Indian Defence Review

As of 25th March 2024, Pakistan’s preparations have commenced to initiate the second phase of the repatriation of the Afghan refugees. Despite the ambiguity on the precise number of the refugees or the undocumented Afghans who were exited out from Pakistan, the state has resolved to repatriate at least one million ‘documented’ Afghans back to their homeland.

It is reported that the Pakistani Interior Ministry had already promulgated the necessary directives to the district authorities and law enforcement agencies to accelerate the mapping, tracing and collection of data of the Afghan Citizen Card (ACC) holders in the country.

According to Dawn newspaper, March 25th was issued as the deadline for the completion of the required exercise to launch the second phase. Pakistan is yet to issue the date for the repatriation of ACC holders, but it is expected to begin sometime in summer upon the approval of their federal government. The efficiency in the process is expected to be expedited post Ramadan, following the completion of the survey on ACC holders, presumably before April 30th.

On basis of the UNHCR reports, 2.18 million documented Afghan refugees currently reside in Pakistan, which includes 1.3 million refugees with Proof of Registration (PoR) cards. This was reported on basis of the census conducted in 2006-07. It was also reported, there were 8,80,000 refugees who were issued ACCs post the registration drive in 2017. Measures were taken to cross reference the exact numbers with the National Database and Registration Authority to ensure the completion of the process in entirety.

The Pakistani government is expected to face the tedious process of differentiating between the holders of ACCs and those with PoRs, which would be essentially a tricky process given the pre-existing tensions between Pakistan and the Emirates of Afghanistan. The Taliban has found Pakistan’s National Plan to repatriate the Afghans as unacceptable while asking for more clemency towards the refugees from Pakistan.

Despite Kabul’s response and the criticism from the UN and various human rights organizations, Islamabad remains undeterred. It plans to extend its repatriation program to documented Afghans as well. According to them, the preponderance of evidence of terror attacks in Pakistan is owed to the influx of the unregistered Afghan nationals residing in Pakistan, who may be trained militants posing as civilians or refugees.

It may also be assumed that the second phase of the repatriation program involving all ACC holders, PoRs or even documented Afghan nationals could be attributed as a preventive measure due to the strained relations with the Afghan Taliban and fear of activation of Afghan sleeper cells working in conjunction with Tehreek-e -Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

The other reason to factor in would most certainly stem from Pakistan’s own economic situation in the doldrums with the illegal non-tax paying migrants draining its limited resources.

With Pakistan drowning in its own economic crisis, it is logical to comprehend its inability to support or provide asylum for refugees. It remains as a non signatory in regards to the UN Refugee Convention, so the Society for Human Rights and Prisoners’ Aid (SHARP) has been responsible for protecting the rights or providing relief to refugees, IDPs, women, juvenile delinquents, street children, prisoners and etc. However, due to its long extensive administrative processes, many refugees are left in a lurch due lack of proper protection or care or the legitimate required documents. For this, the UNHCR has also criticised the organization.

In the first phase of the Repatriation plan, the deadline of Nov 1st 2023 was issued by the Pakistani government for illegal immigrants to voluntarily return to Afghanistan or to face deportation.

Post the announcement, several appeals were made by the United Nations (UN) and the International Organisation for Migration to Pakistan, requesting for reconsideration owing to the possible ramifications expected to be endured by most Afghan nationals back in their country. It is understood that the primary reason for most Afghans was to escape the Taliban regime in Afghanistan.

The plight of Afghans residing in Pakistan has not been an easy one either, with extended delays in having their visas renewed, difficulties in seeking employment, scarcity of basic food and shelter while awaiting for relocation to the third host countries. However, the choice to remain in Pakistan has been assumed to be a better choice than to face atrocities under the government of Emirates of Afghanistan.

Since Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan, it is reported that approximately 1,600,000 Afghans have sought refuge in Pakistan, Iran and Tajikistan, while 70 % amongst the refugees were women and children.

Since Pakistan’s order to send back the Afghans, several Afghan journalists and professionals in exile in Pakistan are found making appeals to the UN, Pakistani government and various International organisations to provide relief and to safeguard the interest of the Afghans who are being arbitrarily arrested in Pakistan as part of the repatriation plan. There have been several arrests and deportation cases in the recent months which have specifically targeted Afghan refugees in Pakistan, regardless of being documented.

Afghanistan and its changing social and political landscape under Taliban.

 When recounting the historical plight of the Afghans under the Taliban, it becomes necessary to first mention the treatment meted out to the Afghans by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (1996–2001). During this period, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan tried to resurrect the order of Abdur Rahman (the Iron Emir). This was initiated by trying to recreate a Pashtun majority state, focussing primarily on the northern parts of Afghanistan. Taliban established an Islamic government through Sharia law in accordance with the Hanafi school of Islamic jurisprudence. Mullah Omar also known as Amir al-Mu’minin!” (Commander of the Faithful) became the most important figure. He was especially approached to provide religious guidance and in time he rose as the most important decision maker in regards to the nation. With majority of the nation under the Sharia law and Taliban’s interpretation of Islam, there were several human rights violations in this time period.

