Indian Defence Review

Two happenings of past three weeks, though unrelated have great perceptual relevance concerning Indo-Soviet relations as they stand today. On 18 Sep the Pakistan Army sponsored jihadis stuck the URI base camp of the Indian Army in which 19 Indian army soldiers got martyred. In retaliation India launched a surgical strike in POK at eight launch pads killing 9 Pakistani soldiers and approximately 50 jihadis on 29 Sep.

When all this was happening between the two sworn enemies, India’s staunchest friend Russia was coolly conducting its first ever Druzhba-2016 military exercise with Pakistani Army. The contrast could not be starker. Looked like Moscow was purposely embarrassing India. Lot of telephone jingling has reportedly taken place now between Indian foreign secretary Jaishankar and his Russian counterpart as also public statement by Indian envoy to Moscow Pankaj Saran, for the Annual Summit between Moscow and India in Goa being held on 15 Oct.

Reports suggest summit will be held smoothly and the Russians have come back on track. Nevertheless some damage has been done to Indo-Soviet relations this fact cannot be denied.

Let there be no doubt that India is conscious of its durable relations with Moscow and has gone to great lengths to protect the special quality of this relationship. It should not be forgotten that despite lot of pressure India refused to criticise Russian invasion of Crimea or its actions in Ukraine. Even on Syria India is more closely to the stand of Russia than America. Some critics may say that Russian proximity to Pakistan is growing because India is cosying up to America but then this thought needs a second look.

After the end of the cold war the way Russia and US had deepened their relationship it just cannot be compared with Indo-US relationship. Later on It was the NATO under the leadership of US which started pushing its borders to Ukraine that forced Russia to go into Crimea and Ukraine. After that US –Soviet relations have been on free fall mode. The sufferer had been India.

Another factor which has come in the way is the fact that while today India has developed into a trillion dollar economy with money to boot in its kitty, the private business in India has shunned Russia. The success story with Russia in business is the Indian public sector in the Railways and energy fields. Indian students and tourists do not go to Russia. This field is now dominated by China. The basic business with Russia of India has been purchase of arms and technologies by India. A defence buyer and supplier relationship is prominent in the context of Indo-Soviet relations. In this field also now Russia has cosyed up to China. Russia is making available to china its latest arms technologies. The current Chinese fighter JF-17 Thunder engine is of Russian origin.

Similarly in other fields also cutting edge technology is being offered by Russia to China. China is not our friend so needless to say India will have to find other sources of weapon procurement. It is also true that weapons of western world though costlier are much more advanced then what Russia can provide to us. Besides after the main purchase of arms the supply of spares are tardy and create a major problem with Russia.

Moreover with India now itself trying to become self reliant in weapon production, its private sector is more inclined to tie up with the western world major arms producers as against Russian companies. Truth is that West has shunned Russia, slapped sanctions on it, as a result Russia has moved East closer to China.

China has for long has been propping up Pakistan against India. Its basic policy for long has been to keep India hemmed in South Asia with the help of Pakistan. Pakistan due its sponsorship of terror against India and Afghanistan stands isolated in the western world. However it is not going to abandon this policy of it soon. China is its main support. With Russia coming in close proximity with china, Pakistan is hoping to cultivate Russia in a big way.

The big question is why Russia is moving towards Pakistan?

•  First. It is looking for another market for its weapons. Three helicopters to Pakistan is just the start.

•  Second. It will be snatching a US alley to its side.

•  Third. Pakistan is connected with China.

•  Fourth .It believes Pakistani propaganda that ISIS is bigger threat in Afghanistan than Taliban.

In all this India’s choices are limited. While we must do all we can to preserve this special relationship with Russia but not at the cost of our developing close relationship with US and most of all Israel? Russia is now firmly in China and Pakistan camp where it is not Russia but China who is playing leadership role.

China will never be a friend of India because of its ambition to become s super power where only country from whom it can feel threatened is India. The way things stand now in the US general elections possibility of Hillary Clinton winning the race to be the next American president looks very strong. If that happens then the current sanctions imposed on Russia by the US and other western countries will not ease thus pushing Russia more and more into Chinese camp.

Here India should try to counsel America not to pursue its sanction policy on Russia and wean it away from the Chinese camp. How much India succeeds is something only time will tell? But the days of total bonhomie with Russia are definitely over.

This summit meeting of PM Modi with Russian president Putin will definitely result in India buying some more Sukhoi-30 MKIs, production of Kamov helicopters in India, perhaps an additional Akula class nuclear power submarine on lease and production of more sophisticated weapons in India. Definitely India will be required to do tight rope walking.