Indian Defence Review

Experts worldwide now see the threat of a Third World War looming on the horizon. Empirical evidence in support of such claims is – 1) massive defense spending across nations, 2) hot wars in Middle-East & Eastern Europe & 3) intense diplomacy building around block politics. According to Foreign Minister S Jaishankar – “the next five years (may be longer), is going to be very difficult in the world, what we are seeing now is like a trailer, real movie is still going to come….at the end of the day foreign policy achievements will depend on how we have built capabilities at home”. The most important evidence in this regard is the springing Cold-War between the two great powers within the international system – US and China – who are now engaged in intense negotiations about the future of the in-vogue World Order and who no longer keep their respective visions cloaked in secrecy. A noose is tightening around China which according to the US National Security Strategy (2017) “…. (PRC) is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military and technological power to do it … In the competition with the PRC, as in other arenas, it is clear that the next 10 years will be the decisive decade.” From a Chinese perspective, the US has initiated an all-round strategic competition with China based on a serious distorted perception of China by initiating – 1) De-risking/coupling, 2) geo-politics, 3) reactivating the US-style “militarist system” domestically, and 4) promote the so-called ideology-based and values-based diplomacy (Ni Feng (2024)[1].

Recent engagements between the US & China have progressed at the cost of time and on China’s term where repeated requests for communication between the intelligence community and military on part of the US was consciously kept on hold for a period of time by China. Talks between the two resumed which according to China was on repeated request from the US and differed in their respective agenda’s – the US wanted a security dialogue, while China was concerned about an economic dialogue. The US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s recent visit to China in April was unlike his previous visits and carried a stern warning for China to refrain from its military support to Russia in its war efforts against Ukraine. Blinken’s visit was pre-secured by the US decision to provide substantial military aid to Israel, Ukraine and China’s core interest – Taiwan. China’s diplomatic treatment extended to Blinken said it all – China is prepared to proceed along a collision path with the US – an approach that risks war. While the US desperately wants to split-up Sino-Russian strategic partnership, China wants Europe to step outside the US global agenda and practice strategic autonomy.

China has come a long way in pursuit of its security& vision guided by Xi’s thought, and permanently shifted away from its previous positions – hiding its strength & never seeking leadership, peaceful rise, peaceful co-existence – to “national rejuvenation” – anambitious national project to be completed by 01 Oct, 2049. China’s behavior has been audacious in denting the foundations of a ‘rule-based order’ not it terms of who created it but why it was created. A rule-based international order is a necessary condition given the anarchic nature of the international system, and more than anyone China has stood benefitted from it in last four decades of its opening up and reforms and especially since its membership in the World Trade Organization (WTO) since 2001. China’s quagmire arises from its false interpretation of its national historical experience of shame, victimhood & humiliation at the hands of foreign powers and therefore adherence to a political culture which fears an international order not created by it. Although, China has so far remained successful in dissuading any probe into the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic which shook the foundations of globalization, it is very clear that it followed the initiation of a trade war under Trump administration. Likewise, both – the war in Ukraine & Gaza – followed Putin and Assad’s visit to Beijing. On 02 January, The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has claimed it discovered a “massive” cache of Chinese-made weapons being used by Hamas militants in Gaza[2].

China is operating along with a group of nations – axis of evil – in a coordinated effort to maximize its chances on negotiations with the West with respect to world order – the objective being an exclusive share of global geo-political space stretching from Western Pacific to Eurasia, this includes Cuba. This phenomenon is also due to neo-isolationist policy of the US which is withdrawing from global governance institutions with the aim to create a new United Nations open to democracies with human rights as its core value.Upon being inaugurated as the President of the US, Biden’s first task was the hosting of – Summit for Democracies (Dec, 2021), which as an idea first originated in Europe – Alliance of Democracies (2017). The concepts deeply intertwined with the alliance of democracies are – rule of law, human rights, free trade & market. China and its team on the other hand value – sovereignty, non-intervention, nationalism etc. An intense trade-war has already begun between the two camps with a huge deficitnot just in trade but also mutual-trust at the strategic level and will intensify in coming weeks if not months triggering response in other domains. Antony Blinken’s stern warning to China to reconsider its support to Russian war efforts in Ukraine is backed up with more economic sanctions which will be unbearable to Chinese economy which is hardly growing and if not addressed will cause social unrest and threat to the CCP. As a result, China is ready to respond via its proxies – unrestricted warfare, and most of its partners are nuclear armed – Russia, North Korea, Pakistan.

Yet another aspect of this unfolding intense competition is the centrality of critical and emerging “technology” and “nuclear weapons”. According to Blinken, “the revolutions in technology is at the heart of geopolitical competition with our rivals” (RSA Conference; May, 2024). Technological developments – micro-electronics, advanced computing, quantum technologies, bio-technologies, AI, information technology, semiconductors etc.- are revolutionary and impact the very way of modern life, however the political thought has not yet adapted to this revolution in science. The understanding of an international system made up of independent sovereign nations with absolute jurisdiction over their respective territories stands outdated in the new era and requires a re-thinking in the manner we conduct international politics.

A related aspect – nuclear weapons – is important since it guarantees the sovereigns survival within the system and has come to be a major hindrance in adapting the political to the scientific revolution. Initiatives such as Summit for Democracy & Alliance of Democracy in theory are frameworks that step outside the traditional domain of “territorial sovereignty’ and this is unacceptable to some major powers who still insist on sovereignty as the basic foundation of the international system. Moving away from sovereignty and bringing in the idea of “human rights” will be the hallmark of the world order in the 21^st century. Territorial sovereignty which came about after the Peace of Westphalia and which was used as a template to order inter-state relations is no longer serving its purpose given the man-kinds understanding of the quantum world. In the coming new world order, the new superpower or the hegemon will not be a sovereign, but algorithms. The fight for the new world order will be over whose algorithm and for what political and economic objectives.