Indian Defence Review

Risk Analysis

It is learnt that 80 per cent deaths due to terrorism have been in Iraq Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nigeria and Syria.

Global Risk

• Terrorist strikes possible anywhere in globe. Unsafe world.
• Global expansion of Islamic Jihad, Caliphate, if not controlled.
• Risk of nuclear know-how and WMD falling into the hands of terrorists. Next level- CBRN terrorism. Likelihood of tech know-how to manufacture nuclear bombs reaching terrorists from Pakistan deliberately or otherwise, dangerous for entire world. The ISIS is looking for expertise to make tactical nukes, having got nuclear material from laboratories. The threat of proliferation of Tactical Nuclear bomb technology falling into the hands of Jihadis and ‘Dirty Bomb’.
• Global increase in refugees resulting turbulence in demography, economy and risk of further induction of terrorists in various parts of the world.
• Free flow of oil from the Middle-East and the Gulf, especially to energy deficient countries may suffer as the region has one-third of the oil and one-tenth of the gas in the world.
• Global upsurge in extortion, abduction, kidnapping, drug trafficking, smuggling of small arms and other criminal activities.
• Cyber terrorism.
• Global recruitment for Jihad.
• Abuse of Islam by these terrorists may lead to everyone viewing Muslims with suspicion across the globe and their immigration becoming difficult.

The United States

• Increasing threat of terror strikes on US soil due to growing hatred for the US amongst terrorist groups.
• Risk of prolonged deployment in the Af-Pak region and the Middle East may result in domestic pressure on President Obama, especially due to different types of challenges appearing in South and East China Sea and North Korea. However, a global war against the ISIS may become inevitable.
• Having learnt a lesson in Iraq, withdrawal without proper stabilisation of Afghanistan, or handing over security situation to ANSF, dominated by Uzbeks, Tajiks, Hazaras, and other minority ethnic groups coupled under the threat of resurgence of Taliban and Al Qaida is inviting another disaster or civil war.
• Compulsions for strategic realignment e.g. fighting the ISIS along with Iran and Syria.
• Sharp rise in Arab American population may invite more US recruits into the ISIS.
• Opportunity cost in the Asia Pacific and other strategically important areas.

China

Despite declaring itself as part of the global war on terrorism, China’s logic of putting on hold JeM Chief Masood Azhar being declared as global terrorist, on the excuse that he does not meet the criteria for it, does not appear convincing to anyone, when the JeM itself as an organisation was declared a terrorist organisation in 2001, because of its links with Al Qaeda and other terrorist organisations.

China may feel that these actions of appeasing the terrorist groups and showing support to Pakistan are in her strategic interest to keep insurgency in Xinjiang under control and restricted to fringes, but are against the global mood, besides being irksome to India. These highlight the double game by most global powers to help some countries, regimes or terrorist groups suiting her strategic interests and fight those which do not suit them.

Although $42 billion investment as ‘power and energy aid’ is worth gaining access to $3 trillion in mineral and energy resources through the CPEC and involvement in Afghanistan, will getting into the Northern region of Pakistan really give China a buffer from the spread of Islamic fundamentalists looking for resting and hiding places?

Chinese gamble of investing in Pakistan, which hosts the maximum number of terrorist groups in the world, and their terrorist groups can backfire, as some of these terrorist groups such as TTP, are not controlled by the Pakistan establishment and are attacking the Pakistani military itself. Most of them do not like any foreign presence including US and China, even at the cost of development. Hence this gesture may not give China the license of safety of CPEC, avoiding safe havens for Uyghur, or hold fire against the IS plotting action in Xinjiang/China. Reports of Uyghur rebels being trained by ISIS/ Pakistan may not prevent Jihadi fallouts in Xinjiang.

The kind of terrorist recruitment and actions seen in last few months may not leave the Chinese diasporas immune to such activity, and can cause a threat to an otherwise safe Eastern seaboard, after all no one imagined 9/11 in US, till it actually happened. The smooth flow of oil may get obstructed causing energy shortage in Tibet and Xinjiang. Plans of transnational highways and oil pipelines to connect Europe to Southeast Asia and CPEC may be in jeopardy.

Countries Neighbouring Syria and Iraq

The extension of the Caliphate may become the first terrorist state, in the world if not checked in acquiring self-acclaimed legitimacy. All the neighbours are worried. Jordon, Iran, and Turkey are also shivering.

Iran is committed to protecting Shia shrines in Iraq and helping Maliki. It sent Revolutionary Guards to fight ISIS in Iraq.

