is a member of the Unrepresented Nations and People’s Organization (UNPO), represented by a Taiwan Government funded organisation; the Taiwan Foundation for Democracy (TFD) under the name “Taiwan”. Incidentally, the UNPO headquartered at The Hague (Netherlands) has 42 group members including Taiwan, Tibet, East Turkestan, Baluchistan, and Gilgit-Baltistan, besides others.

So, you have this ridiculous situation where China insists that the Republic of China (better known as Taiwan) should call itself Chinese Taipei. This despite the fact, that China has never ever exercised sovereignty over Taiwan. Historically, the Republic of China (ROC) has all along exercised control over Taiwan and its islands and continues to do so. ROC President Ma Ying-jeou has categorically stated, “The Republic of China is a sovereign country, and mainland China is part of our territory according to the Constitution. Therefore, our relations with the mainland are not international relations. It is a special relationship.”

The Government of Republic of China (Taiwan) was founded on the Constitution of the ROC and its Three Principles of the People, which pointedly states that the ROC “shall be a Democratic Republic of the People, to be governed By the People and For the People”. The bottom-line is that Taiwan is an island country which for all practical purposes been independent since 1950, but which China regards as a rebel region that must be reunited with the mainland – by force if necessary.

Presently, China is following a policy of gradual economic, social and cultural integration with Taiwan while not explicitly ruling out the use of force. The mockery of the Chinese territorial claims is that while China attacked and overthrew the Kuomintang regime, it is on the basis of the Kuomintang maps and sketches discovered later that China has put forward the claims about the 9-dash line and arbitrarily extended her EEZ in total disregard of UNCLOS and international norms of global commons; claiming the whole of East China Sea and parts of South China Sea. The multiple claimants to the South China Sea include China, Taiwan, Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei and Malaysia but the claims of both Taiwan and China are exactly the same – identically represented on maps of both these countries.

Taiwan and International Relations

Taiwan has relations with numerous countries but the official diplomatic ties are with 23 countries including three countries of Africa, 11 countries in the Americas, six countries in Oceania, and in Europe with the Holy City of Vatican. In other countries, Taiwan maintains Representative Office or Cultural and Economic Missions. Similarly, the diplomatic missions in Taiwan include embassies and representative offices. Due to the issue of special political status and the so called One-China Policy, the Republic of China (Taiwan) is recognized by 23 countries; 20 of them having their embassy in Taipei In addition, some 50 countries, which do not have diplomatic relations with the Republic of China, have established trade offices and other unofficial offices in Taiwan, which have a wide array of titles. Taiwan is also represented at the European Union through the Taipei Representative Office for the EU and Belgium located at Brussels. Similarly, Taiwan is represented at the World Trade Organization through its Permanent Mission of the Separate Customs Territory of Taiwan, Penghu, Kinmen and Matsu located at Geneva.

Joint Statements by the US-Japan Security Consultative Committee of 2005, 2011 and 2013 outline common strategic objectives for both countries, which include encouraging peaceful resolution of issues concerning the Taiwan Strait through dialogue and encourage China’s responsible and constructive role in regional stability and prosperity, its cooperation on global issues, and its adherence to international norms of behavior, while building mutual trust. Not only is Taiwan a staunch supporter of the Official Development Assistance (ODA), Taiwan’s Foreign Assistance and International Cooperation projects are managed by the International Cooperation and Development Fund. The 1979 Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) passed by the US Congress is the bedrock of the Taiwan-US defence relations. The act provides for – one, the US to intervene militarily if the PRC attacks or invades Taiwan; two, the US will make available to Taiwan such defence articles and defence services in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defence capabilities – decision with regard to the nature and quantity of defence services to be determined by the President and Congress; three, US will consider any effort to determine the future of Taiwan by other than peaceful means, including by boycotts and embargos, and; threat to the peace and security of the Western Pacific area are of grave concern to the US.

