Following the signing of the BDCA between India and China, much has been written. The follow up official explanation extols great strides having been made by introducing the four ‘concepts’ of: management of activity near the border; meetings between the border and military personnel, regional commanders, ministries plus existing mechanisms in the ‘Working Mechanism on Consultation and Coordination on Border Affairs’ and the ‘Annual Defence Dialogue’; joint celebrations, sports, cultural activities, small exercises, and; not to follow or tail patrols of the other side, particularly in areas there is no common understanding of the LAC plus commitment on both sides to exercise maximum restraint. So far so good but a closer examination of the BDCA reveals that this great achievement of innovative ‘conceptual thoughts’ is nothing more than giving a new format to the same old agreements that have willfully been broken by China periodically and in greater frequency in the current year, incremental nibbling of territory being upped to single patrols penetrating 20-30 kms deep.
…the BDCA has been highly regressive in China having tricked India into agreeing not follow or tail Chinese patrols in all the areas there is no common understanding of the LAC.
In fact, the BDCA has been highly regressive in China having tricked India into agreeing not follow or tail Chinese patrols in all the areas there is no common understanding of the LAC. This virtually gives China the handle to violate the LAC at will and to the very depths it wants to. Victory celebrations were on display in the unprecedented media coverage accorded to the visit of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh by Beijing during his China visit, signing of the BDCA and its aftermath, akin to humouring those that have been cleverly bamboozled.
Our spin doctors in the government would not dare to explain what exactly is the achievement over the previous agreements; Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility Along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas signed on 7th September 1993, another Agreement on Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field Along the Line of Actual Control in the India-China Border Areas, the Protocol on Modalities for the Implementation of Confidence Building Measures in the Military Field Along the Line of Actual Control in India-China Border Areas signed on 11th April 2005 and the Agreement on Establishment of a Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China Border Affairs signed on 17th January 2012.
What is worse is that some other officials are heaving a sigh of relief by saying that they expected a ‘much harsher’ BDCA in China’s favour.
Privately, some diplomats sheepishly stress that the improvement is only “marginal” but that too is face saving since this marginal improvement is supposedly based on addition of two new border meeting points – Lipulekh and Dichu. But then perhaps they themselves are unaware that the decision to add these two border meeting points had already been taken jointly seventeen years ago, in 1996. What is worse is that some other officials are heaving a sigh of relief by saying that they expected a ‘much harsher’ BDCA in China’s favour. This is indicative of the intensity of the psychological victory that China has scored over India’s ruling hierarchy.
Not only can we not take the initiative in proposing any agreement, we fail to read in between the lines but then we also failed to decipher the psychological challenge of the Chinese intrusion in Depsang (April 2013) and foolishly agreed to dismantle the military structures in Chumar pre-conditioned to Chinese withdrawal to our disadvantage. Such foolhardiness was also mirrored during the Manmohan-Nawaz Sharif meet on 29 September. Nawaz Sharif reportedly spoke of India’s support for Baloch militants which was rejected by Manmohan Singh but then Nawaz Sharif slyly got through an agreement for charging national security advisors of both countries to discuss and allay each other’s concerns; so wrote Maleeha Lodhi in ‘The News’ on October 08, 2013 in her article ‘State of Uncertainty’. Any diplomat would tell you that this is an oblique admission that India is supporting terrorists and insurgents in Pakistan. Ironically, both during the Manmohan-Nawaz Sharif meet in the US and during the signing of the BDCA in Beijing our Foreign Minister and NSA were present. So much so for statecraft !
There is no doubt that China wants to resolve the boundary issue on her terms but no one knows what her eventual terms are as her ambitions and territorial claims are perpetually expanding,
There is no doubt that China wants to resolve the boundary issue on her terms but no one knows what her eventual terms are as her ambitions and territorial claims are perpetually expanding, having tasted the fruits of this approach in Tibet, Aksai Chin, Xinjiang, Aksai Chin, Shaksgam, Ladakh and that is why the claim to Arunachal Pradesh, parts of Bhutan, East China Sea, South China Sea so on and so forth. The catch in our case is that no matter where and how deep Chinese intrude, they will keep repeating that they are within their own territory, on their side of the LAC, for under the Tianxia (天下; “under heaven”) concept, Chinese perceive all territories under the sun belonging to them.
The irony is that while China has mastered the art of ambiguity and deception, her ‘Doctrine of Pre-emption and Surprise’ encompassing surprise, deception and shock exposing the mockery of her peace homilies, in sharp contrast to these realities the border defence and border management in India has been hijacked by the Foreign Minister and the NSA. As it is there is plenty of discord between the MEA diplomats and the NSA, latter quite clear that the NSA should actually go by his acronym that his role is that of an ‘advisor’ which he is overstepping. But the bigger blunder is that the border management has in major parts been taken away from the purview of the military while para-military forces have been interjected without placing them under command of the military. This has been specifically done in areas there is no common understanding of the LAC, where now under the BDCA we can’t even follow or trail Chinese patrols. So the Chinese are laughing all the way home.
China aims to emerge the sole Asian power by 2020 and a global leader by 2050. It is unlikely to give up its policy to keep India in check. With her presence in Gilgit-Baltistan, she could have prevailed upon Pakistan to facilitate the South-South corridor by opening her land borders for trade between Eurasia-CAR-Afghanistan-South Asia-Southeast Asia but she has chosen otherwise. She will continue to use the carrot and stick policy against a pacifist and reactive India that displays defensive mentality, and continue to play Pakistan card at least in near future, concurrently shrinking India’s influence in the carefully crafted ‘string of pearls’. How much China is sincere in implementing the BDCA will perhaps become clear much before the next elections. The question now is will the politico–bureaucratic establishment under the next government stop dithering from indulging in strategic issues coherently?
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