US is backing the project to link Central Asia with South Asia, with TAPI symbolizing this vision, but US’s ability today to bend Pakistan to its will has suffered erosion.
Stability in Afghanistan and containment of the Taliban threat there in a regional context is another challenge that will acquire sharper contours post 2014.
Lack of direct access to Afghanistan exposes the lack of a credible Indian policy towards Central Asia.
The west is looking for a compromise with the Taliban, believing it can live with an Islamized Afghanistan so long as it is not anti-west. The backing the Muslim Brotherhood is receiving from the west in the Arab world would indicate that practical, realpolitik deals can be made with Islamic radicalism and rationalized. Such a scenario is not in our interest, but the means we have to forestall this are limited.
We have therefore a multifold challenge in Afghanistan, of retaining our presence and influence in that country, creating internal support for us there that can be used to counter the Taliban and the revival of radical forces there that can threaten our security directly with Pakistani support.
Lack of direct access to Afghanistan exposes the lack of a credible Indian policy towards Central Asia. We have to galvanize Iran to cooperate with us for an alternative access to Afghanistan trough Chabahar.
The Iranian nuclear issue has serious implications for India should there be recourse by the west to military action against that country. The de-stabilization of the Gulf region which will occur as a result would be very costly for India, as India has huge energy, manpower and financial interests in the region. India would have to steer clear of the rising Shia-Sunni conflict in the Muslim world.
India’s Look East policy is now facing new challenges with the erstwhile equation between China and East and Southeast Asia disturbed by China’s muscle-flexing in the South China sea.
India would have to steer clear of the rising Shia-Sunni conflict in the Muslim world.
India has concerns about the freedom of passage through international waters, but otherwise India’s priorities concerns are in the Indian Ocean area. However, for geo-political reasons, India would need to come closer to those countries targetted by Chinese claims, though without getting directly embroiled in the territorial disputes.
In the Indian Ocean area, India should try to maintain its dominant status as a littoral state as much as possible, knowing however that at some stage Chinese presence in these waters will increase, as is portended by China’s active search for port facilities in this area.
India’s declared openness to cooperation with China on maritime issues should be based on the legitimacy of not only China’s presence in the Indian Ocean but also India’s maritime presence close to China’s shores.
India would need to give priority to its relations with Myanmar, now that the latter wants to loosen the Chinese grip over the country. Myanmar is of key importance to create east-west connectivity in this region from which India can benefit greatly. Our challenge is to implement our infrastructure projects in Myanmar without inordinate delays.
As part of our Look East policy, keeping the Chinese dimension in view and bilateral benefits that can accrue to us, India would need to boost its relations with Japan, including mobilizing Japan’s clout in the ADB to finance the east-west corridors in Asia. Our increasing strategic engagement with Japan is a welcome move.
We have a shared interest with US in this but US policies in the Gulf region, driven by the Israeli and Iranian factors, are not in line with our interests as they keep the area on the boil.
Beyond all these challenges, there are those of energy, food security and of climate change.
The energy issue is not one of foreign policy alone, but it has a strong external dimension for us because of our huge dependence on energy imports.
Our diplomacy will need to facilitate investment in hydrocarbon fields abroad as part of our energy security drive, besides working for avoidance of conflict in areas which are our biggest source of oil and gas. We have a shared interest with US in this but US policies in the Gulf region, driven by the Israeli and Iranian factors, are not in line with our interests as they keep the area on the boil.
Energy, of course, is one area where technology can achieve such breakthroughs as can change the global energy scenario.
Climate change issues, in which energy use and environmental concerns intersect with issues of competitivity and market openings for western technologies, will become a source of increasing external pressure on India in the years ahead.
The water issue in South Asia-Tibet region looms ahead. Apart from countering Pakistan’s cynical manipulation of the water issue to sustain its negative postures towards India, securing Chinese cooperation in transparent handling of the Tibetan dimension will be a challenge.
In the competition for access to natural resources, China is already far ahead of India because of greater financial resources at its disposal and its ability to organize a coordinated national effort to that end which our system does not permit.
India cannot expect backing from external powers on its border differences with China and Pakistan.
A new Indian approach that goes beyond relying on the private sector to make economically rational decisions from their perspective would be needed, but that implies a different way of economic governance.
