Indian Defence Review

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Just before the recent visit to India by Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, China made big noise about an Indian drone that crashed across the line of actual control in China occupied Tibet during first week December 2017.

According to the India Army (IA), the drone was on a regular training mission inside Indian Territory but lost contact with ground control due to a technical problem and crashed in Tibet. The IA immediately alerted its Chinese counterparts to find the drone and said, “The exact cause of the incident is under investigation.

The matter is being dealt with in accordance with the established protocols through institutional mechanisms to deal with situations along the India-China border.” But, Geng Shuang, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman stated, “The action of the Indian side violated China’s territory and is not conducive to peace and tranquility in the border area. China is dissatisfied with this and has lodged solemn representations with the Indian side”.

Xinhua quoted Zhang Shuili, deputy head of the China’s Western Theatre Command saying that India had infringed on China’s territorial sovereignty, adding, “We strongly express our opposition. China’s border forces acted professionally and responsibly.” The last bit about “acted professionally and responsibly” is tad queer because certainly a drone crash doesn’t evoke a violent response. On the other hand China orchestrating the “technical snag” cannot be ruled out considering China’s habit of creating an incident just before the visit of a political bigwig from either side.

India has been downplaying what is generally termed “transgressions” across the LAC by the Chinese, including from the air. During the Doklam standoff newspapers had reported Chinese helicopter ingress in Barahoti area of Uttrakhand but the government played it down. Similarly, China has continued indulging in transgressions on ground after the disengagement in Doklam area.

The Chinese hoopla about the Indian drone crash was despite knowing that the Israeli drones flown by India have considerable lateral surveillance capability and need not be sent across. Besides, satellite imagery picks up Chinese dug in close to Doklam with tanks and other combat paraphernalia.

Zhou Chenming, Beijing-based military commentator was more pragmatic saying drone flyovers by both sides on the border were normal and flying at that altitude close to the Indian drone’s ceiling “increased the chance of mechanical or electronic failure. It’s not surprising the drone crashed” since the area sees extremely low temperatures, strong winds and heavy snow at this time of year.

Zhou’s reference to ceiling and capability of drones held by India perhaps prompted our side to put in print a cutting-edge drone made by Noida-based start-up, NewSpace Research and Technologies, which is capable of flying 65,000 feet above Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh and remain in the air for three weeks at a time. In near-earth orbit, the drone, which doesn’t have a name as yet, will be able to monitor Chinese military movements in the city of Shigatse in Tibet, more than 200 km away round the clock. In the category of High Altitude Pseudo Satellite (HAPS), this private sector indigenous satellite is under validation by Boeing and its first flight is scheduled for 2019.

China had successfully tested its anti-satellite weapon in 2007. On November 26, 2017 the Chinese military successfully test fired a counter-drone laser; photos showed a truck-mounted laser downing a quadcopter drone, the invisible laser scorching the drone with a finger-width hole in its airframe. The laser, which appears to be 5-10kw system, has military applications.

Aside from military applications, terror groups like Islamic State and Hezbollah have been using drones with good effect, even strapping grenade-size explosives to commercially available off-the-shelf (COTS) consumer-grade drones for targeting opponents, soldiers and civilians. Incidentally, a hacker-quadcopter available off the shelf can be bought just for US$ 2,500 that can be turned into a malware injector. Commercial drones are small, quiet, and nimble. Most worryingly for air-defence troops, off-the-shelf drones are cheap. You can buy one on Amazon for a couple hundred dollars and rig up a bomb for a few dollars more.

The US-led coalition fighting in Iraq had 100 odd encounters with ISIS drones over a two-month period in early 2017, suffering casualties in the process. In October 2016, the US shot down an ISIS drone using “electronic warfare capabilities” as disclosed by USAF Secretary Deborah Lee.

India too has been working on lasers. The Laser Dazzler developed by the DRDO some years back impairs vision temporarily to control unruly crowds albeit whether it has been used by the police and central armed police forces (CAPF) is not known. In addition, DRDO’s Laser Science & Tech Centre (LASTEC) has been developing ADITYA; a vehicle mounted gas dynamic laser-based directed energy weapon (DEW) system as technology demonstrator. ADITYA is 25-kilowatt laser system capable of hitting a missile in terminal phase at a distance of 5-7 km.

The next step is to create solid state lasers which are very portable and can be fitted on various platforms. This is projected to be achieved by 2020, MoD’s ‘Technology Perspective & Capability Roadmap’ having identified DEWs and ASAT weapons as thrust areas over 15 years span. DRDO conducted a successful test of a laser system mounted on a truck in August 2017, laser beam hitting the target at 250m. The next step is to test a 2kw laser mounted on the truck against a metal sheet located 1km away. This will be followed by developing 5kw and 9kw laser systems.

Private companies like Kalyani Group and Rolls-Royce too are keen to develop / collaborate in building DEWs with Kalyani Centre for Technology and Innovation already in initial stages of developing DEWs.

