Indian Defence Review

Much has been said and written about the February 25, 2021 statement by Director Generals of Military Operations (DGMOs) of India and Pakistan  reiterating their commitment to ceasefire along the Line of Control (LoC) in J&K. News reports indicate that both countries have been holding back-channel talks for the last three months between NSA Ajit Doval and Moeed Yusuf, Special Assistant to Prime Minister Imran Khan. Notably, while these back channel talks were on over past three months, Pakistan indulged in over 5,000 unprovoked ceasefire violations in J&K during 2020 (highest in recent years) and 600 during 2021; Pakistan had violated the ceasefire 971 times in 2017, 2,936 times in 2018 and 3,289 times in 2019.

Indian retaliation to the above was naturally severe causing heavy damage to the Pakistani side as well. To protect residents of border villages in J&K from Pakistani shelling, the Indian Government had to sanction Rs 415 crore for constructing over 14,400 underground bunkers along the LOC and the International Border (IB), of which some 7,777 bunkers have already been constructed in Rajouri, Poonch, Jammu, Samba and Kathua districts. It was therefore logical for the DGMOs of India and Pakistan to dialogue for reducing this dangerously escalating trend that was causing increased loss of lives on both sides.

On February 27, Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan tweeted: “I welcome restoration of the ceasefire along the LOC. The onus of creating an enabling environment for further progress rests with India. India must take necessary steps to meet the long-standing demand & right of the Kashmiri people to self-determination according to UNSC resolutions. We have always stood for peace & remain ready to move forward to resolve all outstanding issues through dialogue.”

This is not the first time Imran has expressed keenness to for talks with India. In response to Imran’s recent tweets, the spokesman from the Ministry of External Affairs stated, “India desires normal, neighbourly relations with Pakistan. We have always maintained that we are committed to addressing issues, if any, in a peaceful bilateral manner. On key issues, our position remains unchanged. I don’t need to reiterate it.”

India has emphasized many times in the past that terror and talks cannot go together. Though Pakistani ceasefire violations are primarily to provide cover for infiltration operations, adhering to a ceasefire agreement does not cover Pakistan’s terror generation and proxy war on India which remains unchanged notwithstanding Islamabad’s whitewash for the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). Intelligence reports indicate that terror launch pads across the LOC are full while Turkish mercenaries have also been undertaking reconnaissance of border areas. No weapons have been inducted by Pakistan using drones in the short period from the ceasefire announcement but drones have been sighted flying across the border.

At the moment the announcement of ceasefire is just that but speculations is running wild about why the ceasefire agreement announcement now, who is behind it and also some loud thinking that India-Pakistan relations are heading towards normalization. One view is that the FATF and SAARC are the motivation behind Pakistan wanting ceasefire. Pakistan certainly wants to get off the FATF’s grey list but it need not worry about getting blacklisted. Avoiding blacklisting requires support of just three member states, which are readily available in China, Turkey and Malaysia. Even if support of another two member states were needed, China would simply buy the other two.  As for SAARC, Pakistan may like to trade with India but it would prefer to a SAARC minus India under Beijing’s tutelage.  

Another reason being floated is that with disengagement from the India-China standoff in Ladakh, India would have more troops and more focus on the Indo-Pak border that forced Pakistan to ask for ceasefire. Nothing can be more absurd. The disengagement in Ladakh is far from over and the China threat remains no matter the utopians trumpeting the contrary. Besides, Pakistan’s cheaper option of proxy war is hardly related to quantum of troops manning borders given the difficult terrain and an occasional proactive action taken by India other than responding to unprovoked trans-border firing.

Some opine that America has prompted Pakistan to seek ceasefire with India. But sitting in China’s lap, Pakistan is least bothered about Washington with Capitol Hill under successive US governments holding the naïve view that Pakistan is the key to stabilize Afghanistan whereas Islamabad has always been the problem. Imran Khan dances to the army’s tune and so would Moeed Yusuf, his special assistant. It is Qamar Javed Bajwa, the army chief who dictates the foreign and defence policies of Pakistan, in addition to coordinating all terror activities through the ISI. At the same time, if QJ Bajwa must listen to someone, it is Beijing.

Addressing the graduation ceremony at Pakistan’s Air Force Academy in Risalpur on February 2, 2021, Bajwa said, “We stand firmly committed to the ideal of mutual respect and peaceful co-existence. It is time to extend a hand of peace in all directions. However, we will not allow anybody or any entity to misinterpret our desire for peace as a sign of weakness.” If anyone would have prompted Bajwa including for offering the olive branch to India including the ceasefire agreement, it would be Beijing. However, if China indeed did prompt Bajwa or Pakistan to do so, the apparent motive would be to lull India into complacency given the fact that the traits of both China and Pakistan match up as perfect backstabbers. 

Pakistan is talking of discussing ‘all issues’ but it would want Kashmir discussed on priority whereas the only issue related to Kashmir is vacation of Pakistan occupied Kashmir (POK). Moreover, the Pakistani army has mortgaged the territories of Pakistan to China and latter will continue to tighten its vice-like grip on Pakistan. Nearly 100 Kashmiri youth who travelled to Pakistan with valid visas for short duration in last three years have either not returned or have disappeared after returning.  Though mainstream media has not mentioned this fact, it indicates that Pakistan will continue its efforts to destabilize India. Pakistan will continue its attempts to infiltrate terrorists and mercenaries into India while maximizing homegrown terrorism.  

Finally, the ceasefire agreement should be viewed only as a ceasefire agreement and nothing more. Whether this is a tactical pause by Pakistan only time will show as the so-called ceasefire agreement of 2003 has been violated by Pakistan thousands of times. The Pakistan army’s pathological hatred towards India will unlikely change and so will the army’s basis of hold over Pakistan in waging proxy conflict against India and Afghanistan with China backing it. The snake can shed its skin but it remains a snake. This situation will not change until we have the power to fight a two-front war both at the conventional and sub-conventional levels. The yes men who keep harping that there will be no conflict simply don’t understand what deterrence involves; diplomacy coupled with soft power,  media manipulation and rhetoric does not constitute deterrence.