At the end of it all, the internal and the external cannot be compartmentalized in any country. Success or failure at home will mean success or failure abroad.
The economy is the building block of a successful foreign policy, as required resources then become available to erect defenses at home and to pursue interests abroad.
While it may not be a foreign policy issue per se, the establishment of an indigenous defence manufacturing base is vital for acting independently on the world stage. No country that cannot independently defend itself can reach big power status.
Our external dependence on arms and technology supplies limits the options available to our foreign policy.
In conclusion, it can be said that India faces unique geo-political challenges that will remain in the years ahead.
It has two strategically hostile neighbours, China and Pakistan. Both are strategic partners against India. China has transferred nuclear and missile technology to Pakistan to neutralize India strategically.
Both have claims on India territory. India is the only country of magnitude and importance in the world whose borders are contested, with a Line of Control in J&K with Pakistan and the Line of Actual Control with China. This is an unstable situation inherently whatever the agreed CBMs.
Upgrading the military infrastructure in the north quickly and accelerating our naval strength in the Indian Ocean are challenges ahead.
The challenge for India is to engage with both constructively and yet be prepared to confront them if necessary. India needs to avoid a two-front situation but it cannot make any undue concessions to either adversary.
India cannot expect backing from external powers on its border differences with China and Pakistan. In fact US is responsible for drawing the LOC in J&K from NJ9842 to the Karakoram Pass arbitrarily. We should demand redress and a return to legality on this issue from US.
US supports China’s territorial integrity but has not extended such support to India’s territorial integrity. We should engage US on this point as a strategic partner.
India gets better understanding on the terrorism issue it is faced with, but the west is unable and unwilling to sanction Pakistan adequately because it needs Pakistan for ensuring an orderly withdrawal from Afghanistan, besides the need to engage Pakistan as a major Islamic and nuclear-armed country.
This explains why despite the west’s willingness to use military means to combat proliferation elsewhere, Pakistan’s rapidly expanding nuclear arsenal is being countenanced, adding to threats to India’s security. The signs of revival of the agenda to limit proliferation in South Asia, excluding the Chinese factor, have to be scotched by us.
The political turmoil in the Arab world, with the Muslim Brotherhood gaining political power in many countries, is steering the Islamic world away from secularism. The growth of influence of Saudi Arabia and Qatar as well as an increasingly Islamized Turkey is not likely to encourage more liberal and modernist thinking in our neighbourhood in the mid-term.
The disturbance of the existing balance between Shias and Sunnis in our neighbourhood can have negative repercussions for us, even internally. We have to remain watchful of these developments in the years ahead.
Upgrading the military infrastructure in the north quickly and accelerating our naval strength in the Indian Ocean are challenges ahead.
The priority of priorities is to improve governance at home because the strength of our external limbs depends on the strength and depth of our roots in the ground.
Finally, if there is any truth in the dictum that more things change the more they remain the same, then it would seem that the future foreign policy challenges for India will remain the same in a different form: protection of our independence and sovereignty, friendship with all and enmity with none and a peaceful environment in which we can economically grow and meet our internal challenges.
Y.B.Chavan memorial lecture at IDSA on November 30, 2012
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Mr. Sibal’s conclusion that our real adversary is China and not US, gives China an easy pass. China is more than an adversary. India is facing an existential threat from China through Pakistan. By arming Pakistan with nuclear weapons and missiles, China’s dirty work can be handled by Pakistan should there be a shooting war between Pakistan/China and India. In the least, the threat of a nuclear confrontation with Pakistan is more probable than with China, which has weakened India’s hand in dealing with Pakistan’s terrorism and China’s land encroachment. This delima is real and now. Moving forward, the three most important issues for India are well outlined in Mr. Sibal’s article with some clarifications. First India’s priority should be to develop a strong economy to compete with China. There is no substitute for this. Second build a modern defence architecture with the help of US and NATO friendly countries such as France, Britain, Germany, Japan and Australia. There is a congruency of interests in neutralizing China’s military expansion. Third, work with delibertions to form a growing partnership with US. This partnership must be viewed more than a foreign policy strategy. India and US are the largest democracies with commonality of interests, expectation and human concerns based on individual freedom and secular foundation. No other country fills the bill and definitaly not Russia.