Indian Defence Review

Pic Source: https://www.fmprc.gov.cn

On August 6, Dai Bing, charge d’affaires of China’s permanent mission to the United Nations called on the international community to carry forward the Afghan peace process by preventing all-out war, advancing peace and reconciliation, and fighting terrorism. He said, “We hope that negotiating parties can show flexibility, seek common ground while managing differences, and chart out a roadmap and timetable for reconciliation as soon as possible. We look forward to the rebirth of Afghanistan and the establishment of a broad and inclusive political structure in pursuit of a moderate and steady Muslim policy, with a commitment to friendly relations with all neighboring countries.”

Bing said China is ready to lead both internal dialogue in Afghanistan and negotiations with external stakeholders to facilitate the peace and reconciliation process in Afghanistan, stressing the importance of preventing “terrorist forces” from gaining strength. Beijing’s main spokesman in Islamabad, Prime Minister Imran Khan, told a TV channel on July 28 the Taliban are not some military outfits but normal civilians. For China, the only terrorists are the Uyghur and the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) now renamed Turkestan Islamic Movement (TIP).  It is an established fact that China and Pakistan have supported and armed Taliban past two decades plus.

What Bing wanted to convey to the UN and the world  perhaps was the  following: the West is fleeing Afghanistan; Moscow is aligned with Beijing; other CSTO member countries can be managed, and; China has arrived on the scene as the main “resolvers” of the conflict in Afghanistan.

Presiding over the 4th China-Afghanistan-Pakistan Trilateral Foreign Ministers’ Dialogue in Guiyang, China on June 3, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi put forward certain proposals, gist of which is as under:

• Adhering to ‘Afghan-led, Afghan-owned’ principle – Afghanistan should build an inclusive political structure pursuing moderate Muslim policy and continue to firmly combat terrorism.
• Maintain momentum of intra-Afghan talks. China is willing to hold an intra-Afghan dialogue at appropriate time.
• Bring Taliban back into the political mainstream. China hopes Afghan government will put forward a more attractive plan for peace talks to encourage the Taliban to abandon past differences.
• China-Afghanistan-Pakistan should work together to push for the orderly withdrawal of US troops and fulfillment of due obligations. Afghanistan should strengthen communication and cooperation with its friendly neighboring countries.
• Going forward from the China-hosted ‘China + Central Asia (C+C5) Foreign Ministers’ Meet, China will support SCO playing a bigger role for reconciliation in Afghanistan.
• Need to strengthen “sincere” cooperation among China-Afghanistan-Pakistan. China hopes Afghan side will take a positive view of Pakistan’s sincerity and contributions.

Wang Yi’s above discourse was typical of China’s slimy diplomacy. While supporting Taliban to the hilt, the talk of moderate Muslim policy is a laugh, considering that  Taliban have regularly been killing Shia Muslims, non-Muslims and minorities. Taliban have consistently demonstrated they only interested to rule Afghanistan  through gun power, not by contesting elections. Getting into the political mainstream has no other meaning for them.

Yi did not elaborate on what “more attractive plan” he wants the Afghan government to offer to the Taliban. Presumably he wants power to be handed over on a plate. Similarly, Yi’s demand that Afghanistan should take “positive view” of Pakistan’s “sincerity” and “contributions” can best be described as sic given the miseries Afghan population has been suffering past decades on account of Pakistan.

On July 28, Wang Yi met the Afghan Taliban delegation led by Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar in Tianjin, China. Heads of the Taliban’s religious council and publicity committee were also part of the delegation. Yi stated that the Afghan Taliban is an “important military and political force” that is expected to play an important role in the country’s peace, reconciliation and reconstruction. Yi said all factions and ethnic groups in Afghanistan should unite pushing for early substantive results to establish a broad and inclusive political structure. He stressed that combating ETIM is a common responsibility of the international community and hoped Afghan Taliban will make a clean break with all terrorist organizations including the ETIM.

According to Chinese media, Baradar responded by saying China has always been reliable friend of Afghan people and commended China’s just and positive role in Afghanistan’s peace and reconciliation process. He further said Taliban believe Afghanistan should develop friendly relations with neighboring countries and the international community and hoped that China will be more involved in Afghanistan’s peace and reconciliation process and play a bigger role in future reconstruction and economic development. Baradar said Afghan Taliban will make efforts toward fostering an enabling investment environment.

It is interesting to note that in contrast to Imran Khan publicly describing Afghan Taliban as normal civilians, not a military force, Wang Yi has said Afghan Taliban is an important military and political force. Considering the arms supplied to Taliban (shoulder fired AD missiles included) and support including advisors fight US-NATO, Yi could have referred to Afghan Taliban a military ally. However, this much can be said with certainty that should the Afghan Taliban gain control of Kabul, China will be the first to recognize their regime, as would Pakistan.

Following recognition of a possible Taliban regime in Kabul at a future date, China could ink formal military pact with them. China is showing no unease with possibility of an Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan under the Taliban on its borders, which indicates that an understanding with Afghan Taliban is possibly already reached. China is the major arms supplier to the United Wa State Army (USWA) that has five ‘divisions’ deployed along the Thai-Myanmar border and controls the narcotics trade straddling the ‘Golden Triangle’. A pact with Afghan Taliban controlling the ‘Golden Crescent’ drug trade will give China added ammunition to fuel its hybrid war worldwide.  

There has been speculation that with the ETIM ensconced in Afghanistan, the Afghan Taliban could use them as leverage against China. But that is unlikely to happen. The Taliban have already conveyed such assurance to China on earlier occasion, as also stating they welcome China’s assistance in the reconstruction of Afghanistan, which naturally would include China’s proposed BRI through Afghanistan to Central Asia.

The remarkable part of China’s twisted diplomacy is that despite its genocide against a million Uyghur in Xinjiang, no Muslim country including Pakistan, Suadi Arabia and other Gulf nations have criticized China, leave aside threatening reprisals against Chinese nationals elsewhere. This apart, the ease with which China cultivates radical and terrorist states and organization (less the ETIM) is extraordinary notwithstanding the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) having matching traits.

With the rapidly deteriorating situation in Afghanistan, the US has sent B-52 bombers to Afghanistan. But if aerial bombings were the answer against terrorist organizations, the ISIS, Al Qaeda and other similar outfits would have been wiped out years back. More US airstrikes will kill some Taliban cadre (already beefed up to some 70,000 strong courtesy Pakistan) but also cause collateral damage and civilian casualties. Finally, with exit of US troops, America has the chance to wage a proxy war in Afghanistan but how it will be able to match the China-Pakistan-Taliban nexus only time will show.