Indian Defence Review

Vladimir Putin

A “new cold war” has begun to emerge and in the shadow wars between the US and Russia, the Russians certainly seem to have an edge over.

One of the reasons the Cold War remained ‘cold’ because the West and the Warsaw Pact nations fought a ‘shadowy war’ run by spymasters across the world. Who won the Cold War largely depended on who dominated the spooky world. Just as military alliances, intelligence alliances began to emerge on lines of national security and common threat perception.

An example: the Five Eyes. In terms of geographical demarcation, Europe had become the hotbed for espionage activities like stealing secrets, buying and recruiting agents while the third world countries were the ‘bloody’ grounds for covert action. All efforts were made to bury trails of involvement and field officers resorted covert battlefield tactics such as secret funding of political parties, propaganda dissemination and other forms of subversive actions. Both the western agencies and the erstwhile Komitet Gosudarstvennoy Bezopasnosti (KGB) had their share of successes and failures before the Soviet Union collapsed.

But now the Cold War is over. The world has undergone a metamorphosis in power structures; from bipolarity- followed by an era of a single superpower- to multi-polarity. A “New World Order” has emerged where countries with weak militaries but strong economies, regional power players, and even non-state actors have a dominant voice in international affairs. Yet, two decades later, Russia has quite overtly insinuated its will to re-emerge as a power to reckon with. Russia’s global footprint is increasing notwithstanding the leadership of Vladimir Putin- a former KGB officer- with an ambition to bring back the lost glory. Against this backdrop, it is worthy of assessing some of the intelligence activities by Sluzhba vneshney razvedki (SVR)- foreign intelligence, the Federal Security Bureau (FSB)- domestic intelligence and Glavnoye Razvedyvatel’noye Upravleniye (GRU)- military intelligence in key areas that has a potential to facilitate a geopolitical transformation favouring a Russian worldview. Some of these probably had a Russian hand and some didn’t.

Dump Trump, Ghost Stories and Russian Footprint in the Western Hemisphere

It takes little wisdom to assert that the US is one of the primary targets of Russian intelligence and vice-versa. Russian “illegals” take a crucial place in the US counterintelligence tasking. An operation launched by the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) codenamed Ghost Stories uncovered deep cover Russian spies- SVR agents- living bereft of diplomatic immunity using fake identities: mainly Canadian and British.[1] The Royal Canadian Mounted Police has also been actively pursuing Russian spies in Canada. These spies of Cold War origin have facilitated negotiations with Moscow for the exchange of arrested spies in Russia. However, this is just part of Russian intelligence news from North America. The most significant of all intelligence coups is the current political atmosphere in the US.

Recent tussles between President Trump and the US intelligence community over the alleged Russian efforts to manipulate the election results as well as the leak of Trump Dossier to malign his image are nothing short of a strategic bonanza for the Russians. While a Russian hand cannot be completely disregarded- Hubert Humphrey and Henry Jackson being previous targets of the KGB- this time it appears a home-grown conspiracy. Renowned journalist M.D. Nalapat in an investigative piece cites US based sources to expose a network of conspirators within the US working on a “1000-day plan” to oust President Trump.[2] Such internal subversion, when considered in terms of intelligence wars, should have cost Russia years of preparation managed with reliable intelligence, hefty sums spent on raising agent provocateurs and building assets within the political and intelligence circles. All expenses were borne by western personnel whose personal interests transcend American national interests. Media investigations have brought to surface an insidious chain of former intelligence personnel, think tanks and rich sponsors- all western- that worked to develop the dossier.[3]

Apart from causing chaos in the domestic sphere, the ensuing bout with the intelligence community has left seeds of paranoia in US-led global intelligence sharing systems. US intelligence officials have warned their Israeli counterpart against sharing intelligence with Trump lest they want the intelligence to reach Moscow and subsequently Tehran. While speculations on Moscow running Trump as its agent can continue, conspicuous to the observer is the fact that an effort is being made to pulverize Trump’s pro-Israel stance that denounces the Iran nuclear deal. Currently, similar fears are expressed by the UK intelligence community and anxiety is fed to countries like Germany and France by former US intelligence officials like John Brennan, Steven Hall, and Michael Hayden.[4] An intelligence coup- disrupting intelligence alliance to this extent- would have required Moscow to launch a massive offensive counterintelligence campaign. Still, success wouldn’t be guaranteed, but now the Americans are doing the dirty job on Moscow’s behalf.

