Indian Defence Review

The recent Chinese intrusion in DBO was to put India inexorably on the back foot, in which it has succeeded despite it being done in gross violation of the 2005 India-China Agreement on Strategic and Cooperative Partnership for Peace and Prosperity that included maintaining peace and tranquility on the border. The obvious intent also is to push India into a boundary settlement in China’s favour, India having dithered woefully in even developing its border infrastructure with a petrified hierarchy that is alien to both future resources and strategic advantage.

Significantly, in 2005, a Deputy Political Commissar of PLAAF had said, “When a nation grows strong enough, it practices hegemony. The sole purpose of power is to pursue power …… Geography is destiny ….. When a country begins to rise, it shall first set itself in invincible position”. But the question here is that has China really reached that “invincible position” having nuclearised Pakistan and North Korea while antagonizing bulk of the world? This perceived invincibility must be viewed in the backdrop of China having too many fault lines that the world may just choose to exploit to desist China from practicing her “Tian Xia Concept” that views “all territories” under the skies (Heaven) as belonging to the Chinese. Chinese economy is linked to the world economy – holding more than a trillion dollars of US debt is just one example. Questions about China’s economic invincibility are already cropping up with growth having gone down to 7.6 percent (three year low) in the second half of 2012.

Analysts suspect economic growth this year will fall between 7.5% and 8.0%, but corruption and policy issues bring it down to 7.0%. Rapid economic growth has developed a whole series of bubbles whose future is unpredictable. The question being asked is whether the Chinese economy is on the brink of decline. China needs Indian markets.

It is time China realizes that she is hindering her own dreams of consolidating in the Indian Ocean Region by following a policy of confrontation with India no matter how sugar coated. How much this aggression can push India into the US Asia Pivot and with what consequences to China is a matter of conjecture but something that Chinese policy makers need to examine. Her supporting and meddling with insurgencies within India bares her actual intentions and it is time for India to do some plain talking with China including Pakistan’s terror factory and China’s tacit support to Pakistan’s anti-India jihad.

A boundary settlement proposal is reported to have been proffered by China during Salman Khurshid’s visit to Beijing, details of which have not been released to the media. This should have actually been done or debated in public or at least discussed in Parliament or in an All Party Meet. However, the federal structure of the country having evaporated and with talks of even clipping the wings of the judiciary, that is unlikely to happen.

Nevertheless, what India must realize is that China with her extended hegemonic claims wants to settle once for all the question of Tibet by settling the border with India. It sees itself at an advantageous position having developed infrastructure in border areas. But she actually fears enhanced Indian military capability with infrastructure development being attempted on the Indian side and knows our army has no problems in giving a bloody nose to an aggressor at any point along the LAC, fears of hierarchy including cyber and nuclear attacks notwithstanding. We must realize that it is not China but India that is in a position of strength though the psychologically weak may consider otherwise. The Tibet Card must remain open till China agrees to a ‘One India’ policy with J&K as Indian Territory. Shaksgam must be part of the discussion and our LAC claims must be projected strongly. If Tawang is being claimed by China on ‘religious pilgrimage’ grounds, then we should set forth our claim to the Mansarovar region including the approach to it. On no account should we agree to stop patrolling and developing infrastructure up to what we perceive as the LAC. Most likely, this is part of the proposal by China and the very reason why the government is shy of sharing it with the media or other political parties.

There is absolutely no doubt that Li Keqiang and his entourage will make noises ‘what Indians will like to hear’. It has happened earlier with Chinese visitors (copied by Pakistanis) but actions on ground have been exact opposite. The biggest disservice that the government can do to the nation is to agree to stop patrolling and developing infrastructure up to what we perceive as the LAC (freezing development and enlarging our military capability before the final boundary settlement should simply be out of the question), and signing an overall agreement with China underhand; implying without any political / public debate and then put the spin doctors to work to morph public opinion under garb of ambiguity. To quote Tavleen again from her book ‘Durbar’, she writes thus about government manipulating the media, “In insidious form of bribery, they are offered not just access to leaders and junkets when such leaders travel abroad, but nominated seats in Rajya Sabha. Subsidized housing and all sorts of other perks that are usually available only to politicians and high ranking government officials”. We saw this in action in recent months.

Li Keqiang’s visit is litmus test for the Indian resolve and the government must ensure it does not fail the billion plus Indians. It will be better for credibility to take the nation into confidence both before and after Le Keqiang’s visit. Any shady deals are unlikely to remain secret no matter what the veils of secrecy. Can the government for a change desist from media manipulation and more importantly, nation fixing?