Indian Defence Review

Vladimir Putin

A “new cold war” has begun to emerge and in the shadow wars between the US and Russia, the Russians certainly seem to have an edge over.

One of the reasons the Cold War remained ‘cold’ because the West and the Warsaw Pact nations fought a ‘shadowy war’ run by spymasters across the world. Who won the Cold War largely depended on who dominated the spooky world. Just as military alliances, intelligence alliances began to emerge on lines of national security and common threat perception.

An example: the Five Eyes. In terms of geographical demarcation, Europe had become the hotbed for espionage activities like stealing secrets, buying and recruiting agents while the third world countries were the ‘bloody’ grounds for covert action. All efforts were made to bury trails of involvement and field officers resorted covert battlefield tactics such as secret funding of political parties, propaganda dissemination and other forms of subversive actions. Both the western agencies and the erstwhile Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti (KGB) had their share of successes and failures before the Soviet Union collapsed.

But now the Cold War is over. The world has undergone a metamorphosis in power structures; from bipolarity- followed by an era of a single superpower- to multi-polarity. A “New World Order” has emerged where countries with weak militaries but strong economies, regional power players, and even non-state actors have a dominant voice in international affairs. Yet, two decades later, Russia has quite overtly insinuated its will to re-emerge as a power to reckon with. Russia’s global footprint is increasing notwithstanding the leadership of Vladimir Putin- a former KGB officer- with an ambition to bring back the lost glory. Against this backdrop, it is worthy of assessing some of the intelligence activities by Sluzhba vneshney razvedki (SVR)- foreign intelligence, the Federal Security Bureau (FSB)- domestic intelligence and Glavnoye Razvedyvatel’noye Upravleniye (GRU)- military intelligence in key areas that has a potential to facilitate a geopolitical transformation favouring a Russian worldview. Some of these probably had a Russian hand and some didn’t.

Dump Trump, Ghost Stories and Russian Footprint in the Western Hemisphere

It takes little wisdom to assert that the US is one of the primary targets of Russian intelligence and vice-versa. Russian “illegals” take a crucial place in the US counterintelligence tasking. An operation launched by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) codenamed Ghost Stories uncovered deep cover Russian spies- SVR agents- living bereft of diplomatic immunity using fake identities: mainly Canadian and British.[1] The Royal Canadian Mounted Police has also been actively pursuing Russian spies in Canada. These spies of Cold War origin have facilitated negotiations with Moscow for the exchange of arrested spies in Russia. However, this is just part of Russian intelligence news from North America. The most significant of all intelligence coups is the current political atmosphere in the US.

Recent tussles between President Trump and the US intelligence community over the alleged Russian efforts to manipulate the election results as well as the leak of Trump Dossier to malign his image are nothing short of a strategic bonanza for the Russians. While a Russian hand cannot be completely disregarded- Hubert Humphrey and Henry Jackson being previous targets of the KGB- this time it appears a home-grown conspiracy. Renowned journalist M.D. Nalapat in an investigative piece cites US based sources to expose a network of conspirators within the US working on a “1000-day plan” to oust President Trump.[2] Such internal subversion, when considered in terms of intelligence wars, should have cost Russia years of preparation managed with reliable intelligence, hefty sums spent on raising agent provocateurs and building assets within the political and intelligence circles. All expenses were borne by western personnel whose personal interests transcend American national interests. Media investigations have brought to surface an insidious chain of former intelligence personnel, think tanks and rich sponsors- all western- that worked to develop the dossier.[3]

Apart from causing chaos in the domestic sphere, the ensuing bout with the intelligence community has left seeds of paranoia in US-led global intelligence sharing systems. US intelligence officials have warned their Israeli counterpart against sharing intelligence with Trump lest they want the intelligence to reach Moscow and subsequently Tehran. While speculations on Moscow running Trump as its agent can continue, conspicuous to the observer is the fact that an effort is being made to pulverize Trump’s pro-Israel stance that denounces the Iran nuclear deal. Currently, similar fears are expressed by the UK intelligence community and anxiety is fed to countries like Germany and France by former US intelligence officials like John Brennan, Steven Hall, and Michael Hayden.[4] An intelligence coup- disrupting intelligence alliance to this extent- would have required Moscow to launch a massive offensive counterintelligence campaign. Still, success wouldn’t be guaranteed, but now the Americans are doing the dirty job on Moscow’s behalf.

The US may, in fact, be the last stop for Russian intelligence ambitions in the western hemisphere. Over the last couple of years, Moscow has made strategic inroads into America’s backyard. Russian money, arms, intelligence personnel, and infrastructure have already spread across the Latin American and the Caribbean states. Not surprising that these states either voted against condemning Russian aggression in Crimea, or abstained voting. Ergo, the intelligence activities in the western hemisphere have left opened a nasty Pandora’s Box for the US and its friends- much to the delight of the Kremlin.

