The IB has red flagged the possibility of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) launching seaborne attack (s) in India. Reports are of large number of its cadres being trained in deep sea diving, simultaneous to Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) training some 600 cadres and tying up with LeT. Gujarat and Maharashtra are reportedly threatened and that these terrorists are being handled by the Special Service Group (SSG) of Pakistani army. The links of LeT and Al-Shabaab of Somalia under aegis of Pakistan’s ISI for seaborne training is also mentioned. But it is equally important to acknowledge intimate links between ISI and Al Qaeda, and LeT and AQIS (Al Qaeda offshoot) which is bent upon attacking India. It may be recalled that in the heydays of the LTTE, Al Qaeda had sent its contingent for being trained in sabotage at sea under the ‘Sea Tigers’ of LTTE.
The 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks came by sea, which was divert from the operation first planned at New York including UN HQ but was aborted because of leakage of plans. Our intelligence agencies claim advance warning of the 26/11 terror attack was given to security agencies which were ignored. Similar was the claim of a letter sent by intelligence agencies on buildup for Kargil intrusions that was ignored. The NSCS, which is only an advisory body, had marked Parliament as the topmost terrorist target in Delhi two years before the actual attack came and found us unprepared. These are serious lacunae in levels of warning and the response mechanism that we need to sort out.
The 10 terrorists of LeT including Ajmal Kasb who carried out the 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks did come from the sea. 10 days after these attacks, MJ Akbar, MoS (EAM) presently in eye of the ‘Me Too’ storm, wrote why was there surprise how the dhow carrying these terrorists came all the way from Karachi to Mumbai. He wrote that such vessels come every fortnight carrying narcotics supplies for the 5-star hotels, Bollywood and the high and mighty of Mumbai and that the politicians and police are complicit in these operations. It is not that Mumabaikars have given up on narcotics; as per a January 2018 report by Seedo, an Israel-based firm, Mumbai is the sixth most stoned city in the world, Delhi ranking 3rd after New York and Karachi. But the question is whether the supply of narcotics to Mumbai continues by sea or have alternatives been found, given that terrorism and narcotics are Siamese twins?
Intelligence agencies had reported Al Qaeda footprints in Kerala in early 2000s as prelude to raising the militant wing of Popular Front of India (PFI). An ISI colonel posted as deputy high commissioner at Colombo had organized Tamil Muslims into the ‘Osama Brigade’ in Northern Sri Lanka, some whom had been reconnoitering the coast of South India. The NIA has recently reported that the Pakistani High Commission in Bangladesh is orchestrating terror activities in West Bengal. Hence, even as terrorist attacks from sea are appreciated more in Gujarat and Maharashtra, these could happen elsewhere as well. The fact that a foreign vessel carrying arms was apprehended along the eastern coast of India, is indicative of this. We also have considerable Rohingya movement into South India not only by rail, but also by sea.
Pakistan is simmering under its economic woes but its military remains defiant with terrorists support unabated. Under Imran Khan, the JeM, which was somewhat lying low after its involvement in the Pathankot IAF base and Uri terrorist attcks, is getting resurrected in major way with its gigantic terrorist training facility coming up close to Bahawalpur. Asim Munir, the newly appointed DG ISI, would like to make his mark early by attacking India. Having headed military intelligence in his previous avatar, he already is well versed with terrorist activities. The training for terrorists involved in 26/11 Mumbai terrorist attacks was refined by Pakistani marines.
The LeT-JeM-AQIS seaborne attack capability maybe at nascent stage presently but given the focus that the Pakistani military could give it, the scope could increase exponentially, suicide bomber vessels, frogmen, undersea vehicles, robots etc. It may be recalled that in their 25-year lifespan (1984-2009) Sea Tigers of LTTE, not only sank 29 Sril Lanka Navy fast patrol boats, attacked Sri Lankan naval base at Trincomalee and damaged a catamaran for troop transport, but also became strategic nuisance for foreign vessels. China’s tacit support to Pakistan’s terror activities, which has been all along, will naturally extend to the sea, gave its own designs for the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). There is also ample evidence of Saudi Arabia funding Al Qaeda, which by extension benefits AQIS, ISI and LeT.
A major threat from seaborne terrorists can be from placement of mines. The danger is more because naval 2005 acquisition plans to acquire 24 mine counter-measure vessels (MCMVs) remain bogged down in red-tape, leaving the Navy with six-30 year old minesweepers that are to be decommissioned in end 2018. Given the looming criticality, their life will probably extended but given the vintage, their actual operational capability may remain questionable. MCMVs are around 900-ton specialized warships that detect, track and destroy underwater mines laid by enemy to choke harbours and offshore installations, disrupt shipping and maritime trade.
Seaborne attacks could be against vessels akin to Al Qaeda attack on USS Cole, Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) attack in Pakistan on PNS Mehran and Jinnah International Airport in Karachi. Our offshore assets would be more vulnerable, which would include the 30 odd processing platforms and 125 well platforms. Private boats and dhows transiting between the gulf-Pakistan and India are known to be travelling close to these structures, many of which are not even manned. Lucrative targets could also be soft targets like the ‘Shiv Smarak’ or the Chhatrapati Sivaji Memorial coming up off the sea coast in Maharashtra and the ‘Statue of Unity’ dedicated to Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel on Sadhu Bet near Vadodara in Gujarat being inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on October 31. With the statements emanating from Pakistan with reference to upcoming elections in India, Pakistan would certainly love to create chaos through terrorist acts in India.
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