Indian Defence Review

Of course there is no question of any international protests against Saudi Arabia funding radical Wahabi terrorism globally, including ISIS, because of financial backing it gives to US politicians and latter’s investments in oil resources in Saudi Arabia.

Western behaviuor vis-à-vis Pakistan is actually explainable. It has nothing to do with strategic location of Pakistan as the case is made to be because India and Afghanistan are as strategically located if not more. Over the years, irregular or asymmetric forces have emerged with greater strategic value over conventional and even nuclear forces. Even economic giant like US felt the pinch in terms of lives and economic costs in the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. That is why the change in policy from ‘boots on ground’ to ‘boots on ground by proxy’. That is why condemnation of Pakistan (the mother of terrorism in the region) remains mere lip service as Pakistan’s ISI retains the strategic potential to assist the West in containment of Russia and China through her proxies, in tandem with her global terrorist links. Both Pakistan and the West know it and West will always forgive Pakistan all her trespasses as they did in the case of Osama bin Laden.

The word containment of course is for lack of a single word signifying degrading the adversary’s influence. The same is applicable to China in using Pakistani proxies notwithstanding the blowback in Xinjiang that has started taking shape. In case of the West, this equation may only change if major catastrophe (s) occurs in the West that is traced back to Pakistan. It is for this reason that Ashley Tellis, Carnegie Foundation had remarked, “India being continuously subjected to terror actually suits many …… India is a sponge that absorbs terrorism.” So, despite the glib talk about international cooperation in counter terrorism, at best India should expect only sharing of intelligence – that too when it suits national interests of the provider.

But what should be of serious concern to South Asia is the Great Game that has begun to contain the growing influence of China in the region, given that importance of the Indo-Pacific has started overtaking that of Asia-Pacific. West is obviously also worried about improvement in India-China relations, possibility of a political solution to the vexed border problem and as follow up to that, development of Russia-China-India economic, transportation and energy corridors linking right down to Indian ports. Then are warnings like by former Pakistani military officer Agha H Amin saying, “There is no doubt that Pakistan will be a semi autonomous Chinese province by 2030 or so… Pakistani Baluchistan by 2030 would be a completely Chinese run show.”

Containment of China in South Asia is shaping up on following lines: premature US-NATO withdrawal without letting Afghanistan stabilize politically would ensure instability with more turmoil in South and East Afghanistan; Zawahri’s renewed call supporting Mullah Omar plus ISIS inroads is setting stage for increased ethnic clashes and armed conflict with Northern Alliance in Afghanistan; an unchecked and imploding Pakistan will step up terrorism  In South Asia; the sinister shadow of ISIS and Al Qaeda (though both not united) supported by TTP, its factions and other terrorist organization, all coordinated and supported by Pakistan with financial support from Saudi Arabia and allies looms large over South Asia; latent radicalism in Bangladesh and Muslim-Buddhhist strife in Myanmar and Sri Lanka will likely be exploited using Al Qaeda and Pakistani proxies; ISIS inroads in South Asia and Xinjiang may be faster than envisaged, and; there are increased chances of CBRN terrorism even as Zawahri threatens India with car bombs.

The Taliban were created by the US to oust the Soviets from Afghanistan but that was not all. Simultaneously, the Al Qaeda in Afghanistan was created by the US-Saudi-ISI nexus also to against the Soviet Union, as admitted by Hillary Clinton. That is the reason Zawahri is renewing his support to Mullah Omar. The refocusing of Al Qaeda to South Asia is primarily to terrorize the region and create instability to contain China and possible Russia-China-India partnership.  The air attacks on ISIS are no more than a façade – air attacks against Al Qaeda and Taliban didn’t finish those organizations. Created by the US-Saudi alliance primarily to topple the Assad government in Syria, the ISIS will be used for effect in South Asia just like Al Qaeda.

Interestingly, the Times of India of 17th September 2014 talks of reports about ISIS terrorists injured in Iraq  being ferried by helicopters for treatment in Israel. In his recent article ‘NATO intends to prohibit Russia’s and China’s Development’ Thierry Meyssan writes, “The glitzy NATO summit in Newport has not publicly announced major decisions but it is likely that they were taken in secret; to prevent Russia and China – but also India – from continuing their development. NATO can count on Terrorism from the Islamic Emirate (read ISIS) which it pretends to condemn and fight”. As significantly, a leaked 2004 classified US document titled ‘Mapping the Global Future’ exposes the ‘Caliph Project 2020’ – presently being enacted through Baghdadi.

As part of justifying continued support to Pakistani military, Western Think Tanks and scholars harp on the need for India to reduce presence in Afghanistan for fear of Pakistani backlash. Western presence in Afghanistan for 13 years did ‘nothing’ to improve the economy of Afghanistan and similarly made ‘no’ effort whatsoever to resolve the Afghanistan-Pakistan border issue. Indian economic involvement in Afghanistan endangers the required instability, as part of the Great Game in South Asia. Recently, a US scholar talked of Pakistani proxies attacking Indian projects in Afghanistan but what is new. When US advised Pakistan decades back not to attack India conventionally not advise Pakistan now that continued instigations could lead India to respond in similar fashion – unconventionally.

The West also keeps ranting the bogey of nuclear exchange in the Subcontinent, which is outright stupid and fools no one, much that Pakistan would like to continue with the façade. In a recent international seminar in New Delhi, a US scholar spoke of visions of full scale wars and invasions in the South Asian region. He had to be reminded that the last war between two conventional armies was in 2005 between Russia and Georgia, what full scale US invasions have achieved in Iraq and Afghanistan is for all to see and one must be naïve to think India will invade Pakistan to finish off terrorism.

Besides when US and Russia haven’t had a nuclear exchange, why would the Subcontinent think of mutually assured destruction? Then is the issue of possible breakup of Pakistan and its consequences for India that Western scholars keep harping upon knowing full well that it is Western support to Pakistani military in generation of terrorism, instead of supporting the elected government that has brought Pakistan to this state. Yes, if the West orchestrates a refugee problem of strategic proportions, as it has done in Syria, India will need to cope with the situation.

Elated at having played the duplicity successfully against both US and China, Pakistan seems to forget that while she has the proxies to provide there are no permanent friends and enemies in the Great Game. Getting the PLA embedded in Gilgit-Baltistan is no insurance to peace, prosperity and territorial integrity no matter the chumminess with US and Saudi Arabia – remember US sacrificing its own ambassador – exploding mangoes. In the game of containing China, would Pakistan remain untouched? John Pilger in his article ‘In Ukraine, the US is Dragging Us Towards War with Russia’, dated 14 May 2014 published in ‘The News’ writes, “Every year the American historian William Blum publishes his ‘updated summary of the record of US foreign policy’ which shows that, since 1945, the US has tried to overthrow more than 50 governments, many of them democratically elected; grossly interfered in elections in 30 countries; bombed the civilian populations of 30 countries; used chemical and biological weapons; and attempted to assassinate foreign leaders”. He adds, “In many cases Britain has been a collaborator”.

It would be prudent for South Asia, China and Russia to focus on the Great Game South Asia, which has the potential to plunge the region into chaos and irregular conflict akin to the Middle East and Ukraine. Central Asia perhaps may be next in line. After all this mass of radical forces must be diverted somewhere. South Asia can be ravaged as long as West comes winner in the Great Game. Meanwhile Obama can continue with the sweet talk of wanting a strong India and cooperation on the high seas of Indo-Pacific. Now if all this is allegory, would President Obama put the cards on the table when he meets Prime Minister Modi?