The US may, in fact, be the last stop for Russian intelligence ambitions in the western hemisphere. Over the last couple of years, Moscow has made strategic inroads into America’s backyard. Russian money, arms, intelligence personnel, and infrastructure have already spread across the Latin American and the Caribbean states. Not surprising that these states either voted against condemning Russian aggression in Crimea, or abstained voting. Ergo, the intelligence activities in the western hemisphere have left opened a nasty Pandora’s Box for the US and its friends- much to the delight of the Kremlin.

US-Russian Intelligence Contest over the Craggy Middle East

The civil war in Syria invited a hitherto ‘present but not visible’ Russia into international focus. Military successes in Syria against the CIA backed rebels have given the Russian intelligence an operating ground in the Middle East. Russian military and intelligence superiority became evident late September 2016, when Russia struck the “Operations Room” in Aleppo, a facility used by American, British, Israeli and Qatari intelligence personnel. Further notwithstanding academic speculations in the US about an impending military coup in Turkey, the US intelligence community seemed rather oblivious. Russian intelligence scored yet another brownie by tipping off the Turkish National Intelligence Organisation (MIT) hours before the coup. Russian signals intelligence officials were able to intercept communications between Turkish military commanders from Latkia, northern Syria. Ever since, Russo-Turkish relationship has become a source of worry among the CIA with fears of a tilt towards the Shanghai Five. At present, intelligence liaison in Syria is active; Russian intelligence agencies share communications, electronic and imagery intelligence with the MIT in exchange for intelligence assessments and human intelligence.[5]

Russian encounters with the US intelligence do not end with Syria but extend to the war in Yemen and against the Islamic State (IS). Russian intelligence officials proved to be a pain in the neck when American operational secrets in Yemen were revealed. Such revelations came at a time US intelligence gathering in Yemen had reached a nadir. To make matters worse, the SVR unearthed a plausible sloppy alliance between the US, Saudi and ISIS by capturing CIA assets who allegedly assisted the IS in downing a Russian flight.[6] On accounts of such complexities and backlashes, the US decided to pull away from Yemen and consequently, Russia is filling the void with active support from Iran and Syria. SVR has also revealed Saudi’s provision of electronic gadgets to the IS and shared with the international intelligence community intelligence on 40 countries financing IS. The middle-eastern geopolitics has indeed reached the death overs and the Russian intelligence clearly has a better strike rate.

Russian Intelligence, Psychological Operations and New Cold War in Europe

Europe had been the centre for most Cold War espionage business. London had become a “playground for spies”; Vienna was regarded as an “intelligence hotspot” and Switzerland- “a notorious spy centre”. Today, the resurgence of a New Cold War is being hypothesized over the changing patterns of intelligence activities in Europe. Unclassified reports drafted by counterintelligence and military intelligence agencies of the Scandinavian nations highlight increasing Russian intelligence activities. A March 2016 intelligence assessment by Säkerhetspolisen, Swedish Security Service, traces the aggressive informational and psychological operations conducted by the Russian intelligence agencies to manipulate public opinion.[7] The Cold War espionage battle in Europe primarily involved turning dissenters and expatriates into agents. Russian intelligence services have embarked on similar operations making contacts with radical right-wing organisations in Sweden.

Similar concerns are expressed by Finland, Denmark, Norway, and Iceland. Russia has significantly increased its capabilities to conduct psychological operations, cyber espionage, gather military, technological and business intelligence. Russian intelligence activities in the Scandinavian countries have led analysts to conclude Russian designs to dominate the Baltic, Scandinavian and Arctic region- in the long run, frustrate NATO, EU and other forms of European cooperation. Annual report of the Security Information Service (BIS), Czech counterintelligence agency also draws attention to information warfare mounted by Russian intelligence.[8] A Czech populace, already distrustful of its government and the media, is more likely to fall victim to Russia’s informational warfare and “black propaganda” leading up to the 2018 presidential elections.

