A couple of land mark events have taken place during the last few months; India asserting its rights to explore oil in South China Sea by entering into a contract with the Vietnamese government in a potentially conflict situation with the Chinese and signing of a strategic partnership agreement with anarchic war ravaged Afghanistan on October 4, 2011during President Karzai visit to India. Government’s sudden decision to come to grips with the Chinese mounting challenge along our northern borders is yet another equally significant event that has come to the fore.
After overlooking the Chinese threat for years and literally following a policy bordering on acquiescence and appeasement, the government seem to have suddenly become vigilant. These events reflect a clear departure from years of past strategic indifference.
The MOD plans to induct nearly one lakh additional soldiers in next few years that include raising of four new divisions for Sino-Indian border, two of which would constitute Mountain Strike Corp dedicated for offensive operations. Besides, two independent brigades for deployment opposite Ladakh and Uttarakhand are also on the anvil. The government would incur an expenditure of Rs 64,000 crore ( $13 billion) over the period.
Fear of antagonising the Chinese with explicit preparations along the northern borders, restrained India from taking much needed security measures to improve its position in the past. However, the Chinese unmindful of India’s similar concern went ahead and built airfields for fighter bomber operations, metalled roads and railways for expeditious induction of troops and wherewithal and storage facilities for surface to air missiles. India on the other hand continued with dirt roads and without much infrastructure. After overlooking the Chinese threat for years and literally following a policy bordering on acquiescence and appeasement, the government seem to have suddenly become vigilant. These events reflect a clear departure from years of past strategic indifference.
Also, by signing strategic partnership agreement with Afghanistan, India has entered into an area of potential conflict with China as well as Pakistan. Pakistan is waiting in the wings for the US and the NATO forces to withdraw by 2014 so that it could establish its hegemony with the help of its proxies like the Haqqanis and ensure long cherished strategic depth against India. Its negative reaction is therefore on expected line, for it sees burgeoning Indo-Afghan relations as inimical to its long term interest. India is the biggest regional donor with $2 bn invested in development and infrastructure projects. Obviously, India like others also has economic and energy interests and will perhaps prospect for hydro-carbons. How it creates a space for itself, especially when Pakistan and China are antagonistic towards it has to be seen. Will India be able to meet its objectives and also help Afghanistan to stabilise as the powers that be now expect it to do without getting embroiled in this quagmire is a moot point?
Indias foray in South China Sea is another bold initiative, not quite bereft of serious ramifications.
India’s foray in South China Sea is another bold initiative, not quite bereft of serious ramifications. The Petro Vietnam and the ONGC Videsh of India signed a deal for oil exploration in South China Sea during Vietnam President Truong Tang Sang recent visit to India, overlooking Beijing’s objections. The deal was signed at a time when the communist party Chief Nguyen Phu Trong was in China, pacifying the Chinese perhaps. China’s official news agency Xinhua said later that both countries had promised to hold “frequent communication and dialogue on maritime issues” and that they would not “allow any hostile force to destroy their relations.” Obviously, they had reached some sort of understanding amongst themselves.
But a communist party affiliated paper did not mince words when it said India was risking its own energy security by “challenging the core interest of a large rising country for unknown oil at the bottom of sea.”The Chinese government also went on to issue a demarche which India rejected outright. India asserted its right to explore oil in block 127 and 128 of South China Sea, legally claimed by the government of Vietnam on the basis of international norms.
Chinese penchant to keep the border issue alive is only to keep India uneasy indefinitely.
It seems India is giving a new orientation to its ‘Look East’ policy. The government is not only trying to match the Chinese activism in South and South East Asia but also trying to puncture holes in Beijing’s policy of containment of India. Playing host to Presidents of Vietnam and Myanmar, two immediate south east neighbours of China and members of ASEAN was a well orchestrated geo-strategic move on part of India.
Myanmar’s President, first civilian head of the state in 50 years assured India during his visit that it would not allow its territory to be used by the insurgents. His government also stopped construction of Chinese assisted $ 3.6 bn hydro-power project in kachin state of Myanmar on the ground that it was resulting in unrest amongst the people being uprooted from their homes. Besides, millions of Chinese had moved over a period into Myanmar from neighbouring state of Yunnan and other Chinese provinces and had monopolised business, real estate and construction activities. The situation along the Sino-Myanmar border is also a matter of serious concern. Years of bonhomie notwithstanding, serious fissures are manifesting in Sino-Myanmar relationship. Realising the implications, the Chinese leadership has been trying to defuse the situation. On the other side, India finds itself in a position of advantage to promote its look east policy more vigorously.
