Indian Defence Review

The Pakistan Taliban claim that they have developed and successfully test-fired a missile christened ‘Omar-1’. According to the TTP spokesperson in the video showing the assembly and launch of the missile, the Omar-1 can be easily assembled and dissembled in accordance to the situation, and that the engineering unit of the TTP has the capability to develop modern lethal weapons.

He also said that TTP fighters were optimizing use of technology including suicide vests, suicide vehicles, hand grenades, anti-jammer devices and the like. Though the range and efficacy of the missile are still question marks, the interesting part is the timing of the launch not only in synch with the grand announcement of the US$ 46 billion Chinese investment in Pakistan and the massive China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, but also in aftermath of the news of TTP Chief Mullah Fazlullah having been purportedly killed in an airstrike and perceptions being built that his counterpart in Afghan Taliban, Mullah Omar was becoming irrelevant.

The question, however, is how did this missile,  Omar-1, come about? Is this really the effort of TTP itself or has the technology been passed over to the TTP.

The prime suspect is Pakistan’s ISI whose nefarious activities are being conveniently shrouded under cover of “some rouge elements in the military”. How come with the proficiency acquired in covert operations over the years and close cooperation with the CIA and China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) -国家 安全部, it has not been possible to identify these “some rogue elements” in the military? In the seemingly never ending Operation Zarb-e-Azb, Pakistani military offensive into North Waziristan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa over past several months, Pakistan claims to have killed over 2,000 terrorists but name of any TTP leader of any significance has yet to come to the fore. Even to the news of killing of Mullah Fazlullah, Pakistan’s official response was that there is no such confirmation.

Ground reports in vernacular Pakistani media at the time of launch of Zarb-e-Azb were categorical that the radical leaders had been forewarned so they could move out to safe sanctuaries before the aerial and artillery bombardment would commence. So, this claim of having killed over 2000 militants includes how many civilians, women and children can be debated. Yes, the gain to Pakistan has been the displacement of over 1.5 million people, some 25,000 of which had been estimated to having been crossed over into Afghanistan some five months. This would have facilitated the “some rogue elements” of the Pakistani induct elements into Afghanistan including part of the 20 Mujahid battalions that were being trained to operate as Taliban.

But why Pakistan’s so called rouge elements would pass on missile technology to the TTP. If this indeed is the case, then there could be several reasons. To start with, they would not be averse to Talibanization of Pakistan. When the military is actively supporting radicals like Seed and Lakhvi, had been sheltering Osama-bin-Laden for several years, many political parties thrive on radical support, and section of the administration is hand-in-glove with radicals, where is the problem of instituting the rule of Sharia? Proxies armed with missiles would increase the strategic advantage need for cajoling Pakistan – which in any case both America and Pakistan are already doing. The world can also keep guessing what will be Pakistan’s next step with galloping tactical nuclear weapons production.

A nuclear tipped missile with a radical organization opens up a range of strategic possibilities and could this be part of gratitude on behest of the dragon? More pressure on Afghanistan would be natural, President Ashraf Ghani’s utopia of détente with Pakistan notwithstanding. The communist dragon will also get the signal and remain committed to flow of billions of dollars. As for America, condemnation of Pakistan for generating terrorism is only lip service as Pakistan’s ISI will always retain the strategic potential to assist the west in containment of Russia and China through her proxies, in tandem with her global terrorist links. Both Pakistan and the west know it and west will always forgive Pakistan all her trespasses as they did in the case of Osama bin Laden.

The name ‘Omar 1’ itself is intriguing. Why not Fazlullah 1 or another name? Is Omar 1 named after Mullah Omar that signifies the TTP and Afghan Taliban nexus? Not without reason Daniel S Markey, Senior Fellow for India, Pakistan & South Asia, Council on Foreign Relations stated in June 2014, “If we say that the Pakistani government supports Taliban, and we say Pakistani government is target of Taliban, we are telling the truth in both instances….. you could even say that Afghan Taliban is playing a double game on the Pakistani state…. they more or less get safe haven inside the tribal areas along the Afghan border …… on the other hand, Afghan Taliban help Pakistani Taliban; provide inspiration, provide training, access to financing, and sometimes even fighters.”

So, if we have this missile capability common to the two Talibans, its implications with part of the Af-Pak region going under Taliban rule too needs to be considered. The possibility exists since both Taliban will not lay down arms, want all foreign troops out of the region, don’t believe in democracy, are for an Islamic caliphate / emirate, want rule of Sharia, don’t respect Constitution, and both are very much linked no matter Pakistan’s and western portrayal that they are daggers drawn. Possibility also exists of this technology having been passed on to the TTP by the ISIS. Both have been in touch in Syria and Iraq and part of the TTP, if not all, have aligned themselves with the ISIS. The latter in making slow but sure inroads into the Af-Pak region and sharing such technology would cement the bondage quickly. Such sinister possibility of greater terrorist collaboration in Af-Pak region will be even dangerous.

And, what about China, with her strategy of ‘Unrestricted Warfare’, which includes atomic warfare, bio-chemical warfare and terrorist warfare? China has had links with both Talibans since past several years. China flouted the missile regime years back by selling Silkworm missiles to Saudi Arabia and gave nuclear technology to Pakistan, even conducting Pakistan’s nuclear test on her own soil. Thomas C Reed and Danny B Stillman (former Secretary USAF) have disclosed in their book ‘Nuclear Express’ that during regime of Deng Xiaoping the Chinese policy makers had thought that use of nuclear weapons against West by radical and rogue countries would be good for China as long as such strikes could not be not traced back to China.

Hence China went in for covert nuclearization of Pakistan and North Korea. Reed and Stillman have based their findings on discussions and interviews of Chinese nuclear scientists who in moments of boisterousness made such revelations, because of which China has not contested the book.

British sources contend Chinese specialists have been seen training Taliban fighters in the use of infrared-guided surface-to-air missiles. This was supported by a May 13, 2008, classified US document released by WikiLeaks. China had reportedly supplied QW-1 man pads to the Taliban. Aviation Week of 23 December 2010 reported Chinese military advisors were advising Pakistani Taliban how to fight the NATO led ISAF. Chinese weapons have been used against US-NATO forces in Afghanistan but China contended no international norms were broken. Taliban delegations may have visited China in recent months but with such close relationship, why would China refrain from passing on such technology to the TTP if Xinjiang is safe, the China-Pak economic corridor is smooth going and the Taliban proxies further Chinese national interests in Af-Pak and Central Asia including booting out the Americans altogether?

But then Uncle Sam is no novice in this sub-conventional game. In fact it can still teach a lesson or two to China even as the latter is ready to dole out billions to but her way through. There are enough mercenary organizations in the west to do the bidding of the CIA. Witness what is happening in Middle East, Ukraine and even Africa. The Sarin attacks in Syria are just one indication. Could this missile be part of the plan to plunge the region into further chaos on purpose? Arguably the source of the technology for TTP’s Omar 1 missile can have multiple permutations and combinations but as for India, we need to take serious note of the development with positive indicators that Pakistan is intent on upping the proxy war. Proliferation of missile technology to other ISI-linked terrorist groups is well on the cards. The terror threat is rising.