In Western Europe, intelligence agencies studied Russian advancements in Georgia, Crimea, and Ukraine and drew assessments on her hybrid warfare designs. Spreading of false propaganda and covert assistance to right wing political parties and others favouring Kremlin was rightly recognised as the modus operandi of the Russian intelligence services. However, the present state of intelligence cooperation within Europe is cause for worry. The Snowden imbroglio and Brexit have distanced cooperation between British and other western European intelligence agencies. Snowden files’ and WikiLeaks’ allegations of British and American espionage on Berlin have created a rift between the MI6 and Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND). According to one source, “there is virtual radio silence” and cooperation seems out of sight with the British accusing the Germans of weak information security.[9] Beyond Germany, with the western alliance in bad shape, Russian intelligence have made inroads into Europe and developed contacts with dissenting groups like Jobbik in Hungary, Golden Dawn in Greece, the Northern League in Italy, France’s Front National and sections of Austrian political community- a move that has prompted security and intelligence experts to declare the evolution of a “new cold war”.[10]

Russia’s Spy Games in its Backyard

The popular assessment in the SVR is that the US approach to Russia still continues on the principles of Cold War “containment” strategy. Russian intelligence officials rationalise the “Maidan Revolution” as a US effort to contain Russian growth. Coup d’etat- a time tested strategy- across theatres in Latin America, Middle East, and Africa had enhanced US confidence in replicating the same in Ukraine. While American strategic minds still comprehend the wisdom behind NATO expansion into Russian backyard, an aggressive Russian response, as envisaged, has raised Putin’s resolve to establish military supremacy in the region.[11] Since then, Russian intelligence agencies, the SVR, GRU and the FSB have been actively pursuing a goal of creating a Russian sphere of influence within the post-Soviet states.

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The propaganda campaign run by Russian intelligence led to the pro-Russian uprising and the subsequent secession of Crimea. A similar propaganda campaign to instil pro-Russian opinion in Kyrgyzstan has been in place. The Russian intelligence agents have ruthlessly pursued antagonistic political personalities in Kyrgyzstan and mounted missions to tarnish their image. In one instance the leader of ‘Fatherland Party’ was exposed on promiscuous activities and in another, the leader of ‘Homeland Party’ was accused of being a drug trafficker.[12] Offensive Russian intelligence occupation has left the US stranded with no reliable partnering agency in the region. Even in Ukraine, where the US intelligence has a limited presence, has voiced apprehensions against sharing intelligence with Ukraine (SBU) considering the infiltration of Russian intelligence. US apprehensions come after a series of imagery intelligence reports shared with Ukraine reached Moscow; and also upon concerns over several Ukrainian intelligence officials fleeing to Russia.[13]

A former Russian intelligence official notified that an idea to replicate the Ukrainian success in Belarus to oust President Alexander Lukashenko was considered. Such arguments find logic when looked at Belarus as a neutral nation, not taking sides in the Ukrainian crisis. Nonetheless, Belarusian intelligence agencies have been positively cooperating with the Russian intelligence services; most notably in Lithuania. Lithuanian Intelligence Agency VSD (Valstybes Saugumo Departamentas) has time and again accused the Russian and the Belarusian GRU infiltrating and subverting the armed forces. Several Belarusian and Russian assets in the Lithuanian armed forces have been arrested by Lithuanian counterintelligence authorities. For its part, the FSB has been raising its club of informers and spies among the many Lithuanians who illegally cross over Russian borders to avail products at cheaper prices. Russian-Belarusian intelligence cooperation extends to Poland where the duo have been targeting Poland’s energy sector as well as Poland’s EU, NATO policies. This intelligence relationship between Russia and Belarus is a classic example of how complicated hidden relationships exist over a common goal, while the leaders- Putin and Lakushenko- pursue independent foreign policies.[14]

As of now, Estonia appears to be the only country to have decoded Russian spy game. On the first appearance of an agent provocateur, Estonian security authorities have been authorised to act against them. From the Baltic to the Caspian Sea, the US and Russian intelligence agencies will continue to battle for hegemony. The modus operandi of Russian intelligence services has been candid. The disintegration of the Soviet Union has left huge minority groups in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). These minorities are the primary target of the Russian intelligence, assisted by a dedicated campaign of disinformation and propaganda. Intelligence operations are Putin’s safe bet to further his strategic reach in Russia’s backyard since a direct confrontation with NATO forces is presently undesirable.

