Indian Defence Review

Strategy for Incremental Influence in Asia

There are allegations against the Indian Track II strategic community that it stands hijacked by foreign countries. This is purely a perception gap, mainly on two counts. First, the GoI has not put its equity in this community. Second, it is fashionable to use the phrase national interest in every fifth sentence, though New Delhi is yet to identify what constitutes our national interests. Therefore, the strategic community as well as the media flounders.

If New Delhi can harness this positive demographic profile to its advantage by honing it in to a high quality human resource, then India will dominate Asia. If not, this population will be an unbearable burden threatening internal strife.

In the absence of cohesive interaction between the GoI and the rest, it becomes difficult to appreciate why certain aspects need to be argued logically and forcefully in the national and international arena. For instance if foreign lobbies propagate that a stable Pakistan is in our interest or India planned to dismember West Pakistan in 1971, the falsehood is never countered. To negate subtle dissemination of ideas or doctrines that damage our interests, ignorance by our citizenry can never be bliss!

It is not difficult to rationally derive our national interests provided one views the world from New Delhi instead of Washington, Beijing, Brussels or Islamabad. As an example, if we develop a strategic partnership with Japan, Washington finds it palatable. But our alliance with Iran is unpalatable. Yet, looking from New Delhi outward, both are significant relationships, though in different ways. Very often the mistake we make is to borrow a readymade analysis from the West! The most powerful media in Asia can prove to be of immense help in furthering national interests if New Delhi can identify them. To keep defending the massive military mobilisation without neutralising cross-border terrorism was counter-productive and lowered India’s credibility. Voluminous rhetoric can never camouflage reality.

Simply expressed, India’s national interest lies in emerging by 2020 as Asia’s alternate hub of power. The most happening place in Asia, both as an economic as well as a military power. This is essential because in the current century, the action shifts to Asia. Hence, a nation that influences Asia, ultimately impacts globally.

National ambitions to achieve incremental influence demand a do-able strategy. Our demographic profile is eminently suitable to restore the Asian geopolitical balance, which is gradually tilting towards China and the Islamic fundamentalists. Though the size of the population by itself does not confer great power status, a large young population is a prerequisite to evolve as a major player. India’s fertility rate at about 3.1 births per woman will remain ahead of China and the United States beyond 2020. After the initiation of the war on terrorism, America that had so far kept itself young through immigration of skilled people is not likely to continue to enjoy that luxury. First, the scare of mass scale terrorism integrated with a growing Chinese influence will force it to withdraw within Fortress America and pull up the draw bridges. Second, the growing integration of Asia as one large economic bazaar is likely to make emigration less attractive by 2010.

Similarly, the gap between China’s population, which was fifty per cent larger than the Indian population in 1975, will reduce by 2025, with the Red Dragon at 1.5 billion and the largest democracy competing closely with a population base of 1.3 billion people. India will not only reach a closer balance with China but will be a nation of the young while the latter ages rapidly. The young spearhead technological breakthroughs, field militaries, sustain casualties, create adequate labour force, usher in innovations, bring in new thinking and entrepreneurial zeal that enables a nation to project its power.

Beijing has for many decades indulged in supporting states and non-state actors on our periphery and devised strategies to contain or unravel us. Primarily, it is always more economical to fight wars through someone else.

China’s age group between 15-24 peaked in 1990. India’s 15-24 age groups will not only exceed China’s in 2010 but also approximately be twice as large as the combined totals of America, West Europe, Russia and Japan by 2025. At present, the median age for developed countries is approximately 37 years as against China’s 30 and India’s 24. Thus, India is naturally self sufficient for the next three to four decades where working age population is concerned. Unlike America we do not need immigrants to generate national power.

If New Delhi can harness this positive demographic profile to its advantage by honing it in to a high quality human resource, then India will dominate Asia. If not, this population will be an unbearable burden threatening internal strife. Our mantra should be based on fighting the terrorists to the finish and rapid development at the same time. Mass scale terrorism hampers progress and impinges on individual freedom. Attempts to enforce Stone Age Talibanisation impacts on the primary source of the wealth of a nation.

The Indian Army, tasked since 1947 to keep the civil administration functional in the Northeast and J&K despite insurgency and terrorism has delivered admirably. Since the government is unable to exploit the advantage created by the Army at a huge cost in terms of lives lost and the drain of money from the exchequer, we lose not only military surplus in J&K but also revenue worth 1.5 billion dollars that would accrue annually from tourism. Illiteracy, lack of infrastructure and unemployment do not contribute to great power aspirations. Neither does rhetoric!

