An equidistant map of the world centered on Delhi. Showing true bearings and distance from Delhi. Scale 1 : 45 5 00 000, Projection: Lambert Azimuthal Equidistant (Oblique Aspect), Origin: Delhi, Latitude 28°35’N, Longitude 77°13’E. Read off the value on the graduated circle to get the true bearing to the nearest degree, of well known places radially from Delhi. Examples: True bearings from Delhi to San Francisco, Tokyo, Cape Town and Moscow are 015°, 065°, 226°, and 325°, respectively. Excerpted from: Transition to Guardianship: The Indian Navy 1991-2000
In the unfolding geopolitical scenario, two major forces are driving the world today: modernisation and globalisation on one hand and terrorism on the other. The attacks on America on September 11 are significant on two counts. First, the fact that terrorists are using modern means to hit their adversaries globally. Second, it is the beginning of the first major war in the age of globalisation. There is an inherent contradiction in this war.
Modernisation and globalisation processes automatically embrace all aspects of life. Be they political, economic, cultural or civilisational. The terrorists primarily wage this war to prevent such evolution in values. Yet to conduct their campaigns successfully, they perforce remain wedded to every tool that the means of modernisation and globalisation offer. To underestimate the relationship between globalisation and mass scale terrorism is a grave folly as the latter wants to subvert the former by using the tools offered by it.
Beijing has shrewdly interwoven support of fundamentalist Islamic and rogue regimes with acute anti-American sentiments within its ambitions
Therefore, global terrorism is the watershed that requires coordinated global response. Unfortunately, Washington continues to pursue a wrongly prioritised agenda, neglecting security concerns of others. Due to this indifference, the sheen has worn off, making it a nowhere war.
It is not too difficult to imagine how this war by America will impact. First, American writ in Central Asia stands diluted as it continues to fund and support Pakistan. This blunder ensures that Afghanistan faces renewed turmoil, and India, enhanced cross-border terrorism. Meanwhile, the Taliban regroups. Fundamentalists take over Balochistan and NWFP. In these areas the Taliban writ runs larger than life. Girls are banned from educational institutions, music is taboo once again.
Pakistan Army, ISI and the Mosque feed these fundamentalist forces on the sly while paying lip service to Washington. Nuclear and missile technology is regularly bartered between North Korea and Pakistan at the behest of a devious China, while American administration demonstrates its helplessness by issuing toothless statements. MMA persists in the export of fundamentalist ideology. The irony is that anti-American sentiments snowball in Pakistan at the cost of and with the help of American funds. In fact it is business as usual for the Jihad factory while Uncle Sam lives in a dream world of his own creation with a pat a day for Islamabad’s support!
Second, unlike India, the Chinese leadership has always demonstrated clarity of purpose and the political will to ensure its supremacy in Asia. Dominance in Asia is the springboard that will launch it as the next superpower by the end of 2020. Its lack of ambiguity takes in to account that at some stage there will be a military clash with the United States. The sole purpose of the Bush Administration’s announcement of China being a strategic competitor is to contain and finally whittle down the growing challenge to the American leadership.
If Asia is where the geoeconomic action is, then diminishing American presence will necessitate occupying the vacated strategic high ground by a democratic secular power to maintain the overall balance.
If there is one country that can upset the applecart of the Western hegemony led by America in the near future, it is China. Beijing has shrewdly interwoven support of fundamentalist Islamic and rogue regimes with acute anti-American sentiments within its ambitions. At the same time, the recent announcement at a delicate stage of negotiations by North Korea that it possesses nuclear weapons was at the behest of its patron, China. This innocent revelation set alarm bells ringing in the West. Who should they blame – their frontline ally Pakistan, or the strategic competitor China, or its subordinate state North Korea?
Third, the American strategy to consolidate its supreme position hinges on systematically breaking all Islamic military powers one after another, while simultaneously counter-balancing China. The Western media and ’scholars’ have started churning out anti-Iran literature, even as Pentagon positions the military to bomb the daylights out of Iraq on one pretext or the other. With the advent of Islamic terrorism as a global tool by non-state actors, international order led by America stands challenged. It is under stress. Prior to Nine-Eleven, it was the devious spread of Chinese influence that threatened the world pecking order. Today, Western supremacy faces stiff opposition from both. Albeit in theory, American military and economic power looks unassailable, in practice Islamic fundamentalists cannot be fought with superior air power alone, because the network employs techniques of creeping invasion. They have again crept back to general area Afghanistan-Pakistan silently, unnoticed like cancer.
Fourth, despite the unprecedented status enjoyed by the United States in terms of economic, technological and military superiority, its response so far to the growing threat of terrorism appears to be inadequate. This is primarily due to its false belief that its overwhelming preponderance in world affairs is adequate to take on Islamic Fundamentalism unilaterally. Let’s look at Nine- Eleven once again. The mightiest world power was attacked on its soil, considered the safest sanctuary on the whole planet. The attack was launched from US territory. The weapon systems were civilian aeroplanes. The targets were thousands of innocent civilians in buildings. No complex technologies or weapon platforms were employed. No state claimed responsibility. That is the nature of the threat posed by terrorism worldwide.
Terrorist attacks are sudden, unexpected and difficult to predict. Hence, for America to retain its position of preeminence, it is essential to contain terrorism by assaulting it globally. As terrorism threatens the present international order, American stakes are extremely high and its options limited. Unlike conventional conflict, war on terrorism requires a qualitatively different approach. To contain and finally eradicate terrorism, the United States needs to shift from unilateralist decision-making temptations to multilateral consensus, since the scale and the nature of threat is both unique and global. Without trustworthy allies, this war cannot be conducted successfully to its logical conclusion.
