Indian Defence Review

A former Russian intelligence official notified that an idea to replicate the Ukrainian success in Belarus to oust President Alexander Lukashenko was considered. Such arguments find logic when looked at Belarus as a neutral nation, not taking sides in the Ukrainian crisis. Nonetheless, Belarusian intelligence agencies have been positively cooperating with the Russian intelligence services; most notably in Lithuania. Lithuanian Intelligence Agency VSD (Valstybes Saugumo Departamentas) has time and again accused the Russian and the Belarusian GRU infiltrating and subverting the armed forces. Several Belarusian and Russian assets in the Lithuanian armed forces have been arrested by Lithuanian counterintelligence authorities. For its part, the FSB has been raising its club of informers and spies among the many Lithuanians who illegally cross over Russian borders to avail products at cheaper prices. Russian-Belarusian intelligence cooperation extends to Poland where the duo have been targeting Poland’s energy sector as well as Poland’s EU, NATO policies. This intelligence relationship between Russia and Belarus is a classic example of how complicated hidden relationships exist over a common goal, while the leaders- Putin and Lakushenko- pursue independent foreign policies.[14]

As of now, Estonia appears to be the only country to have decoded Russian spy game. On the first appearance of an agent provocateur, Estonian security authorities have been authorised to act against them. From the Baltic to the Caspian Sea, the US and Russian intelligence agencies will continue to battle for hegemony. The modus operandi of Russian intelligence services has been candid. The disintegration of the Soviet Union has left huge minority groups in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). These minorities are the primary target of the Russian intelligence, assisted by a dedicated campaign of disinformation and propaganda. Intelligence operations are Putin’s safe bet to further his strategic reach in Russia’s backyard since a direct confrontation with NATO forces is presently undesirable.

Inspection of the Russian Intelligence in the New Cold War

As elaborated above, a new cold war is indeed brewing and the intelligence agencies are its primary focus. Russia enjoys the tutelage of a seasoned spymaster- Vladimir Putin- who although does not provide an alternate economic model to counter the western hegemony, is capable of employing all intelligence tools at his disposal to rattle the present US led international order. The US on the other hand, as seen in the first section, are cruising on a path that bears no clarity of direction. The departing administration has quite distinctly left behind a truckload of challenges to the incumbent president, such that a ‘mopping operation’ will first have to be mounted to weed out potential double agents (anti-Trump) within the administration, congress, bureaucracies, intelligence community and the media.

Intelligence failures of the Obama administration in the Middle East are numerous but the biggest intelligence failure came when Edward Snowden sought political asylum in Russia. Anyone familiar with the Cold War spy games will know that defectors from either side of the iron curtain provided their hosts with a wealth of intelligence. The extent of intelligence transferred to the FSB by Snowden will remain anybody’s guess. But, going by the damage assessments made by American security and intelligence analysts Snowden files have caused “tremendous and irreversible” damage to the US. This should explain Google search engine being filled with questions like “Is Snowden a Russian Agent”? Read the Snowden quandary with raising Russian cyber espionage and hacking activities, the status of US cyber security and warfare seems alarming. In an effort to conceal accusations of cyber espionage, Putin has raised a new cyber security doctrine last month that further strengthens the FSB in its counterintelligence operations as well as spread victimisation images of cyber espionage by western agencies- a concept some experts term as “state sponsored hacking”.[15]

In an old fashioned style, Russian agents under the authorisation of Putin have been carrying out assassinations and targeted killings of individuals. Like Cold War thrillers are fraught with stories of intelligence agents going after moles and defectors in foreign territories, the new cold war also offers ample stories. Several individuals like Anna Politkovskaya, Alexander Litvinenko, Pavel Sheremet, Oleg Zhukovsky and others in Asia, Europe and America have been killed by Russian intelligence operatives. A testimony of the dynamism of Russian intelligence is not the ability to reach these individuals in foreign territory but to escape without charges of murder. With an undisturbed political backing by President Putin, the assassins arrested elsewhere have been released and recalled while British and American officials have been battling hard to implicate the killers- but in vain.[16]

One area where both Russian and the US intelligence agencies have a competition in future is tapping into fibre optic cables that run through the seas and oceans. While the Snowden affair is distinctively a signals and communications intelligence gathering by intercepting signals a large section of internet traffic still remains alien to satellite coverage. These are cables running at the bottom of the oceans. The Russian Navy has been detected by sensors manoeuvring through illegal waters and the speculations are regarding sabotaging the cables. In the past, Russian spy ships, in this regard, were spotted off the coast of Georgia and the US.[17]

Apart from competition with the Russian intelligence, it is legitimate to be aware of some of their inherent weaknesses. In an attempt to motivate intelligence agencies to operate aggressively Putin has failed to address the problem of overlapping functions. A move, that US intelligence community terms ‘competitive intelligence’, Russian intelligence agencies are aggressively gathering intelligence from one region leading to raising costs for limited intelligence. Keeping apart Putin’s oversight on matters of coordination, such a competitive system has the potential to result in analytical deficits and turf wars.

In the final remarks, it is logical to submit the recommendations made by Mark Galeotti to counter the Russian aggressive intelligence operations.

Firstly, the West must raise strong counterintelligence mechanisms if they have to counter the Russian hybrid threat.

Secondly, offensive operations are mandatory to threaten Russian intelligence operatives both directly and indirectly by negating local support for operations.

Thirdly, Mark advocates following the money trail so that choking financial supply can make intelligence operations challenging. At present, covert operations involve a lot of money being paid to a lot of individuals.

Finally, Mark calls for an appropriate appreciation of the threat. Here, Mark calls this “not a new cold war”- reasoning that Russia is yet to pose a geopolitical threat.[18] There is a strong wisdom in this argument, but as long as the US presents an incomprehensible outlook, European intelligence agencies struggle with disagreement and non-cooperation, and Russian intelligence services march a steady path of confrontation- a new cold war in the spooky world is looming.