Indian Defence Review

Come July 26, India will celebrate Op ‘Vijay’ Diwas; another anniversary synonymous with the date of culmination of the Kargil Conflict during 1999. There will be wreath laying at Amar Jawan Jyoti at India Gate, and much bigger ceremony to pay homage at the Kargil War Memorial at Dras in J&K in presence next of kin of martyrs of Kargil Conflict and representatives of units that had taken part in the operations. In the run up to Op ‘Vijay’ Diwas, there are articles on operations during Kargil Conflict, write ups and features on social media features on martyrs and gallantry award winners. There is also an interesting article titled The ‘Lost’ Operation Against Pakistan in Chorbat La by then Brigadier (later Lt Gen HS Panag); of an excellent operation in aftermath of Op ‘Vijay’ that was not recognized – but so did some deserving cases in vicinity of Turtok Sector under the Siachen Brigade not get recognized because on 26 July 1999 Op ‘Vijay’ had officially culminated.

But more important is to look back and examine what lessons did we learn, if at all, and to what extent have they been addressed; because that is the best way to pay homage to those who sacrificed their lives for the nation. There is no denying Kargil intrusions were at such massive scale that Pakistan had made ingress over weeks. Yet, there was complete intelligence failure. In fact, had the Pakistanis not ambushed and captured the patrol led by Captain Saurabh Kalia, the surprise would have prolonged much longer – maybe closer to winters, and had both road axes closed with snow, India’s response would have stretched over many months, causing much embarrassment. Had our intelligence been active, many of the 530 lives lost could have probably been saved. Where are we today in terms of intelligence-surveillance means? Yes, UAV’s are available in some sectors but do we have round the clock surveillance astride the LoC and LAC like China has? The answer is no. Even the MAVs are yet to be introduced into the Army. What about trans-border intelligence? Are we still dependent on a strategic partner to give us precise coordinates for ‘surgical strike’? If not, why are we not punishing Pakistan like Israelis do?

Why don’t we understand that covert operations, as well as intelligence operations are not to be publicized? Do Pakistan, US, Russia, Israel, UK publicize operations by ISI, CIA, KGB, Mossad and Mi-6 respectively? During the Kargil Conflict, telephone conversation between General Musharraf and his Chief of General Staff were intercepted while Musharraf was on a visit to China. This conversation was made public, thereby losing the source from which it was obtained. Videos of surgical strikes which have heavy elements of intelligence were made public and now an Afghan national who was ISIS agent and under surveillance by our intelligence agencies for 18 months and then arrested has been made public. All these actions for gaining political mileage violate the unwritten code of intelligence operations and special operations that are not to be made public. This is never done, as such publicity give away capability, technical prowess, and modus operandi, all of which are dangerous for conduct of similar operations in future. Appears that our intelligence agencies are shying away from giving the right advice to the political authority; preferring to kowtow and make own brownie points.

After the Kargil Conflict, intelligence got an excellent boost with establishment of Army’s Technical Support Division (TSD) but this was disbanded because of politicians fearing their skeletons woud be exposed. Unfortunately, the advantages of TSD were never projected by successive Service Chiefs. Why would MoD bureaucrats brief NDA II what extraordinary work the TSD had done. For example, in addition to excellent trans-border intelligence across the LoC, it was because of pre-emptive TSD action that IB could trace five sims used by Ajmal Kasab and gang from about a crore sims during the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks, and blocking a Chinese consignment of weapons to the NSCN-IM, which later found their way to Maoists in Chhattisgarh after the TSD was disbanded; same weapons were perhaps used by Maoists  on the Congress convoy in Chhattisgarh during the last election campaign which wiped out the complete congress leadership there. Of course a particular Joint Secretary in MoD with his NSCN-IM connections was central to disbanding the TSD.

Chinese intrusion in Tuting area in December last year was discovered by chance by a hunter, where China had already constructed a 1.25 km jeepable road on our side of the LAC under three feet of snow. So how are we different from 1999, where a local Ladakhi happened to observe Pakistani intrusions in a particular area? In sharp contrast to China, we have also not fully grasped the importance of locals in the border areas. Bishing village, closest to the Tuting intrusion area does not have a motorable road because of the “norm” of not providing roads for villages less than 100 population under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojna (PMGSY) and since we bother little about border infrastructure, it was this hunter who having seen the Chinese road building activity alerted the ITBP, who in turn informed the Army. Significantly, the Army took 19 hours to reach the intrusion area.

In the above context Lobsang Sangay, Tibetan Prime Minister-in-exile has cautioned India against China’s deceptive policies, warning that what happened to Tibet could happen to India as well, adding, “The Doklam stand-off and the repeated cross-border incursion of Chinese soldiers into Indian territories is a sign of China’s expansionist mindset.” What Lobsang says is even more significant with Geng Shuang, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman stating on January 3, 2018 that China “never acknowledged” the existence of Arunachal Pradesh. Shortcomings in our defence preparedness including border infrastructure need to be plugged especially in the wake of the growing asymmetry vis-à-vis China. Though Arunachal Pradesh has small population and consequently small vote-bank, had Prime Minister Modi tasked Union Minister Nitin Gadkari also with development of border infrastructure, perhaps the change would have been miraculous in the last four years. The government can either speedily improve the border infrastructure or continue as before; playing down intrusions / transgression as prelude to the looming strategic setback with loss of more territory. Bureaucratic advice is always available that China will undertake no such action due economic reasons especially after Wuhan, but that would be akin to playing Blind Man’s Buff.

In July 2013, BJP’s Murli Manohar Joshi had charged that that the defence forces were not getting their due in terms of latest weapons and rations, but ironically under NDA II, defence allocations continue to be the lowest since 1962. The Kargil Committee gave recommendations ranging from strategic reorganization of intelligence, reducing Army’s commitment in counter-insurgency commitments, establishment of a Chief of Defence Staff (CDS), improving operating procedures and inter-services cooperation, right down to tactical elements like equipment acquisition, including a lighter rifle that enables soldiers to fight in ultra-high altitudes. However, the politico-bureaucratic nexus has not permitted much of what was required. Forget CDS, even the reorganization of MoD has been shied away from, under the supposition that economic rise means defence forces are redundant and police forces can suffice – akin to the Nehru concept.

Finally, our political hierarchy must understand that: the China-Pakistan nexus is getting stronger by the day; Pakistan is strategically much more important to China vis-à-vis India; objectives of China and Pakistan coalesce with respect to India – and the noose around India is tightening; economy and soft power are not effective unless backed by hard power; having consolidated in SCS, China is focused on IOR, and; Xi Jinping has stated he will not lose an inch of territory – which includes China’s illegal claims. Finally, we need to remember what Zbiginew Brezinsky wrote in his book ‘The Grand Chess  Board, wherein he said, “China and India are destined by Geography to be Rivals. With venerable culture and vast population, are likely to compete with each other for resources and influence”. This is a fact we must not ignore.