…it is fashionable to use the phrase national interest in every fifth sentence, though New Delhi is yet to identify what constitutes our national interests.
Fifth, America by itself cannot maintain its global postures. A diplomat shot in Jordan. Soldiers dead in Kuwait even as an undercurrent of Islamic fundamentalist fervour is gaining ground there unannounced. Kenya bomb blast again. Bali took its toll. In Afghanistan rocket attacks are routine. Therefore, how does a white American salesman travel to West Asia to market his products? Frankly he does not anymore, but sends his Asian colleague instead. An American Ambassador quit her job in Islamabad, as her daughters were not safe. Similarly, white tourists cannot safely travel in most of Islamic Asia. When Americans cannot travel for routine business and trips since threat to life looms large, how can Washington maintain its global positions effectively in Asia? The post Iraq/Gulf War II scenario shall further heighten these fears. Withdrawal symptoms as in sending Asian colleagues to conduct business in West Asia will multiply in times to come.
If Asia is where the geoeconomic action is, then diminishing American presence will necessitate occupying the vacated strategic high ground by a democratic secular power to maintain the overall balance. This assumes significance, as Asia is the next geoeconomic hub of the world on two counts. First, Asia will be the principal consumer of energy by 2020. Second, by the same period it will boast of the largest population of young and working-age-group people in the world. Both factors are sure signs of the tremendous growth potential that exists.
The question that Indian analysts need to answer is whether American positions are becoming untenable? For example, in post-Afghanistan era, with Pakistan’s ability to export terrorism to Central Asia, Bali and other areas and grooming Bangladesh as its subsidiary, the American influence appears to be on the wane. In West and East Asia too, anti-American anti-white feelings are multiplying fast. Therefore, the second question that Indians should grapple with is how to occupy the strategic space that American retreat creates in Asia? Or do we allow this void to be filled by China and its subordinate states? We definitely should not. Hence, unless New Delhi fashions a farsighted strategy to accomplish incremental influence in Asia, we cannot fill this vacuum. If we don’t, then it is a straight jump from the frying pan (where we are stuck now) into the fire!
China’s Race for Supremacy in Asia
It is clearly a strategic fire cleverly stoked to encircle as well as engulf India that marginalises it as a subcontinent power. To dominate Asia, China contained India within the subcontinent by boosting the capabilities and hatred of Pakistan. This disallows New Delhi to expand its influence in Central Asia as the Chinese use Pakistan as their Israel. By transferring nukes and missiles and other equipment to Islamabad, Beijing skilfully transformed the India-China nuclear debate in to an India-Pakistan contest. While China overtly supports the monarchy in Nepal to gain geoeconomic access, with the help of the ISI and North Korean intelligence, it covertly funds the Maoist rebellion, which is inimical to Indian interests.
To dominate Asia, China contained India within the subcontinent by boosting the capabilities and hatred of Pakistan…By transferring nukes and missiles and other equipment to Islamabad, Beijing skilfully transformed the India-China nuclear debate in to an India-Pakistan contest.
With Bangladesh as its new surrogate, it intends to create Pakistan-II on our East. To dominate the Asian market, it has flooded it with cheap subsidised goods, gradually rendering local manufacturers out of business and simultaneously, forcing the exit of Indian merchandise. Nepal stands out as a success story in this strategy. To emerge as the supreme power in Asia, China’s policy is two-pronged – contain India and restrain Japan. Therefore, China will fight India to the last Pakistani! To counter India’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean, Beijing uses Myanmar’s international isolation to further encircle India.
Similarly, by transferring nuclear and missile technology to countries like Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and North Korea, it has forced America to police a larger area. This in turn distracts American concentration away from Beijing with regard to proliferation of sensitive technology. At the same time, China, through a calibrated geoeconomic policy, enticed huge Western investments. This besides spelling prosperity, acts as an insurance cover geopolitically. With astute handling of its diplomatic rhetoric, China has kept the worst memories of the Japanese aggression alive. Aggressive promotion of pacifist tendencies and propping up of North Korea against Japan is a sinister repeat of Pakistan against India. Thus, by intelligently fishing in the troubled Islamic waters and constraining Western allies like Japan and South Korea, it diminishes American influence considerably.
India stands constrained otherwise too. This is due to the negative demographic profile in our neighbourhood. For example on our west, Pakistan’s population that was 74 million in 1975, more than doubled to 156 million in 2000. Estimated to touch a whopping 263 million in 2025. Further, with a failing economy approximately 80 million will be unemployed by 2010. Couple this with the fact that 35 million will be in the age group of 16 to 24 years – an age group from which military and the militants, both recruit. Thus the only employment exchange open (in a state on a tail spin) for this youth is the Jihad factory. History is witness to the horrendous output of this murderous factory. This scenario impacts adversely on the security of both India and Russia.
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Similarities also exist in Bangladesh (Pakistan-II) and Indonesia. Indonesia, which houses the largest Islamic population in the world will double its base from 136 million in 1975 to 274 million in 2025. Bangladesh with a population of 76 million in 1975 is likely to go as high as 179 million in 2025. The bottom line remains that the Jihadi outfits continue to enjoy the luxury of surplus recruits as their cannon fodder! The Bangladesh jihad surplus is eminently visible through the creeping invasion that is changing demography in Assam, West Bengal, the Northeast and Bihar through illegal immigration. It is, therefore, essential that New Delhi cater to potential consequences of this adverse demographic profile in its strategic calculus.
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