Indian Defence Review

The fourth meeting of the Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) of Afghanistan, Pakistan, the US and China on the Afghan Peace and Reconciliation process held in Kabul on February 23, 2016 ended on an optimistic note endorsing strong support for the upcoming direct talks between the Government of Afghanistan and authorized representatives of the Taliban and other groups expected to take place in first week March 2016 in Islamabad.

Afghanistan and Pakistan are to constitute a bilateral joint working group (JWG) to work with Ulema of both countries for their support to the Afghan led and Afghan owned peace and reconciliation process, including through Fatwas against the ongoing senseless violence. It is well known that for many years the US had tried its best to bring Taliban into the reconciliation process, even leaking out the Afghan Peace Process Roadmap 2015 that was worked out in conjunction the Afghan High Peace Council (APHC in November 2012, the third step of which offered Taliban non-elected positions at various levels in government virtually giving the Taliban complete control of Pashtun dominated areas along Afghanistan-Pakistan border after 2014 elections. However, the Taliban refused to take even this bait.

In the backdrop of the QCG deliberations periodic terrorist attacks have been continuing in Afghanistan including one a recent one in close vicinity of the Defence Ministry in Kabul and another suicide bombing killing 12 and injuring over 40 in Kunar region of Afghanistan.

The Afghan-Pakistan JWG plan to work with Ulema of both countries for ending violence including through Fatwas is perhaps proposed by Pakistan. But this too needs to be viewed in the backdrop of Afghan clerics giving call for jihad against Pakistan for the first time when truck bombings in Kabul on August 7 killed 15 and wounded 400. Afghan clerics took  a pledge at the bombing site, saying, “Afghan people are Muslims and Jihad is eligible against Pakistan’s military intelligence – Inter Service Intelligence and Punjabi military; the country’s army and intelligence is directly involved in the ongoing violence and savagery in Afghanistan.” Afghanistan’s National Directorate of Security (NDS) had stated these attacks were carried out by elements of the Pakistani army with the help of their mercenaries – Haqqani terrorist network. So, wouldn’t the Pakistani zebra changing its stripes overnight be the greatest wonder of this decade? 

It may be recalled that the Afghanistan-Pakistan-Taliban talks broke down after the first round engineered by Pakistan. The dialogue ended with news of death of Mullah Omar surfacing two years after he had actually died in a Karachi hospital. US scholars maintained Mullah Omar was ineffective in his last years. So if Mullah Omar was ineffective in last few years of his life, how was the Taliban undertaking its spring offensives every year?

Besides, if he died in a Karachi hospital, it is impossible that Pakistan and CIA were not keeping tabs. So why wait two years to announce his death? Was this to obfuscate the fact that Pakistan had played the masterstroke (in conjunction US?) by installing Mullah Akhtar Mansour as the Afghan Taliban Chief, Mullah Mansour being the religious teachers of Haqqanis (read Al Qaeda) based in Pakistan for past 30 years as the protégé of ISI? Isn’t that the reason that while perception building was ongoing about Mansour’s leadership being challenged within Taliban and that he was possibly injured, Taliban surprised the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) swiftly capturing Kunduz, as a consequence of which even Russia had to increase its military presence in Tajikistan. Then there were reports quoting USSF sources about the hospital in Kunduz being used as a command post with a Pakistani ISI operative coordinating the operation, which led to the decision to bomb the hospital eventually.

It is interesting to note what James Clapper, Director of US National Intelligence presenting the ‘Worldwide Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Committee’ to the US Senate Armed Services Committee on February 9 had to say about Afghanistan, gist of which is: Afghan Government will continue to face persistent hurdles to political stability in 2016, confront larger and more divisive issues later in 2016 including the implementation of election reforms, long-delayed parliamentary elections, and a potential change by a Loya Jirga that might fundamentally alter Afghanistan’s constitutional order; government  will be unable to effectively address dire economic situation until it first contains the insurgency; fighting in 2016 will be more intense than 2015; Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) will probably maintain control of most major population centers but will very likely cede control of some rural areas; without international funding ANSF will probably not remain a cohesive or viable force; Taliban has largely coalesced under Mullah Akhtar Mansur, more so because of the two-week seizure of  Kunduz last year;  Taliban will continue to test the overstretched ANSF faced with problematic logistics, low morale, and weak leadership; and Khorasan branch of ISIL comprising rebel Afghan Taliban and TTP despite quick growth in January 2015 will remain low-level threat during 2016. 

