Indian Defence Review

With the drastically evolving militant landscape of Pakistan, several small militant groups have begun to emerge. Operating in the shadows, they are proving to be highly efficient in their attacks and capabilities.

The emergence of these groups can be attributed the cooperative style of dealing with already pre-existing militant groups in Pakistan and Afghanistan. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan has certainly presented a conducive environment for a multitude of smaller groups to gain access to the weapons left by them on the Afghan soil. Still, acquiring them presents a rather difficult task, given the weapons are monitored by the Taliban Afghan government.

Hence the logic would serve to maintain a symbiotic relation with the Afghan Taliban while carrying their objectives. This is a common and a well known trend which has been observed in case of Al Qaeda and its branch Al Qaeda in Indian Subcontinent (AQIS).

Additionally, the mutual understanding between the newer groups with the Taliban, comes from their admiration of Afghan Taliban who have transitioned from an insurgent group to a de facto government.

Viewing Afghan-Taliban as an example, many Jihadist militant groups are now adopting strategies, which not only focus on a creation of an “Islamic” proto-state, but also align with the policies of the Taliban’s Afghan Interim Government (AIG) to some extent. The AIG is known to have controlled the groups and has also provided the required safe havens to them. Pakistan has consistently accused the Emirates of Afghanistan for sheltering the anti Pakistan elements on the Afghan soil and initially had hoped to achieve a peace settlement with the TTP through Taliban mediation. However, the negotiations fell through and the ceasefire from the TTP was called off.

The matter of recognition of the Durand Line by the Afghans as the International Border, still remains a looming concern and is resulting in the frequent border skirmishes between the Afghan and Pakistani forces. Amongst these prevalent factors, several groups either militant or insurgent have seized the opportunity to rebel against Pakistan’s claim on areas, which they reckon are Afghan land. Given the ferocity with which many splinter groups and independent militant organizations are erupting astride the Durand Line, it is apparent that Pakistan will be faced with the impending Taliban threat on either side of the border.

A large chunk of these groups are linked with the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and Hafiz Gul Bahadur (HGB).

On July 13^th 2023, the Khorasan Diary reported, many groups had links with TTP and HGB, which acted as their parent body. Amongst these, several groups such as Tehreek-e-Jihad Pakistan (TJP), Ansarul Jihad (AuJ), Majlis-e-Askari, Jaish-e-Fursan-e-Muhammad, Jabhat al-Junud al-Mahdi (headed by Amir Sufiyan) and Jabhat Ansar al-Mahdi Khorasan (JAMK) were mentioned.

In most cases, most of these groups have clearly stated their affiliation with their parent organization and their intention to enforce Sharia law in Pakistan while confining their activities only to its territory.

Among these groups, Jabhat Ansar al-Mahdi Khorasan (JAMK) has managed to gain greater influence and traction in a short time. JAMK is reported to have first made its presence known in late 2022. By 2023, it started to claim attacks, which were solely targeting Pakistan’s security forces, especially in the areas of Bannu District of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Province (KP).

It has been ascertained that the outfit is a part of HGB and has been ordained as one of its main wings. Like the other jihadist groups surfacing in the area, JAMK is also a product of the aftermath of US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the symbiosis of several anti Pakistan jihadi affiliates.

This type of cooperation between JAMK, TTP and Tehreek-e-Lashkar-e-Islam Pakistan (TLIP) has led to several coordinated attacks since late 2023, especially in the Bannu District, particularly the areas of Jani Khel and Baka Khel. Other claimed attacks by the group include the ones on the Pakistani security forces in Lakki Marwat District, KP in 2023. The outfit has been successful at orchestrating large frequency of attacks in several other districts in KP as well.

It is important to mention that the chief Commander of JAMK, Sadiqullah, hails from the Wazir tribe of Baka Khel in Bannu District. This also provides the group with the necessary HUMINT and the logistics to garner traction and orchestrate the attacks in KP. It can be assumed the advantage to the group can be derived from the familiarity of the terrain and understanding amongst the locals in the area who also seem to perceive Pakistan as an illegal occupant of their area.

In terms of the leadership, the group has no designated deputy emir but it annually appoints new individuals for various departments within the group. This process is very similar to the workings of the TTP.

As mentioned by JAMK spokesman Zubair Waziristani, the group has five sections: the al-Nusra Department, the Institute of Research and Publication, the Department of War, the Department of Intelligence, and the Central Shura.

It can be inferred that the group like Taliban has a structured system of governing in place and is resorting to an intellectual approach when compared to prior militants who were illiterate and attacked from the mountains in guerrilla style warfare. The utilization of social media platforms to advertise and claim attacks unlike their shy HGB parent organization has also been linked with their growing outreach and recognition.

The group formally inaugurated its media branch on Nov 21^st 2023, called the Masoor Media. Through this medium, the official logo of the group, videos and claims of attacks by JAMK was propagated. Post November 21, the videos produced by the group shared similarities with those produced by the TTP. One such example was one series dedicated to the al-Badr Battalion suicide squad as reported by the Khorasan Diary on November 22, 2023.

On November 27^th 2023, according to Pakistan’s Dawn, the group claimed itsattack on Pakistan Army convoy in Baka Khel Area of Bannu District, resulting in the loss of lives two locals with ten individuals leftinjured. Since beginning of 2024, JAMK has already claimed  eight other attacks in the Jani Khel and Baka Khel areas of Bannu District.

Conclusion

It is apparent that the suitable environment constituting to the nature vs nurture theory, JAMK is expected to be an imminent threat to Pakistan. Its unpredictable style of orchestrating attacks, fielded by a lucrative and supportive sentiments of the locals residing in its area of its operations has been advantageous. Also, the tactful use of technology to gain prominence has served the purpose for this group.

It is evident the group enjoys the support of both TTP and HGB.

It was reported on Nov 26^th 2023, Pakistan had made a formal request to the AIG to hand over Hafiz Gul Bahadur, who it claims is residing in the southern Afghan provinces of Paktika and Khost.

Pakistan also stated that the TTP, TJP, and HGB are recruiting the Afghans for fidayeen operations in Pakistan. However, the AIG has refused all allegations made by Pakistan and instead believes that Pakistan may be warming up to its arch-rival, ISIS Khorasan (ISK) for orchestrating clandestine activities against the Taliban government. The other factor of the Afghan refoulement conducted by the Pakistani government has not sat well with the Taliban, who had initially requested leniency towards the Afghan refugees in Pakistan.

It is evident with Pakistan’s dreams dissipated without a hope for strategic depth in Afghanistan and its relations curdling with Taliban, the rancid environment of an impending security threat on either side of Durand will certainly be challenging.