Indian Defence Review

Today, Libya is one of the world’s 10 richest oil producing countries and of course Africa’s richest.

Libya holds the largest proven reserves in Africa followed by Nigeria and Algeria. 80 percent of the reserves are located in the Sirte basin. This basin constitutes the heart of Libya running from the approximately the center of the country to the coastline in the north. It also extends towards the west for some distance and to the east, falling short of the border with Egypt. As per estimate, only 25 percent of the Libyan oil has been explode mainly due to sanctions, which was effective for at least two decades. The UN and the US lifted sanctions in 2003 and 2004 respectively.

If the Cold War was the impetus for the coup by Gaddafi, this time, Libya is engulfed by a different kind of revolutionary wave, which many consider as being inspired and abetted by the West. It appears regime changes are being sought for an orderly transfer of power in the Arab world, because most of the dispensations have outlived their age and utility. Most of these ruling dispensations turned into family businesses and so has Libya under Gaddafi and his eight sons. Only a popular swell on the ground, engineered or otherwise can uproot them. Given the wherewithal and monopoly over instrument of war and violence of the rulers, it is impossible to bring regime changes without external support.

The entire script is being calibrated with Egypt serving as the epicenter. But in case of Libya, the calculations have been upset because of Gaddafi and his psychopathic ways. He has been using the safety and security of his own people as a bargaining chip in dealing with the rest of the western world. He and his sons are displaying acute paranoia and therefore the ruthlessness in dealing with the situation. The ruling dispensation in Libya therefore can be very unpredictable and dangerous.

Gaddafi – The Terrorist

The unpredictable and impulsive quotient in Gaddafi’s personality is well known. He has flirted with terrorism. In the 70s, Gaddafi extended financial and training assistance to Arab volunteers for the Palestinian terrorist groups. To establish Arab supremacy, he created a mercenary group i.e. the Islamic legion. In 1973, the Irish naval service had intercepted the vessel ‘Claudia’ in the Irish waters, carrying Soviet arms from Libya to the provisional Irish Republican Army (IRA). He was a great friend, admirer and support of Idi Amin. In fact 600 Libyan soldiers had died defending the dawn fall of Idi Amin. When Anwar Saddat, the President of Egypt was murdered in 1981, Gaddafi applauded it publically.

It is pertinent to note that most of Libyas oil exports are to the European countries. Importantly, the oil sold by Libya to Europe is lighter and sweeter, which implies that it has low sulphur grades.

Gaddafi at one time was desperate to acquire nuclear weapon capability. Libya was most effusive in supporting Paksitan’s nuclear weapons programme. Gaddafi renounced Libya’s nuclear weapon programme in 2003. Some western sources believe that Libya still has a deadly stockpile of ‘Mustard Gas’.

Gaddafi – The Darling of the West

The exigencies and greed for power has seen Gaddafi sway between socialism and capitalism from anti-Americanism to pro-Americanism. Libya till late 2003-04 was treated a terrorist and pariah state by the West, after the bombing of the Pan Am aircraft in 1988 over the Scottish town of Lockerbie. Unnerved by the US invasion of Iraq and the consequent fate of Saddam Hussain and the rising discontent due to sluggish economy caused by sanctions, Gaddafi was compelled to make a complete ‘U’ turn. He began to placate the West by taking formal responsibility of the Pan Am bombing in 2003. Following this, the rehabilitation of Gaddafi in the international community was most dramatic especially after the payment of compensation to US victims of the Pan Am bombing in 2008 by Libya.

Following the emergence of this new relationship between the West and Gaddafi, the major oil companies were once again active in Libya. They stepped up oil exploration, using Enhanced Oil Recovery Techniques. Libya had proposed to increase its oil production by 40 percent i.e. from 1.8 million barrels/day to three million barrels/day by 2013.