But what should be of great concern to policy makers is the concept of ‘swarm drones’ catching favour in China coupled with the China’s massive drone production capacity. The competition to demonstrate multiple simultaneous operations of drones has been on between the US and China for some time. In October 2016, the US military in California saw the release of 103 Perdix drones (each with a wingspan of just under 30 cm) under the command of a single operator following them on a tactical screen; orders of the operator interpreted and obeyed by all drones sharing a distributed ‘brain’ for decision making and adapting to the circumstances. China has graduated from simultaneously operating 100 drones by a single operator in 2015 to 500 in 2016 and then setting up a Guinness record on January 15, 2017 by simultaneously operating 1000 quadcopters together during the lantern festival in Guangzhou marking the end of the Chinese New Year.

The 1,000 Ehang Ghost Drones 2.0 display was 120m high, 280m long and 180m wide with each drone maintaining distance of 1.5m from its neighbor. The sight was enthralling to see the least but visualize these as military drones attacking a target and you can appreciate the combat implications. The US Navy’s LOCUST wants to field a swarm of attack drones that would cost collectively less than a single missile. DARPA is working on its swarming Gremlins and the US Air Force is working on developing miniature drones that can overwhelm air defences.

The USAF unmanned aircraft division head told the media, “You have may be 100 or 1,000 surface-to-air missiles but we’re going to hit you with 10,000 small drones”. The drone swarm advantage lies in numbers; swarm can take on casualties and failures and just keep going to overwhelm defenders by attacking with more drones than they can handle.

Despite the debate in China on hi-tech weapon platforms versus drones, it may be safely assumed that China will continue to develop and expand its range of ‘Assassins Mace Weapons’ simultaneous to swarm drones to optimize its hybrid warfare capacity. Significantly since 2016 Pentagon has spent some $200 million on urgent counter-drone systems, in addition to major weapons systems with drone-killing capabilities like missiles, guns, laser mounted ground vehicles, ships, combat aircraft fitted with sophisticated radio jammers. The US military is also concerned about China hunting US swarm drones with laser weapons.

Russia’s new ‘microwave cannon’ can kill warheads and drones with ease at distances of 9.6 km; equipped with a high-power relativistic generator and reflector antenna, management and control system, which when mounted on a special platform is capable of ensuring perimeter defense at 360 degrees. In October this year, Russian army announced establishment of a ground-based unit specializing in defeating enemy drones.

The unit, first of its kind in Russia operates electronic jamming systems that can sever the radio connections between unmanned aerial vehicles and their operators. Russian-made jammers reportedly have been successful in forcing down drones in Syria. The jammer can disrupt an enemy’s own signals, potentially preventing ground-based controllers from steering their drones via satellite.

There are many theories about the best way to deal with the drone threat. Experiments are being done in jamming technologies to block communications from the operator to the drone, anti-drone rockets, guns and now lasers. In August 2015, Boeing unveiled its Compact Laser Weapon System that looks like a large camera that swivels around on a tripod, the laser system burns a hole in the drone without any explosion or visible beam. Instead of a big truck mounted weapon system, it is a small system fitting into four suitcase-sized boxes and can be set up by two men in just a few minutes.

Lockheed Martin has also developed Counter-UAS system named ICARUS™ that can identify and intercept commercially available drones. Law enforcement agencies in the US are armed with the DroneDefender Rifle that uses radio pulses to disable a hostile drone within a 400m radius. The DroneDefender also can prevent detonation and other remote functions. This tactical cyber rifle further provides a glimpse of the future of high-tech warfare. Indian law enforcing forces are yet to be equipped with such weapons.

At the higher level, India has been developing the ‘KALI’ (Kilo Ampere Linear Injector) linear electron accelerator for some time, which China believes will lead to a high-powered microwave weapon. India had also identified development of ASAT weapons for electronic or physical destruction of satellites in both low earth orbit (2,000km above earth’s surface) and the higher geosynchronous orbit in the long-term integrated perspective plan (2012-2027). DRDO is working on 6,000 sq km radius systems in respect of exo-atmospheric kill vehicles.

Our policy makers need to focus on the enlarging drone threat seriously both at the borders, in conflict situations, and for targets in the hinterland. The threat becomes even more severe for homeland security considering that the China-Pakistan duo has no compunction in using terrorist organizations to destabilize India. Use of drones by terrorists is very much on the cards.

Counter drone measures need to be put in place speedily in consideration of the mounting threats, massive Chinese capabilities and PLA’s penchant for non contact warfare. The challenge will be faster capacity building, large-scale production and putting measures in place based on comprehensive threat assessment. It would also be prudent to simultaneously develop intense laser system, indigenously, through joint ventures and through leveraging our strategic partnerships as this is one area that can contribute to removing asymmetry vis-a-vis China.

DEWs when mounted on satellites are difficult to detect unless actually fired. Chinese military strategy of shock deception and surprise coupled with its record of ambiguity and deceit lends itself to space weaponization. We need to be prepared for every eventuality.