During the Taliban rule at the time, Afghanistan saw a rise in cases of extrajudicial killings, displacement of individuals, arbitrary arrests of citizens, restrictions on education and employment of women and children, lack of free speech and expression, complete ban on entertainment etc.

Hence, Taliban’s coming to power in 2021 lead to apprehension and panic amongst the Afghans. As expected, the reports of extrajudicial executions of individuals affiliated with the former Ghani government, members of armed groups such as the National Resistance Front (NRF) and those rebelling against Taliban’s orders appeared to be widespread. Also, upon coming to power the Taliban leadership dismissed most of their foreign fighters and ordered them return to their countries. Majority of the fighters were Pakistanis.

Foreseeing the return of the Pakistani Taliban fighters, even the former PM of Pakistan Imran Khan proposed the rehabilitation of these fighters who could be assimilated back into society. However this proposal failed to develop. With the majority of individuals crossing into Pakistan whether the ex Taliban fighters or just civilians, the difficulty to assess who may be a refugee vs a militant would have posed a challenge for Pakistan’s authorities.

The fallout between Pakistan and Taliban has surely become a staunch reason for Pakistan’s enforced step in favour of refoulement of the Afghan people. There are several reports of cross-border skirmishes and air strikes along the Durand line between the Pakistani and the Afghan military personnel.

Additionally, Pakistan’s claims of the Taliban government prorating assistance to Pakistan’s proscribed terrorists has only added more fuel to the fire.

Taliban has consistently countered the Pakistani claims with denials and has supposedly attempted to broker a peace settlement between the TTP and Pakistan. This would have served Taliban’s two strategies – to look like a saviour and not a Pakistani puppet and second, to be able to aid TTP (their brothers in arms).

Taliban initially was a product of Islamic and Pashtun politico-religious movement. The group mainly consisted of students of madrasas from Southern Afghanistan, Taliban had a majority members from the Pashtun community. It promoted its anti-Western propaganda with a mixed ideologies from the Pashtunwali tribal code and from the Salafist teachings. According to Taliban, all the different sects of Islam remained foreign to Afghanistan. Due to its stringent emphasis of its own ideologies, it still continues to persecute citizens who remain different from its beliefs.

Taliban had always received support from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates in the past. As a result of the affability shown by Pakistan towards Taliban, Pakistan has tried to exploit the three fold Frontier of Afghanistan in order to utilize it as a way to carry covert asymmetric warfare and to also use it in terms of its National security policy.

Pakistan’s military tried to reinforce Afghan resistance on the Islamic model in Afghanistan with the motive to eliminate the Afghan identity and its nationalism.

However, Pakistan’s negligence in not focusing on the Durand line and relying more on its transnational networks, has posed as a problem for itself. It is gradually losing influence and control over the frontier areas and also the cross border Islamist groups it has supported in the past. This explains Pakistani ISI’s willingness to make the Dabori agreement with the notorious ISIS Khorasan (ISK). With TTP rattling the peace of Pakistan, ISI has chosen to join forces with the arch-rival of Taliban- ISK, who seeks monopoly over jihad by discrediting Taliban as a watered down Islamic jihadist.

 In a recent article for the Guardian, a former TTP commander, Ehsanullah Ehsaan not only highlighted the names of the ISK leaders hosted by the ISI at their guesthouses but also stressed on how ISI planned to wage a “Kashmir style” proxy war in Afghanistan. He further explained the utilization of a military cover to push the ISK recruits across the Durand line in garb of cross border skirmishes between the two nations. Given that the ISI’s modus operandi is to smuggle the ISK cadre into Afghanistan, it may be assumed that the exodus of the Afghans back to their homeland may incorporate the ISI recruited ISK individuals during the refoulement of the Afghans.

Another threat to Pakistan also comes from two Pakistani Pashtun nationalist political parties, the Awami National Party and the Pashtunkhwa Milli Awami Party. Both look at restructuring of Pakistan to unite all Pashtun regions in FATA, NWFP, and northern Baluchistan into a new province of Pashtunkhwa. Pakistan, at the moment remains embroiled in terror attacks, insurgencies as well as the ongoing protests from many communities such as the Pashtuns, the Baloch, the Sindhis, the Sikhs, Shias and Hazaras.

In areas around the bordering towns of the Durand line, the locals view Durand as an artificial entity while rejecting Pakistan’s imposition of the international border. Due to this, several locals are left disgruntled while they continue to provide safe havens to insurgents and individuals who may belong to any Pakistan proscribed terror groups. It is believed that majority of such individuals may belong to Afghan origins while taking orders from commanders residing in Afghanistan. Since the historical and cultural similarities are same between the locals residing on either side of the border, it would remain difficult for Pakistan to differentiate between the nationalities of the inhabitants in that area.

It may be assumed that Pakistan, in an effort to curb its own security threats, has resorted to a drastic step of purging the Afghans out of Pakistan. While terror groups and undocumented illegals may be expunged from its soil, Pakistan still continues to struggle with the bloodless battle of protests carried by its own citizens against its own establishment for acts of inhumane proportions.