Another major contradiction that lowers the tempo of India’s rise is the disconnect that exists between the youthful nation and the ageing political leadership. An ageing political leadership does not go to war even if it stares it in the face. For the young in India, the fundamental issue is not Kashmir anymore but Pakistan. Elders turn a blind eye to this fact. The significance of the fact that Pakistan became an issue for the first time in a state election is lost on both Musharraf and our elders. By the same token, while New Delhi struggles to achieve eight per cent per annum growth, a young industrialist sets fifteen per cent as the yardstick. Clearly, the perception gap between the older and the younger generation’s aspirations is almost fifty per cent in all respects! If we can impart dynamism to the national decision-making process along with rapid privatisation, New Delhi’s growth may accelerate to eleven or twelve per cent. Our society is individualistic by nature. Therefore, privatisation is the key ingredient for growth as it is natural to our genius.

Simultaneously, we should scrap Article 370 in J&K and the Inner Line Permit system in the Northeast. A free demographic flow will enable a composite Indian culture to evolve. Both current concepts are flawed, as they remain vulnerable to a strategy of ethnic cleansing by Pakistan and Bangladesh. Such bold measures internally will position India at the top by 2015 – ahead of China in many ways. China’s population is set to rapidly age after 2010 and it shall grow old before it grows rich unlike Japan. India has both, the skills and the potential to grow rich before it grows old. Unleash it.

…accretion of extraordinary military power and its effective employment to ensure multi-front energy security, defence of the expanding economic zone, and use without remorse is essential. Military power is the ultimate weapon of the state.

China will face major problems within this decade. First, economic prosperity is a prelude to a demand for democracy that is growing. A natural corollary to economic freedom is political freedom. Also, with economic prosperity, religion re-surfaces. In this case Buddhism will dominate China again. The fact that Beijing has so far skirted the issue shows the prevalent insecurity. Second, as islands of prosperity increase, the central authority of Beijing will stand diluted. Third, the Chinese hinterland, which lives in abject poverty with instruments of the state practically non-functional, will face social instability, adding to Beijing’s woes. Further, gender inequality will leave fifteen million young men by 2020 without brides causing new societal tensions – a fall out of a compulsory one child norm. These negative factors will witness slowing down of China in the near future as demand for political freedom gains momentum. Admittedly, at this stage, it is difficult to predict whether China unravels or faces a fair share of anarchy in its far-flung territories.

In comparison, India’s hinterland already enjoys political freedom and shall gradually embrace economic prosperity. This will integrate and consolidate the state. Therefore, our strategy vis-a-vis China needs to be two-pronged. First, we must scrutinise aspects like the Chinese hinterland, re-debate Tibet, study the activities of Falun Gong, and consolidate our interaction at economic and military levels with Taiwan or wrest Myanmar out of China’s sphere of influence. Roll back of increasing Chinese sway in our vicinity is essential. In this game plan, a selective proliferation of sensitive technology should be considered actively. The Chinese propose an all-weather friendship with Pakistan. So should we, with many. Period. Second, at the same time, increase economic cooperation with China wherever beneficial. Large inter-connectivity between the two huge markets in Asia will generate sufficient momentum and stability to the world economy.

Beijing has for many decades indulged in supporting states and non-state actors on our periphery and devised strategies to contain or unravel us. Primarily, it is always more economical to fight wars through someone else. Since India is the only country in Asia that can compete and counter-balance China, we have and continue to receive its undivided attention. However, so far China has not succeeded in its strategic objective of either unravelling India or boxing it within the subcontinent. With sluggishness setting in, for reasons cited earlier, and New Delhi’s embarkation on a modernisation of its military with extended reach, Beijing’s chances stand diminished. India’s generation change in motion now, will practically nullify the Chinese ambitions. The Red Dragon may discover that there is no cost-benefit ratio in further confrontation with an economically powerful and militarily geared up India. In fact, with rapid accretion of military power by us, a distinct possibility exists, that both neighbors end up carving out their spheres of influence in Asia!

Though our values have remained consistent since 1947, the American discovery of shared values concept should not surprise us in the emerging geopolitical scenario. It is also true, as a journalist friend keeps reminding me, that India does not have a spat with America. The reality is that India is in many ways a successful and workable model of Western democracies in Asia. Despite the fact that practically every nation from West Europe to North America dipped its greasy fingers in lending support to forces of dismemberment in the Northeast and J&K from time to time. It is a great tribute to that most formidable military machine, the Indian Army that kept the Union intact despite the indulgence by the most powerful armada of nations, which were hell-bent upon mischief. The irony is that the very same Americans today hone their skills at our Army training school for Counter Insurgency and Jungle Warfare. The wheel has turned full circle!