It is even more interesting to note that the only reference James Clapper made about Pakistan in his above presentation in his 32 page statement was mere four lines, that too hyphenating her with India that reads, “Relations between Pakistan and India remain tense following a terrorist attack on Pathankot Air Force base in India, which New Delhi blames on a Pakistani-based group, and further dialogue hinges on Pakistan’s willingness to take action against those in Pakistan linked to the attack.”

That India would have shared with the US strong evidence of JeM’s terror activities and role in the Pathankot attack is obvious. But then there is hardly any US or Western pressure on Pakistan to even bring the perpetrators of the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks in 2008 including Hafiz Saeed to book despite David Headley’s recent deposition, Shuja Pasha admitting to ISI’s role in the 26/11 terror attacks in the book ‘Playing to the Edge’, and Musharraf’s admission that ISI was training militant groups.

Michael Hayden, former CIA Director in his book ‘Playing to the Edge’ has expressed deep frustration of the “duplicity” of the Pakistani leadership when it came to taking action against terrorist groups. But this is hardly news, and this Pakistan continues to date. In November 2014,   Sartaj Aziz, Nawaz Sharif’s Foreign Affairs Advisor and also then NSA of Pakistan had publicly stated that militants not dangerous to Pakistan should not targeted.  

US scholars have been talking of cooperation between the Afghan Taliban and the TTP past several years. With Mullah Mansour Akhtar controlling Afghan Taliban and perhaps part TTP little wonder about reports emerging of Al Qaeda training camps resurfacing in Afghanistan. Isn’t that why Michael Hayden expresses frustration about Pakistan not taking action against terrorist groups, particularly against al-Qaida, Taliban, LeT and the Haqqani network?

James Clapper considers low-level ISIL threat during 2016 in Afghanistan but how did ISIS consolidate in seven districts of Nangarhar Province of Afghanistan, west of Peshawar, what is their leadership structure and what is Pakistan’s role in cobbling the so called rebels of Afghan Taliban and TTP?

According to a 10-member faction of ISIS that laid down their arms recently, Pakistan’s military provides weapons and training to ISIS militants in Afghanistan and instructs them to kill the “infidel” Afghan forces. One of the fighter Arabistan, Zaitoon, said, “I was tasked to fight in Nazian district (in Nangarhar). We used to present our daily report to Punjabis and Pakistanis and they encouraged us to fight the Afghan government.”  That Pakistan has been arming terrorist groups in Afghanistan is without doubt. 

Time and again Afghan intelligence has talked of Pakistani army regulars engaging in terror attacks in Afghanistan in conjunction other terrorist groups but the US has never talked about it. Condemnation of Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism is only lip service as Pakistan’s ISI retains the strategic potential to assist the west in containment of Russia and China through her proxies, in tandem with her global terrorist organizations.

China would like stability in Afghanistan but is unlikely to pressure Pakistan to stop exporting terror for two reasons: strategic interests including the CPEC and Gwadar; and, having established links with Taliban even before the US invasion of Afghanistan her economic ventures in Afghanistan are not threatened.

Pakistan is unlikely to change her policy of exporting terror and the US may continue to look away till it suits her national interests. Though Afghanistan has invited India to join a new regional consultative mechanism to address the critical challenges facing Afghanistan; the 6+1 group comprising India, Pakistan, Iran, Russia, the US and China in addition to Afghanistan but its agenda would be more generic than the focused agenda of the QCG. 

Afghanistan’s High Peace Council, which has Taliban representation, can play a crucial role in bringing about peace and stability. But most Taliban factions want the US-NATO out before taking the process further. So, while US presence has helped check the Taliban, US is also part of the problem. Mullah Akhtar Mansour himself had stated in the past, “We will continue our jihad until the creation of an Islamic system. The enemy with their talk of peace is trying by this propaganda to weaken the jihad”. Which way and to what extent the QCG succeeds is anybody’s guess?

Pakistan’s continuing military operations in North Waziristan are pushing more refugees into Afghanistan that also assists enlarging her own strategic space.  While Afghanistan will probably face another spring offensive by Taliban in coming months, Pakistan can be expected to continue nurturing terrorist groups, including the ISIS, AQIS and Taliban. Ashraf Ghani’s words while demitting office as President of Afghanistan that “peace will come to Afghanistan only when the US and Pakistan want it” were probably prophetic. James Clapper’s briefing certainly doesn’t spell anything bright for Afghanistan.