Inspection of the Russian Intelligence in the New Cold War

As elaborated above, a new cold war is indeed brewing and the intelligence agencies are its primary focus. Russia enjoys the tutelage of a seasoned spymaster- Vladimir Putin- who although does not provide an alternate economic model to counter the western hegemony, is capable of employing all intelligence tools at his disposal to rattle the present US led international order. The US on the other hand, as seen in the first section, are cruising on a path that bears no clarity of direction. The departing administration has quite distinctly left behind a truckload of challenges to the incumbent president, such that a ‘mopping operation’ will first have to be mounted to weed out potential double agents (anti-Trump) within the administration, congress, bureaucracies, intelligence community and the media.

Intelligence failures of the Obama administration in the Middle East are numerous but the biggest intelligence failure came when Edward Snowden sought political asylum in Russia. Anyone familiar with the Cold War spy games will know that defectors from either side of the iron curtain provided their hosts with a wealth of intelligence. The extent of intelligence transferred to the FSB by Snowden will remain anybody’s guess. But, going by the damage assessments made by American security and intelligence analysts Snowden files have caused “tremendous and irreversible” damage to the US. This should explain Google search engine being filled with questions like “Is Snowden a Russian Agent”? Read the Snowden quandary with raising Russian cyber espionage and hacking activities, the status of US cyber security and warfare seems alarming. In an effort to conceal accusations of cyber espionage, Putin has raised a new cyber security doctrine last month that further strengthens the FSB in its counterintelligence operations as well as spread victimisation images of cyber espionage by western agencies- a concept some experts term as “state sponsored hacking”.[15]

In an old fashioned style, Russian agents under the authorisation of Putin have been carrying out assassinations and targeted killings of individuals. Like Cold War thrillers are fraught with stories of intelligence agents going after moles and defectors in foreign territories, the new cold war also offers ample stories. Several individuals like Anna Politkovskaya, Alexander Litvinenko, Pavel Sheremet, Oleg Zhukovsky and others in Asia, Europe and America have been killed by Russian intelligence operatives. A testimony of the dynamism of Russian intelligence is not the ability to reach these individuals in foreign territory but to escape without charges of murder. With an undisturbed political backing by President Putin, the assassins arrested elsewhere have been released and recalled while British and American officials have been battling hard to implicate the killers- but in vain.[16]

One area where both Russian and the US intelligence agencies have a competition in future is tapping into fibre optic cables that run through the seas and oceans. While the Snowden affair is distinctively a signals and communications intelligence gathering by intercepting signals a large section of internet traffic still remains alien to satellite coverage. These are cables running at the bottom of the oceans. The Russian Navy has been detected by sensors manoeuvring through illegal waters and the speculations are regarding sabotaging the cables. In the past, Russian spy ships, in this regard, were spotted off the coast of Georgia and the US.[17]

Apart from competition with the Russian intelligence, it is legitimate to be aware of some of their inherent weaknesses. In an attempt to motivate intelligence agencies to operate aggressively Putin has failed to address the problem of overlapping functions. A move, that US intelligence community terms ‘competitive intelligence’, Russian intelligence agencies are aggressively gathering intelligence from one region leading to raising costs for limited intelligence. Keeping apart Putin’s oversight on matters of coordination, such a competitive system has the potential to result in analytical deficits and turf wars.

In the final remarks, it is logical to submit the recommendations made by Mark Galeotti to counter the Russian aggressive intelligence operations.

Firstly, the West must raise strong counterintelligence mechanisms if they have to counter the Russian hybrid threat.

Secondly, offensive operations are mandatory to threaten Russian intelligence operatives both directly and indirectly by negating local support for operations.

Thirdly, Mark advocates following the money trail so that choking financial supply can make intelligence operations challenging. At present, covert operations involve a lot of money being paid to a lot of individuals.

Finally, Mark calls for an appropriate appreciation of the threat. Here, Mark calls this “not a new cold war”- reasoning that Russia is yet to pose a geopolitical threat.[18] There is a strong wisdom in this argument, but as long as the US presents an incomprehensible outlook, European intelligence agencies struggle with disagreement and non-cooperation, and Russian intelligence services march a steady path of confrontation- a new cold war in the spooky world is looming.