Despite periodic whimpering and protests by China, successive US administrations have sold weapon systems and armament to Taiwan over the years. US weapons sales to Taiwan include the AAV7A1 amphibious assault vehicles, the AH-64D Apache Longbow helicopters, the UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters, Kidd-Class Destroyers equipped with SM-2 air-defence missiles and a joint combat management system, the Patriot Missile Systems, command and control systems, and early warning radars. Taiwan’s request to the US for purchase of Aegis Class Destroyers, submarines and F-16C/D fighters, have led to protracted negotiations and discussions.

In 2002, Taiwan again requested four Arleigh Burke-class, Aegis-equipped destroyers, for delivery in 2010 and at a cost of about $4.8 billion but did not get any US response. In July 2012, Taiwan signed an agreement with the US for 142 x F- 16A/B fighter upgrade programme at a cost of $3.7 billion, which is expected to be completed by 2021. In 2014, President Ma Ying-jeou stated Taiwan’s resolve for an Indigenous Diesel Submarine programme, potentially with foreign technology to build submarines for training in anti-submarine warfare.

In April 2014, while reaffirming the Taiwan Relations Act, the US House of Representatives agreed to authorise the sale to Taiwan of four second-hand US warships, much to the chagrin and protests by the Chinese Ministry of National Defence. The Chinese defence ministry website said, “The US side ignored China’s strong opposition, and insisted on passing the bill pushing weapons sales to Taiwan. This act is highly damaging, and doubtless will seriously interfere in and damage the development of Sino-US military ties and the peaceful development of cross-strait relations.”

As part of mutual military cooperation and guidance, the US and Taiwan conduct the ‘Han Kuang’ joint force exercise every year. Periodic Regional Security Forums held in Taiwan also have participation, besides US and Taiwan, by other Indo-Pacific countries. US support is vital to Taiwan, including supplies of US arms while maintaining a ‘One-China’ policy stance. The US-China-Taiwan conundrum undoubtedly is a tricky affair albeit the Taiwanese have genuine apprehension how much of US support they would get in the event of China actually using force.

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Taiwan became a multi-party democracy in early 1990s. It is a major producer of computer technology, which constitutes bulk of its exports to China. Though Taiwan signed a trade pact with China in 2010, China’s increasingly all round aggressively hegemonic posture led to hundreds of young activists in March last year occupying Taiwan’s parliament building in mass protest against the trade pact aimed at forging closer ties with Beijing. Resultantly, the government’s pro-China policy led to a crushing defeat for the ruling Kuomintang (KMT) party in local elections forcing Ma Ying-jeou to step down as Chairman of KMT.

While the next Presidential elections are due in January 2016, the pro-independence opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), hopes to build on the momentum of its success in local elections. It goes without saying that China will try her utmost to influence the Presidential race in Taiwan next year. Though bulk of the Taiwan population descends from Han Chinese (about 84 per cent), in a survey conducted by the National Chengchi University late last year, only 3.5 per cent of the respondents identified themselves as Chinese. 60.6 per cent identified themselves as exclusively Taiwanese while 32.5 per cent identified themselves as both Chinese and Taiwanese.

Interestingly, in a similar survey conducted during March 2009, 49 per cent respondents had considered themselves exclusively Taiwanese. The rise from 49 per cent in 2009 to 60.6 percent in 2014 is interesting, indicating the resolve to remain independent. More importantly, in another survey conducted in July 2009, 82.8 per cent of respondents opined that ROC and the PRC as two separate countries, with each developing on its own.

