Geopolitics

India's New Found Confidence
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Issue Net Edition | Date : 21 Nov , 2011

But a communist party affiliated paper did not mince words when it said India was risking its own energy security by “challenging the core interest of a large rising country for unknown oil at the bottom of sea.”The Chinese government also went on to issue a demarche which India rejected outright. India asserted its right to explore oil in block 127 and 128 of South China Sea, legally claimed by the government of Vietnam on the basis of international norms.

Chinese penchant to keep the border issue alive is only to keep India uneasy indefinitely.

It seems India is giving a new orientation to its ‘Look East’ policy. The government is not only trying to match the Chinese activism in South and South East Asia but also trying to puncture holes in Beijing’s policy of containment of India. Playing host to Presidents of Vietnam and Myanmar, two immediate south east neighbours of China and members of ASEAN was a well orchestrated geo-strategic move on part of India.

Myanmar’s President, first civilian head of the state in 50 years assured India during his visit that it would not allow its territory to be used by the insurgents. His government also stopped construction of Chinese assisted $ 3.6 bn hydro-power project in kachin state of Myanmar on the ground that it was resulting in unrest amongst the people being uprooted from their homes. Besides, millions of Chinese had moved over a period into Myanmar from neighbouring state of Yunnan and other Chinese provinces and had monopolised business, real estate and construction activities. The situation along the Sino-Myanmar border is also a matter of serious concern. Years of bonhomie notwithstanding, serious fissures are manifesting in Sino-Myanmar relationship. Realising the implications, the Chinese leadership has been trying to defuse the situation. On the other side, India finds itself in a position of advantage to promote its look east policy more vigorously.

The situation along the Sino-Myanmar border is also a matter of serious concern..

China and India have already a large number of divergent issues to tackle, a few areas of convergence notwithstanding, Territorial, maritime, nuclear, trade and currency are some of the issues that keep the two nations at loggers head. Now, India’s resolve to enhance its clout in South East Asia and remain in South China Sea has a potential of a serious conflict situation. India cannot back out without losing face. Besides, India’s rising population and growing economy requiring higher standards of living will create pressures for ever rising need for energy.

Chinese penchant to keep the border issue alive is only to keep India uneasy indefinitely. Although, MEA is at pains to clarify that there is no acrimony between the two nations, the situation is no less grave. However, China is conscious of the fact that India’s propensity to tilt towards the US precludes any scope of pushing India to the brink. The US’ interest in South China Sea is a factor that cannot be ignored and which should inhibit the Chinese from resorting to any adventure against India.

China has also been investing heavily in creating assets in and around Indias neighbourhood that are inimical to its long term interest. China is using these peripheral states in pursuance of its long term strategic interest to contain India.

Notwithstanding, the inevitability of conflict does exist. China claims full sovereignty over the entire South China Sea ignoring the claims of other countries. It has warned all countries including India to refrain from undertaking any oil exploration in blocks offered by Vietnam.  In fact, the state run Global Times has not only warned India “for serious political provocation that would push China to the limit” but also suggested disruptive activities and impediments in India’s way as and when it commences oil exploration in South China Sea. However, unfazed by Chinese threats, Vietnam asserts its right to engage friendly countries to explore hydro-carbon in areas falling within its jurisdiction. These oil and gas fields lie on the continental shelf within the exclusive economic zone under the sovereign rights of Vietnam and in total conformity with 1982 UN Convention on laws of the Sea. The Chinese claim on South China has also been rejected by India on the basis of UN laws on Sea. India declared further that its state owned ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) would go ahead regardless and explore oil in South China Sea.

China has literally ignored India’s protests about its illegal activities in POK, an integral part of an Indian state of J&K where it has positioned nearly 4000 Chinese troops. Some of these troops are located almost next to the LOC. It has been a cause of serious concern for India. Besides, China has also been investing heavily in creating assets in and around India’s neighbourhood that are inimical to its long term interest. China is using these peripheral states in pursuance of its long term strategic interest to contain India.

Interestingly, China now views India’s presence in its close vicinity and strengthening of relations with states in its area of influence as antagonistic. If China wants to expand its influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, India too can do the same in East and South East Asia is perhaps the message for China. India’s stand in South China Sea may thus induce China to ponder over the situation in proper perspective and appreciate India’s sensitivities at par with its own.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Air Marshal RS Bedi

Former Director General Defence Planning Staff.

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