Indian Defence Review

Myanmar’s main opposition party, the National League for Democracy (NLD) led by Aung San Suu Kyi has won a resounding victory, sweeping through Myanmar’s elections with 37 additional seats over the threshold of 329 seats required for majority in the two-houses of Parliament.

The world watches as Myanmar turns a leaf into democracy. But the question remains whether peace will prevail in the country. Myanmar Military has launched fresh offensive against Kachin rebels. There have been reports of aerial bombardment, use of helicopter gunships and artillery being used to support ground operations, particularly in the region of Monhnyin in Kachin State.

The KIO was not one of the signatories of a so-called nationwide cease-fire agreement between the government and eight ethnic armed groups reached on October 15. The United State Wa Army (USWA) also claimed government troops launched airstrikes in a further escalation of fighting with ethnic rebels in central Shan State.

Myanmar Army had earlier launched a fresh attack on rebel soldiers in eastern Myanmar’s Shan state last month with fighting erupting near Loilen district’s Monghsu township headquarters of the Shan State Army-North (SSA-N), the armed wing of the Shan State Progressive Party (SSPP), causing Shan villagers to flee to safety. Myanmar’s military has blamed the rebels in recent weeks for starting the clashes. Some 40 percent of the population of Myanmar is members of various ethnic groups.

The irony in Myanmar is that it has a neighbor in China that apes the US in every possible manner though softening the tactics through the façade of “with Chinese characteristics”. So while the world is witness to the Obama Administration continuing full support to Pakistan (the epicenter of global terrorism – with links to ISIS, Al Qaeda, Taliban and another score number of terrorist organizations) and Saudi Arabia funding terrorism globally, the US continues with its so called GWOT, even bombing the ISIS after this terrorist organization was trained, armed, funded and permitted to merge in some six-seven million civilian population. So how does China apply this to Myanmar?

Despite having intimate economic defence relations with Myanmar past several years with an eye for her strategic outreach to the Indian Ocean including developing roads, waterways, ports, China has continued to arm and fund rebel ethnic groups in Myanmar, particularly the KIO and the USWA. In fact, Myanmar would have been turned into a nuclear protégé by China had Myanmar been a communist or a radical rogue nation.

Danny B Stillman and Thomas Reed write in their book ‘The Nuclear Express – A political History of the Bomb and its Proliferation’, “China under Deng Xiaoping decided to proliferate nuclear technology to communists and radical Muslim countries of third world (read Pakistan and North Korea) based on strategy that if they nuked the West without Chinese fingerprints, it would be good for China.”

Suu Kye, daughter of Myanmar’s independence hero, Gen Aung San, spent 15 years under house arrest between 1989 and 2010, despite her NLD winning a landslide in elections in 1990 which were later nullified Awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 for “her non-violent struggle for democracy and human rights”, she was sidelined in 2010 elections but released from house arrest six days later.

She won a parliamentary seat in 2012 by-election, when Myanmar adopted liberalizing reforms. Though Suu Kyi has bagged a parliamentary seat for herself in the current elections, she is barred from becoming President of Myanmar despite the massive NLD win because her husband was foreigner and her children are foreign nationals, under a constitutional clause inserted by the junta while transferring power to a quasi-civilian government in 2011; many feel this was done specifically to rule her out.

However, Suu Kyi has said that she will be the country’s de facto leader, acting “above the President,” if her party forms the next government. Capturing the presidency and Parliament would give the NLD power over legislation, economic policy and foreign relations, although the constitution guarantees that the military will keep control of the ministries of defense, interior and border security. Also, the military will be able to legally block constitutional amendments. 

The ruling Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), which was created by the junta is led by retired soldiers but the Army remains a formidable power. In addition to his bloc of parliamentary seats (25% seats are reserved for the military), the C-in-C nominates the heads of the interior, defense and border security ministries  and the constitution gives him the right to take over the government under certain circumstances.

Presently, the military has said it will abide by the public’s voting and the President has assured transition of power to the new government but there are questions how power sharing between Suu Kyi’s NLD and the military will eventually work out. While full results of the election were still coming in, Suu wrote to the leadership requesting talks on national reconciliation.

The US congratulated Myanmar on the election but noted that more work remains ahead on the country’s road to democracy. Myanmar has been racked with Buddhist-Rohangiya Muslim clashes past several months including during the election campaign since about a million Rohingya Muslims who are stateless are not permitted to vote. Myanmar effected effective implementation of Cease Fire Agreements with eight armed groups on  15 October 2015. Negotiations are continuing with other groups but the outcome is uncertain.

Foreign investments had flowed into Myanmar since sanctions were eased.  Following settlement of a maritime boundary dispute with Bangladesh in 2012, Myanmar reformed its FDI law and provided greater revenue incentives for international company investments in 2012.  It has since issued oil and gas exploration licenses for 20 blocks in the Rakhine Basin in 2014, where giant gas discovery was first made in 2002.

FDI stood at $8 billion in fiscal 2014/15, more than five times the flows recorded just two years earlier.  Myanmar lies along the right pincer of China’s strategic jaw reaching out to the Indian Ocean, which has led to China stepping up economic and defence relations with Myanmar. China has developed oil and gas pipelines connecting the Indian Ocean with mainland China and is developing ports on the Myanmar coast.

However, following America’s renewed interest in Myanmar, China has created a powerful proxy in the Shan State headquartered United State Wa Army (USWA) that controls the narcotics ‘golden triangle’ arming them with machine guns, armoured vehicles, shoulder fired air defence weapons and even missile fitted helicopters. USWA is China’s Sword of Damocles’ over Myanmar; a warning not to get too close to the US.

Myanmar is of strategic importance to India being on its eastern flank and as the gateway for connectivity to southeast and east Asia. Chinese intelligence in May this year established ULFWSEA (United Liberation Front of West, East and South Asia) on Myanmar soil, bringing together nine militant groups of northeast including the NSCN (K) and ULFA, to destabilize our northeast at Chinese will.

Given the record of China’s violent and aggressive rise, both internally and externally, it is unlikely that China will let peace prevail in Myanmar, but this is a reality that Myanmar must confront. Prime Minister Modi has already visited Myanmar. Stability of Myanmar and good relations are what India looks up to.