Taiwan is referred to as one of the four Asian Tigers; other three being Hong Kong, South Korea and Singapore. As of 2008, more than $150 billion had been invested in the PRC by Taiwanese companies, and about ten per cent of the Taiwanese labour force was working in the PRC, primarily running their own businesses. Today Taiwan has a dynamic, capitalist, export-driven economy with gradually decreasing state involvement in investment and foreign trade. Taiwan’s total trade in 2010 reached an all-time high at $526.04 billion, according to Taiwan’s Ministry of Finance. Both exports and imports for the year reached record levels, totaling $274.64 billion and $251.4 billion, respectively. China-Taiwan trade in January-February 2015 amounted to $27.15 billion, up two per cent year on year, accounting for 4.4 per cent of the total volume of China’s external trade. China’s export to Taiwan was $6.31billion, up 12.5 per cent year on year, and China’s imports from Taiwan was $20.84 billion, down 0.8 per cent year on year. Taiwan is China’s seventh largest trade partner and fifth largest source of imports.

India-Taiwan Relations

Taiwan maintains the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre in India at New Delhi while India maintains the India-Taipei Association office in Taiwan at Taipei. In December 2012, the Indian Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) approved the opening of a branch office (read Consulate) of the Taipei Economic and Cultural Centre in Chennai. Both countries are making efforts to significantly expand bilateral trade and investments, especially in the fields of information technology, energy, telecommunications and electronics. Major Indian exports to Taiwan include Waste Oil and Naptha, Cereals, Cotton, Organic Chemicals, Copper, Aluminum and Food Residues. Major Taiwanese exports to India include integrated circuits, machinery and other electronic products. India is also keen to attract Taiwanese investment particularly in hi-tech and labour-intensive industries.

By the end of 2013, more than 70 Taiwanese enterprises had invested or set up factories in India, with cumulative investments amounting to more than $1.4 billion. In 2013, the bilateral trade between the two countries amounted to $6.171 billion. Today, more than 80 Taiwanese companies and entities have presence in India. Bilateral trade and Taiwanese investments in India are likely to grow exponentially after conclusion of the FTA between the two countries, a move initiated by the MEA in 2011.

As part of science and technology cooperation, 29 Indo-Taiwan joint proposals were under implementation last year, as follow up to MoU signed between Taiwan’s TECC and India’s ITA during 2007, and another MoU between Taiwan’s Academia Sinica and Indian National Science Academy signed in 2012. In the field of education, MoUs to recognise each other’s university degrees was signed between the Foundation for International Cooperation in Higher Education of Taiwan (FICHET) and the Association of Indian Universities (AIU) in 2010. This has resulted in close cooperation and frequent exchanges between the two countries.

Four Taiwan Education Centres have been set up in India, as platforms for academic cooperation including teaching of Mandarin. Knowledge of Taiwanese language gives the advantage of having the ability to read and understand both Chinese and Japanese, including understanding posts on the Chinese media and internet. Taiwan Scholarships and Huayu Enrichment Scholarships are being provided to India students. Taiwanese universities and colleges also provide scholarships to attract outstanding Indian students. On an average, about 600 Indian students are studying in Taiwan annually.

Strategic Importance of Taiwan

China is obsessed with Taiwan because the CCP and the PLA have made it unification a prestige issue, especially since Taiwan holds historic importance stemming both from the civil war and the legacy of foreign intervention. More importantly, Taiwan is straddling important sea-lanes and is potential base for foreign military forces. Failure to unify Taiwan with China in future is considered by the CCP as potentially dangerous to its political hold on the country, in addition to the loss of face the PLA would suffer. Chinese concerns that Taiwan could be used as a foreign military base underscores Taiwan’s geo-strategic position.

There has been plenty speculation in the past whether the US should defend Taiwan or abandon it in favour of better US-China relations. However, it is clear that purely from the point of view of its geo-strategic location, the US will continue to have great interest in maintaining the status quo; a Taiwan free from Chinese control. China, having added her first aircraft carrier, is already in the process of establishing her first carrier battle group off the Hainan coast. China has massive plans for expansion of a blue water navy, including for dominating the Indo-Pacific. Purely in geographical terms, China feels it is somewhat boxed in by the proximate chain of islands extending southward from Japan, through the Ryukyu’s, Taiwan, the Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia. That is why her extended claims in the waters of the Pacific and frantic activities to reclaim reefs, establish military facilities and airstrips, extended ADIGs  and the like.