The situation along the Sino-Myanmar border is also a matter of serious concern..
China and India have already a large number of divergent issues to tackle, a few areas of convergence notwithstanding, Territorial, maritime, nuclear, trade and currency are some of the issues that keep the two nations at loggers head. Now, India’s resolve to enhance its clout in South East Asia and remain in South China Sea has a potential of a serious conflict situation. India cannot back out without losing face. Besides, India’s rising population and growing economy requiring higher standards of living will create pressures for ever rising need for energy.
Chinese penchant to keep the border issue alive is only to keep India uneasy indefinitely. Although, MEA is at pains to clarify that there is no acrimony between the two nations, the situation is no less grave. However, China is conscious of the fact that India’s propensity to tilt towards the US precludes any scope of pushing India to the brink. The US’ interest in South China Sea is a factor that cannot be ignored and which should inhibit the Chinese from resorting to any adventure against India.
China has also been investing heavily in creating assets in and around Indias neighbourhood that are inimical to its long term interest. China is using these peripheral states in pursuance of its long term strategic interest to contain India.
Notwithstanding, the inevitability of conflict does exist. China claims full sovereignty over the entire South China Sea ignoring the claims of other countries. It has warned all countries including India to refrain from undertaking any oil exploration in blocks offered by Vietnam. In fact, the state run Global Times has not only warned India “for serious political provocation that would push China to the limit” but also suggested disruptive activities and impediments in India’s way as and when it commences oil exploration in South China Sea. However, unfazed by Chinese threats, Vietnam asserts its right to engage friendly countries to explore hydro-carbon in areas falling within its jurisdiction. These oil and gas fields lie on the continental shelf within the exclusive economic zone under the sovereign rights of Vietnam and in total conformity with 1982 UN Convention on laws of the Sea. The Chinese claim on South China has also been rejected by India on the basis of UN laws on Sea. India declared further that its state owned ONGC Videsh Ltd (OVL) would go ahead regardless and explore oil in South China Sea.
China has literally ignored India’s protests about its illegal activities in POK, an integral part of an Indian state of J&K where it has positioned nearly 4000 Chinese troops. Some of these troops are located almost next to the LOC. It has been a cause of serious concern for India. Besides, China has also been investing heavily in creating assets in and around India’s neighbourhood that are inimical to its long term interest. China is using these peripheral states in pursuance of its long term strategic interest to contain India.
Interestingly, China now views India’s presence in its close vicinity and strengthening of relations with states in its area of influence as antagonistic. If China wants to expand its influence in South Asia and the Indian Ocean, India too can do the same in East and South East Asia is perhaps the message for China. India’s stand in South China Sea may thus induce China to ponder over the situation in proper perspective and appreciate India’s sensitivities at par with its own.
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India has close relations with Vietnam from earlier days. One of the primary aims of President Truong Tan Sang’s visit to India was to deepen the strategic and defence ties further with India. India has already been helping Vietnam in building its naval and air capabilities. Vietnam may even buy Brahamos cruise missile from India. In fact, Vietnam has already given India the right to operate from its sea port of Nha Trang. We should build similar bridges with other South Asian countries too by supporting them holistically. They will thus emerge as pressure points against China.
As a rising power, India must be in a position to take care of its interest beyond its frontiers. Whilst, both the Indian navy and the Indian air force have some trans-nation and trans-ocean capabilities, these need to be built up further and made more viable
These countries have been looking at India for long for support to balance the intimidating dragon. Bi-lateral relations in fields of defence, security, trade, investment, education and culture are growing fast. Free trade agreement signed between India and ASEAN will help boost economic ties further. Some of these countries that are operating Russian origin military equipment have been seeking India’s help in training and maintenance areas. India is presently in a position to build these countries and deepen its foot print through strategic partnerships.
Presently, a near war like situation exists between China, Vietnam and Philippines over their claims in South China Sea. It would however be prudent for India not to get embroiled directly in their conflict. Notwithstanding., India must strive purposefully to build its Comprehensive National Power so as to be in a position to assert its will when time comes. Resurgent economy by itself will leave India no better than what Japan and Germany are today. Diplomacy too needs to be backed by hard power.
As a rising power, India must be in a position to take care of its interest beyond its frontiers. Whilst, both the Indian navy and the Indian air force have some trans-nation and trans-ocean capabilities, these need to be built up further and made more viable. It may be mentioned here that the only aircraft carrier that China will operationalise soon will be deployed in resource rich South China Sea Besides, recent report released by Pentagon on China’s hectic pace of modernisation is literally scary. New Delhi can ill-afford to ignore these facts.
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