A small country like Pakistan occupies 70 per cent of our security canvas.

Asymmetric targeting capabilities over long distance and ability to coerce and intimidate has placed strategic leverage in the hands of the terrorists. Traditional partners like Turkey and Saudi Arabia deny facilities against Iraq to the USA. Widespread anti-American feelings are gaining ground from South Korea and West Asia to Pakistan. China is working to replace American influence in Asia-Pacific. Such denials in the geoeconomic hub of the world are mounting pressure on the United States to form an informal alliance with non-traditional partners like India.

Therefore, New Delhi must pursue its national interests unmindful of the Americans on two counts. First, frankly the US needs to dovetail its interests in the Asia with our interests. For example, there are many security concerns we share and can use them to our mutual advantage as in the Indian Ocean or Look East policy. But vis-a-vis Pakistan there is a major clash.

True in the case of Iran too, which is a valuable ally in Central Asia. Second, we require initiation of a policy that occupies the strategic space vacated by America as its positions in Asia gradually become untenable.

A small country like Pakistan occupies 70 per cent of our security canvas. The ISI devotes major energy in unravelling us. Initially, this was limited to J&K and the Northeast. Now it is the whole country. Islamabad, with the tacit help and financial support of Beijing and Riyadh spreads mayhem in India through PoK, Nepal and Bangladesh. In this game, American funds and support are a boon to Pakistan. Pakistan not only wants to act as a Sarpanch of the subcontinent but also of Central Asia. Its activities have spread to countries like Burma, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Indonesia, and Malaysia. Pakistani designs will ensure that Indonesia gravitates toward ethnic cleansing. Bangladesh is being quietly developed in to a clone of Pakistan. Joining the ranks shortly shall be Indonesia. The American rhetoric of an Indo-Pak dialogue has become so repetitive that the Bush Administration has actually started believing in it as a serious possibility!

Military power is the ultimate weapon of the state.

Pakistan also wants to earn royalty out of piped oil and gas supplies to India through its territory, so that it can develop resources to further inject Jihadi poison to destroy our secular societal fabric. India is a vast country with adequate resources, talent, brains, unlimited skills, and a positive demographic profile. Unfortunately, small thinkers inherited its governance; bit players. In fifty-five years, the elders have created more problems than solved. It is time for India to move on. Therefore, we must craft a strategy for dominance that propels us to the prime slot in Asia by 2015.

First, ensure that Pakistan does not exist in the hatred mode. Reformat it even if that means physical disarming. It consumes far too much energy, which is a major drag on India’s progress. Spin offs will be many. China will lose one paw and huge investments. Maoists in Nepal will lose their momentum. Bangladesh will develop an affinity towards India. Ethnic cleansing will be deactivated in Indonesia. That in turn will take the heat off Malaysia. Riyadh will rethink its funding to terrorist organisations. Ultimately, our writ should run up to Kazakhstan. This will neutralise the historical route of invasion and ensure a stable Central Asia, permitting the construction of pipelines via Iran to the energy hungry subcontinent. The other key players in Central Asia, Russia and Iran, shall equally reap benefits.

Second, to be the most happening place in Asia, New Delhi should unleash an ambitious plan to rapidly upgrade the infrastructure to attract foreign direct investment. The strategy should be to encourage and make it possible for our immediate neighbors in our Look East policy, West Asia and key strategic partners to invest in India on a preferential basis. Similarly, our investments should flow to them. At the same time, we should bypass Pakistan in SAARC and go bilateral. These actions affect a positive impact by integrating countries in our vicinity, with India acting as the hub. Intelligent geoeconomic policy ensures geopolitical dividends, increasing area of influence. Also, investments from diverse sources act as a guarantee against political blackmail by the powerful.

Last but not the least, accretion of extraordinary military power and its effective employment to ensure multi-front energy security, defence of the expanding economic zone, and use without remorse is essential. Military power is the ultimate weapon of the state. Let us build it up to its full potential. Today, India is in a unique position to access military technology worldwide. Let us use this opportunity to retrofit the Armed Forces with the most modern and lethal equipment available, making them the most potent military machine in the region. Simultaneously, train and equip militarily the defence forces of friendly nations – this will increase inter-operability besides being a fruitful economic investment with beneficial political overtones.

Our politicians should focus their energies on external irritants like Pakistan that want to destroy India, instead of wasting them internally on non-issues. Also, given the hostile environment that we face, a militarisation of the Indian mind is vital, to avoid the pitfalls of communalisation of the polity. Therefore, India must pick up the sword once again, a sword that a former Emperor laid to rest centuries ago in victory.