Lebanon is worried that Shia-dominated Hezbollah may lose the support of Iran resulting in a boost for ongoing terrorism in the region and causing heavy penalty on socio-economic and infrastructure development. The impact is being seen in Egypt with 32 dead in a recent attack and in the attack on a hotel in Libya.

Gulf States including Saudi Arabia covertly funding Sunni militants although officially oppose barbaric actions and the Caliphate of the ISIS. Qatar covertly funding Al Qaida affiliates Al-Nusra as it does not like Assad and Maliki government.

Dream of Kurdistan

Having outlawed Kurdish militant organisations Turkey is now helping Kurds in Iraq to stop the rise of the ISIS Caliphate extending towards them.

Turkey and Iran are worried about the revival of Kurdish ambition of Kurdistan (Turkey to Afghanistan), beginning with the Kurds asking for more autonomy in Turkey and Turk militants getting active.

Risks for South Asia

• The killing of a secular Bangladeshi Professor on April 23, 2016, claimed by the IS (as per media reports) and a series of such events announce the footprints of the IS in South Asia.
• Success of the ISIS may motivate other militant groups for more vigorous actions and increase their area of influence.
• Signs of Al Qaida, Taliban, ISIS, their affiliates and splinter groups already seen in most South Asian countries including India.
• US-NATO withdrawal without proper stabilisation of Afghanistan will increase instability in South Asia.
• Unchecked and imploding Pakistan will step up terrorism in South Asia by supporting all kinds of terrorist groups.
• Latent radicalism in Bangladesh and Muslim-Buddhist strife in Myanmar and Sri Lanka could also be exploited.
• ISIS inroads in this region may be faster than expected.

Risks for India

• Negative fallouts in the Kashmir Valley.
• Security of roughly seven million Indian diaspora living in Middle-East countries send back about $35 to $40 billion as remittances, which serve our economy well.
• Grave danger of interruptions in oil flow. India imports 70 per cent of its oil from this region. Iraq is the second largest supplier of oil to India.
• Turbulence in the Af-Pak region has a major impact on Indian security.
• India has excellent relations with most countries having contrary interests in this region.
• Taliban and Al Qaida have been emboldened with the success of the IS. They are all competing to be the leading terrorist group for the cause of Islamic jihad. Activities like the attack in Paris by Al Qaida may well be planned in India as well. Even Boko Haram claims to be the deadliest.
• In efforts to increase influence in South Asia, there are signs of linkages with militant groups in and around India. AQIS are associate jihadi groups seeking entry into India via Bangladesh, Nepal and other neighbours.

Conclusion

Today, a large number of countries are facing terrorist threats and are trying to contain or combat these in stand-alone mode, despite acknowledging that such problems have regional and international linkages. For example, air strikes by Russia and France after the Paris attack do not seem to have caused any significant effect on the IS. The problem is more acute for certain nations, who do suffer from such problems, but do not have adequate resources and defensive apparatus to fight the same. Thus there is a need for the global community including United Nations to take initiative and convince its members to formulate a global strategy to combat these threats and concerns, which would entail aggressive political, military and diplomatic actions.

It is high time that the international community sensitises itself to future challenges to peace and make global efforts to address these global concerns with deliberations in a synergised manner.

• We need to first stop the double game by all global and regional powers of opposing one terrorist group and supporting another based on petty interests, because creating this menace is easy but controlling it subsequently is difficult, and the guns can turn back to the creator/sponsor any time. The desire of global powers to initiate regime change for favourable regime needs to be given up, as it has turned too risky.
• A comprehensive UN Convention on International Terrorism to punish those, who shelter and finance terrorists, needs to be formulated and followed religiously.
• A counter narrative by those who understand and practice religion, religious leaders, intelligentsia to educate people that no religion advocates killing innocent people must reach the youth and affected population, as the affected population is the Centre of Gravity of Counter terrorist operations.
• Countries propagating proxy war and supporting terrorists, overtly or covertly for whatever reasons, must be boycotted by the global community.
• The Caliphate of the IS needs to be eliminated with synergised use of combat power including boots on ground, besides air attacks and application of other combat resources, by all global powers as well as affected countries.
• Cyber support and free flow of intelligence and early warning to affected countries will help the response timings and mechanisms. The need to create a cyber capability to beat the cyber network of the terrorists is a pressing issue and needs to be undertaken on a war footing. Global financial institutions must be asked to share information as the IS cannot extort a billion dollars without the former’s knowledge.
• The fault lines indicated need serious considerations before the world faces an unprecedented risk of uncontrollable terrorism and it is too late to respond. Announcement of sending US troops by the US President in the third week of April 2016 is a positive signal in this regard.