Indian Defence Review

The growing stability in the region may weaken the international counter-terrorism cooperation and focus. Fundamentalists and terrorists may find it convenient to grow and expand their tentacles in these uncertain conditions.

Given the geopolitical circumstances, the West can hope that it will be able to strangulate the economy of Libya in a quick time frame, thereby forcing the people especially in the West to abandon Gaddafi. Hydrocarbon exports are the very lifeline of Libya. It constitutes 95 percent of the total exports. Half the GDP of Libya is from revenues from oil and gas. The country has very little agricultural base and is almost entirely dependent on imports for food to feed its people. The denial of hydrocarbon exports can therefore cause the collapse of the regime.

Moreover, 83 percent of the population resides in urban areas, who may not be able to sustain hardships for very long.

If at all, Libya were to emerge out of this crisis with Gaddafi remaining at the helm, the fate of the Libyans and the stability of the region will be on the whims of the unpredictable Gaddafi. It is too much of a risk. His ouster, possibly a dignified one must be ensured.

Gaddafi’s rule has been progressive in many ways with some sterling positives. He, to a large extent, purged the Libyan society of gender bias. He established two military academies for women. He marginalized the Mullahs and gave injunctions that only the educated will lead the Friday prayers. On the balance, he is as good or bad as most of the world’s leaders. He, therefore, does deserve a dignified exit. If that is not ensured, there is every chance that another functional state will be reduced to anarchy, especially in the backdrop of the fact that the entire region is in turmoil.

Following the exit of Mubarak in Egypt, the news in that country is not encouraging. The referendum process has been boycotted by the youth, who spearheaded the revolution and who matter the most in the transition process.

We Indians have no business to expect the Indian template of democracy to be applicable anywhere and everywhere. Some of us, who exult over the developments in that region, must ponder that the same paradigm may visit us through Kashmir in the near future.