Indian Defence Review

Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe is to visit India in the near future, having accepted invite from Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman although no firm date for the visit has been finalized. His visit reportedly will be reciprocated by Sitharaman visiting China. Prior to Wei’s visit, India is scheduled to hold trilateral maritime dialogue with Russia and China, in background of China consolidating its bases in Gwadar and Hambantota, more planned in Jiwani (Pakistan), Gadhoo and Makhunudhee (Maldives), and a strategic support base in Seychelles, in addition to investing in port facilities in Bangladesh and Myanmar. China is also doing its utmost to draw India’s neighbouring countries into its own orbit, weaning them away from India.

On August 1, Wei Fenghe announced China intends to follow the path of peaceful development and further stick to the defence policy which is entirely defensive in nature, saying, “China intends to carry high the banner of peace, development, cooperation and mutual benefits, relentlessly follow the peaceful path of development, firmly stick to the defensive nature of its national defense policy, jointly with other countries build cooperation within the framework of the ‘One Belt, One Road’ initiative, and facilitate the building of a new type of international relations.” Ironically, these lullabies of peace homilies sung by Chinese officials have become stale in the backdrop of China’s policy of ambiguity, shock and deceit; followed against India, South China Sea and elsewhere. Illegal territorial claims by China in some 23 countries while it shares borders with only 14, indicates the unending greed of China. The common cliché with reference to China doing the rounds is: “It is easy to understand China; what they publicly say they never do, and what they intend doing they never say”.

Immediately post the disengagement from the 73-day standoff at Doklam in 2017, China commenced establishing brigade-sized forces there, even as India maintains it is status quo, which really refers to point of standoff contact, not Doklam Plateau per se. Satellite imagery appearing in media on January 17, 2018 itself showed PLA deployment close to last year’s face off that had not thinned down. Google Earth imagery showed concrete posts, seven helipads of 25m diameter, several dozen armoured vehicles, one-two mechanized regiments, two regiment worth tank-transporters; 100 plus B-vehicles; two- storey high observation tower less than 10m from forward Indian Army trench that can observe our troop movement beyond Kupup; large number of fighting posts on almost every hillock on North Doklam plateau, consisting of double-layered communication trenches prepared for all round defence; new roads to cover the North Doklam plateau, with communication trenches running along them; four large bulldozers and four tippers indicating intention of pursuing road construction beyond the contested point.

As recently as July 25, 2018, Ann Wagner, US Representative for Missouri’s 2nd Congressional District, referring to the India-China standoff at Doklam, told the US Congressional Foreign Affairs Subcommittee, “Although both countries backed down, China has quietly resumed its activities in Doklam”, adding, “Neither Bhutan nor India had sought to dissuade it and China’s activities in the Himalayas were reminiscent of its fait accompli in South China Sea”. Possibly, at the BRICS summit that Prime Minister Narendra Modi attended in China immediately post Doklam standoff the and later at the Wuhan summit, President Xi Jinping may have signaled Modi to simply ‘lay off’, Doklam not being Indian Territory or face activation of the India-China line of actual control (LAC) in run up to the 2019 general elections in India. Going by the expressions of the two leaders at the Wuhan summit, Xi would have conveyed it in most subtle fashion from behind his benign mask, knowing full well both defence and border infrastructure have been willfully neglected by India.

During the Wuhan summit between PM Modi and President Xi in April 2018, both leaders reportedly agreed to  respect each other’s sensitivities, concerns and aspirations, and maintaining  peace and tranquility along the Line of Control (LAC). But during the very next month (May 2018) PLA made 30 transgressions into Indian Territory as reported in media – unusually high number for single month. In June, reports emerged of Indian soldiers forming human chain to block 50 Chinese troops transgressed two km deep in Sikkim near Naku. The report quoting an official said, “After the four-hour-long persuasion failed, nearly 100 Indian soldiers formed a human chain to block the movement of the Chinese troops. A heated argument took place and the situation was later brought under control after a banner drill and the PLA troops finally marched back to their territory.” MEA denies the incident, obviously fearing politicization but but other sources confirm the incident very much happened in the manner described. Media also reports on August 12, 2018, PLA in civvies pitched five tents in Demchok area of Ladakh; around 300m inside Indian Territory in first week July.  Government says issue is resolved, but media citing sources say the tents and  standoff continues despite Brigade-level meeting between Indian Army and PLA, though Chinese are not allowed to move forward.

Above shows the true face of Chinese intentions. PLA is otherwise going full hog to display pretenses of camaraderie. A ceremonial Border Personnel Meeting (BPM) was held recently on occasion of China’s PLA Day at Chinese BPM hut of Chushul-Moldo meeting point in Eastern Ladakh. Ceremonial address by both delegation leaders included exchange of greetings and vote of thanks reflecting mutual desire for improving relations at functional-level at the border. This was followed by a cultural program showcasing Chinese culture and traditional dances. The issue of India-China military hotline has been hanging fire because of language-interpreter issue. But now China has given a new twist by saying hotline from Chinese Western Theatre Commander should not be connected to India’s Eastern Army Commander, but instead with India’s DGMO. 

It is in backdrop of above developments that Wei will be visiting India, even though there are plans to expand India-China joint military drills and the next hand-in-hand will likely be held towards the end of this year. Xi Jinping stated in June 2018 that China will not give up ‘even an inch’ of territory it considers its own; which obviously includes Chinese illegal claims on Indian Territory, including entire Arunachal Pradesh. Premier Le Keqiang recently said Tibet is inseparable part of China’s ‘sacred’ territory. China terms Arunachal Pradesh as ‘South Tibet’, and Chinese Foreign Ministry stated in January this year that China has never considered Arunachal Pradesh part of India. It is food for thought that Xi Jinping who has no compunction in putting two million Uighurs of Xinjiang in concentration camps (whitewashed as ‘political camps’) and is destroying churches and mosques left, right and centre, will show restraint in acting to realize China’s illegal claims on Indian Territory.

It has been amply reiterated in media that the NDA II government has brought the state of defence preparedness to the levels of 1962 and has done precious little to improve border infrastructure particularly in Arunachal Pradesh. Ironically successive parliamentary committee reports criticizing defence preparedness, including the latest  released on July 25 by Parliamentary Estimates Committee’s report on ‘Preparedness of Armed Forces: Defence Production and Procurement’, have been simply dumped by the government.  The Chinese Defence Minister may be coming to assess for himself the level of our defence preparedness before Beijing’s next move. This should be a time for extreme caution.