If Taiwan is annexed by China, the PLA Navy would be able to extend its reach to the second island chain, right down to Guam, the Marianas and even some other smaller islands in the central Pacific. As important are the Taiwanese ports, which would provided Chinese submarines quick access to the deep waters of the Pacific. Therefore, Taiwan should logically remain critical to US interests both strategically and militarily. To the rest of the world including India, China’s annexation of Taiwan will turn China into a worse rogue than Nazi Germany thereby endangering peace and stability in every part of the world.

The “One-China” Gag

What exactly is this euphuism about One-China? When China began propounding this theory it only was about Tibet (annexed by China) and Taiwan (planned to be annexed). But what is One China today if not a gag when China expanded her so called One China umbrella to include vast tracts of waters of the Pacific, ECS, SCS, islands and reefs, Aksai Chin, Shaksgam Valley, added claims on Indian Territories including 90,000 square kilometres of the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh – the latter claim proffered as late as year 2005.

The real problem is that China’s thinking continues to be driven by the Middle Kingdom syndrome. If China bullies Taiwan to be called Chinese Taipei or Republic of China, what stops her demand tomorrow that Arunachal Pradesh be called Chinese Arunachal Pradesh or Chinese South Tibet? It is about time that the Chinese bluff be called and China be given the shut up call. The fact remains that China annexed Tibet and East Turkestan and her illogical and illegal claims to the state of Arunachal Pradesh have nullified whatever support India lent to her pleadings to support the One-China policy. If China wants continued Indian support to the One-China policy, let her first clearly define what One-China implies.

China has “guaranteed Pakistan’s territorial integrity” without clarifying her stand on POK, is deploying missiles in Gilgit-Baltistan, is driving the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor through Indian Territories under illegal occupation of Pakistan and provides tacit support to Pakistan’s proxy war against India. Media recently reported that with active involvement of Chinese intelligence, nine militant groups of Northeast India including the NSCN-Khaplang and the ULFA faction led by Paresh Baruah (sheltered by China in the past several months), have formed the “United National Liberation Front of West South East Asia”. So where does the question of continuing to support One-China arise?

Upgrading India-Taiwan Relations

From the foregoing, it should be clear that any past Indian support to the One-China policy has been rendered irrelevant because of subsequent Chinese actions. At the same time, One China should simply be consigned to the dustbin, without further mention. On the other hand, if China ever raises the issue, she should first be asked to clearly define what One China is. The fact is that the global community must facilitate the official entry of Taiwan into the international arena. Isn’t it ironic that on one hand there are musings to provide Palestine space at the international level, Taiwan is denied the same?

When the UN General Assembly voted to grant Palestine non-member status at the United Nations while expressing the urgent need for it to be made full member as far back as November 29, 2012, why not Taiwan? In any case, If China herself has veered from ‘One-China’ to ‘One China Two Systems’ that gives us leverage to establish diplomatic relations with Taiwan, same way as we have with Hong Kong. The alternative is to keep humouring China, expand the India-Taipei Association office and add diplomats and military officers.

The Embassy of China at New Delhi is posted with a host of serving military officers over and above those in its military wing, the cover being compulsory military service. So it stands to logic that the Taiwanese missions abroad too would also have similar arrangements. Then China also has PLA presence (including sprinkling of Special Forces) in garb of civilians in her development projects globally, as well as in companies operating abroad. Logically, Taiwan would also be doing likewise. This notwithstanding, much can be gained mutually between Indian and Taiwanese security forces.

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The FTA would automatically enhance our economic relations, in addition to expanding people-to-people relations, education, culture, and science and technology cooperation. China has very carefully invested in countries surrounding India with unambiguous strategic objectives while India was fixated more towards Look East. It is only now that the present government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi has started to engage countries on China’s periphery. To this end, Taiwan is an important country with which we must develop strategic cooperation.