US-Russian Intelligence Contest over the Craggy Middle East

The civil war in Syria invited a hitherto ‘present but not visible’ Russia into international focus. Military successes in Syria against the CIA backed rebels have given the Russian intelligence an operating ground in the Middle East. Russian military and intelligence superiority became evident late September 2016, when Russia struck the “Operations Room” in Aleppo, a facility used by American, British, Israeli and Qatari intelligence personnel. Further notwithstanding academic speculations in the US about an impending military coup in Turkey, the US intelligence community seemed rather oblivious. Russian intelligence scored yet another brownie by tipping off the Turkish National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) hours before the coup. Russian signals intelligence officials were able to intercept communications between Turkish military commanders from Latkia, northern Syria. Ever since, Russo-Turkish relationship has become a source of worry among the CIA with fears of a tilt towards the Shanghai Five. At present, intelligence liaison in Syria is active; Russian intelligence agencies share communications, electronic and imagery intelligence with the MIT in exchange for intelligence assessments and human intelligence.[5]

Russian encounters with the US intelligence do not end with Syria but extend to the war in Yemen and against the Islamic State (IS). Russian intelligence officials proved to be a pain in the neck when American operational secrets in Yemen were revealed. Such revelations came at a time US intelligence gathering in Yemen had reached a nadir. To make matters worse, the SVR unearthed a plausible sloppy alliance between the US, Saudi and ISIS by capturing CIA assets who allegedly assisted the IS in downing a Russian flight.[6] On accounts of such complexities and backlashes, the US decided to pull away from Yemen and consequently, Russia is filling the void with active support from Iran and Syria. SVR has also revealed Saudi’s provision of electronic gadgets to the IS and shared with the international intelligence community intelligence on 40 countries financing IS. The middle-eastern geopolitics has indeed reached the death overs and the Russian intelligence clearly has a better strike rate.

Russian Intelligence, Psychological Operations and New Cold War in Europe

Europe had been the centre for most Cold War espionage business. London had become a “playground for spies”; Vienna was regarded as an “intelligence hotspot” and Switzerland- “a notorious spy centre”. Today, the resurgence of a New Cold War is being hypothesized over the changing patterns of intelligence activities in Europe. Unclassified reports drafted by counterintelligence and military intelligence agencies of the Scandinavian nations highlight increasing Russian intelligence activities. A March 2016 intelligence assessment by Säkerhetspolisen, Swedish Security Service, traces the aggressive informational and psychological operations conducted by the Russian intelligence agencies to manipulate public opinion.[7] The Cold War espionage battle in Europe primarily involved turning dissenters and expatriates into agents. Russian intelligence services have embarked on similar operations making contacts with radical right-wing organisations in Sweden.

Similar concerns are expressed by Finland, Denmark, Norway, and Iceland. Russia has significantly increased its capabilities to conduct psychological operations, cyber espionage, gather military, technological and business intelligence. Russian intelligence activities in the Scandinavian countries have led analysts to conclude Russian designs to dominate the Baltic, Scandinavian and Arctic region- in the long run, frustrate NATO, EU and other forms of European cooperation. Annual report of the Security Information Service (BIS), Czech counterintelligence agency also draws attention to information warfare mounted by Russian intelligence.[8] A Czech populace, already distrustful of its government and the media, is more likely to fall victim to Russia’s informational warfare and “black propaganda” leading up to the 2018 presidential elections.

In Western Europe, intelligence agencies studied Russian advancements in Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine and drew assessments on her hybrid warfare designs. Spreading of false propaganda and covert assistance to right wing political parties and others favouring Kremlin was rightly recognised as the modus operandi of the Russian intelligence services. However, the present state of intelligence cooperation within Europe is cause for worry. The Snowden imbroglio and Brexit have distanced cooperation between British and other western European intelligence agencies. Snowden files’ and WikiLeaks’ allegations of British and American espionage on Berlin have created a rift between the MI6 and Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND). According to one source, “there is virtual radio silence” and cooperation seems out of sight with the British accusing the Germans of weak information security.[9] Beyond Germany, with the western alliance in bad shape, Russian intelligence have made inroads into Europe and developed contacts with dissenting groups like Jobbik in Hungary, Golden Dawn in Greece, the Northern League in Italy, France’s Front National and sections of Austrian political community- a move that has prompted security and intelligence experts to declare the evolution of a “new cold war”.[10]

Russia’s Spy Games in its Backyard

The popular assessment in the SVR is that the US approach to Russia still continues on the principles of Cold War “containment” strategy. Russian intelligence officials rationalise the “Maidan Revolution” as a US effort to contain Russian growth. Coup d’etat- a time tested strategy- across theatres in Latin America, Middle East, and Africa had enhanced US confidence in replicating the same in Ukraine. While American strategic minds still comprehend the wisdom behind NATO expansion into Russian backyard, an aggressive Russian response, as envisaged, has raised Putin’s resolve to establish military supremacy in the region.[11] Since then, Russian intelligence agencies, the SVR, GRU and the FSB have been actively pursuing a goal of creating a Russian sphere of influence within the post-Soviet states.

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The propaganda campaign run by Russian intelligence led to the pro-Russian uprising and the subsequent secession of Crimea. A similar propaganda campaign to instil pro-Russian opinion in Kyrgyzstan has been in place. The Russian intelligence agents have ruthlessly pursued antagonistic political personalities in Kyrgyzstan and mounted missions to tarnish their image. In one instance the leader of ‘Fatherland Party’ was exposed on promiscuous activities and in another, the leader of ‘Homeland Party’ was accused of being a drug trafficker.[12] Offensive Russian intelligence occupation has left the US stranded with no reliable partnering agency in the region. Even in Ukraine, where the US intelligence has a limited presence, has voiced apprehensions against sharing intelligence with Ukraine (SBU) considering the infiltration of Russian intelligence. US apprehensions come after a series of imagery intelligence reports shared with Ukraine reached Moscow; and also upon concerns over several Ukrainian intelligence officials fleeing to Russia.[13]