Indian Defence Review

According to America’s Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), “The United States has a vital interest in preserving the many political, economic, and security gains that have been achieved in Afghanistan since 2001. A resurgence of the Taliban insurgency could once again turn Afghanistan into a terrorist safe haven. Moreover, internal instability in Afghanistan could have larger regional ramifications as Pakistan, India, Iran, and Russia all compete for influence in Kabul and with sub-national actors.”

Wonder if CFR has noticed that the Joe Biden Administration sees little threat to America from the resurgence of Taliban. In fact, they don’t see Afghanistan falling to Taliban at all. Moreover, CFR appears very biased for some strange reasons. First, it misses out completely on resurgence of the Islamic State in Afghanistan as well as presence of Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Al Qaeda’s headquarters in neighbouring Iran. Second, in describing countries competing for influence in Kabul, there is no mention of China despite it sharing a border with Afghanistan, China’s demonstrated actions and strategic ambitions. Is it because Richard N Haass, President CFR since July 2003, has a soft spot for China or is China funding CFR?

Third, India is mentioned competing for influence in Kabul with sub-national actors. Can CFR name which sub-national actors India is using in Afghanistan? Being an American entity, CFR obviously cannot mention CIA pumping ISIS cadres into Afghanistan from Iraq-Syria but what about Chinese support to Taliban and Pakistan-based terrorist outfits operating in Afghanistan?   

Violence in Afghanistan is reaching new heights with Taliban’s spring offensive unleashed on May 1 in Helmand Province. Provincial officials in Afghanistan’s southern Kandahar Province reported on May 6 that Taliban fighters had captured the strategic Dahla Dam following fierce fighting forcing hundreds of families to flee. On social media, the Taliban also celebrated the capture of a key district in Baghlan Province in northern Afghanistan. Subsequent reports on May 13 reveal that Taliban has overrun the Police HQ in Nikhil District astride the main highway 25 km southwest of Kabul. 

The road from Sher Khan in Kunduz brings supplies arriving from Central Asia. The Taliban has established 10 permanent check posts on this road. It may be recalled that Taliban had invested Kunduz on two previous occasions which had resulted in increased Russian military presence in Tajikistan with which Russia has a military pact.

It appears that in addition to Kunduz, the Taliban is preparing to invest and attack Kabul after surrounding it and getting control of the water and electricity supply to these cities. The Taliban offensive is demonstratively expanding but the US is holding out hope that the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) will be able to withstand the Taliban offensive despite provincial officials warning of mounting losses with heavy casualties.

On May 8, multiple blasts outside a girl’s school in Kabul killed 68 including 48 girl students and injured some 150 including 51 Hazaras. This not only shows the hatred  towards Hazaras but also women, indicating what the women will face after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan and imposition of rule of Sharia – covered head to toe, not permitted to venture out alone and walk three steps behind the husband or escort, as during the erstwhile Taliban rule. 

And, Taliban don’t hate Hazaras alone. According to Agha H Amin, former Pakistani army officer, Pakistan-sponsored Taliban regard all Shias, Ismals, non-Pashtuns, moderate Pashtuns infidels who deserve to be massacred. Another view is that Pakistan doesn’t care if poor innocent Sunnis die, Iran doesn’t care if poor innocent Shias die and that Afghanistan will never see peace as long as these two countries remain its neighbors in their current forms.

On May 11, Pakistan army chief General QJ Bajwa accompanied by ISI chief Lieutenant General Faiz Hamid, visited Afghanistan, held talks with President Ashraf Ghani and met other Afghan leaders in Kabul. Britain’s Chief of the Defence Staff General Nicholas Patrick Carter was also present during Bajwa’s discussions with the Afghan President which is somewhat intriguing though UK has also contributed to the NATO contingent in Afghanistan. Earlier, Carter had called on Bajwa in Rawalpindi.

According to news reports, matters of mutual interest, current developments in Afghan peace process, enhanced bilateral security and defence cooperation and need for effective border management between the two countries were discussed during Bajwa’s visit to Kabul, Bajwa reiterated that Pakistan would continue to support the “Afghan-led and Afghan-owned” peace process based on mutual consensus of all stakeholders. Such a statement with Pakistan supporting the Taliban past two decades plus and knowing that the peace talks are hogwash is laughable. Bajwa being Beijing’s protégé is adept at speaking with forked tongue.

From day one Pakistan has wanted a Taliban regime in Kabul though the degree of Pakistan-Taliban camaraderie after Taliban takes over Afghanistan is debatable. One view is that Bajwa, nicknamed ‘Goat’ (Godfather Of All Terrorists – in Pakistan) in some circles visited Kabul with his ISI chief to carry out a first-hand appraisal of resolve of the Afghan Government to fight the Taliban and what spoils can  come to Pakistan’s way after US troops exit. It is pertinent to note that when US troops began thinning out last years, reports emerged that military equipment being left behind was given to Pakistan and moved across the border to Pakistan rather than giving it to the ANSF. Any surprise why Taliban is operating American Humvees?  

Germany’s Der Spiegel recently interviewed President Ashraf Ghani, asking why should Pakistan change its strategy now of all times when it is so close to the finish line, and when the country would soon be able to determine the course of Kabul via Pakistan? Ghani responded by saying, “My visitor from Pakistan yesterday, Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa, clearly assured me that the restoration of the Emirate or the dictatorship by the Taliban is not in anybody’s interest in the region, especially Pakistan. However, he said, some of the lower levels in the army still hold the opposite view in certain cases. It is primarily a question of political will.”

Ghani’s above statement places too much faith on the ‘Goat’ reliance on who amounts to suicide. But Ghani perhaps had no other choice than this diplomatic response. He did, however, say that lower ranks in the Pakistan army favour the Emirate or dictatorship of Taliban. Obviously he could not openly mention that the radicalized lower ranks in Pakistani army are patronized by the senior military hierarchy and that Pakistani regulars in Afghanistan have been covertly fighting alongside the Taliban and Haqqanis.  

The Taliban have their eyes set on Kabul. How long the ANSF can ward them off without American air and artillery support and drone surveillance only time will show. Amin’s reading that Taliban considers non-Pashtuns, moderate Pashtuns infidels who deserve to be massacred is also ominous. President Ashraf Ghani’s future, therefore, remains uncertain.