Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Prime Minister of Pakistan Nawaz Sharif
The Indian Prime Minister, Mr Narendra Modi on Dec 25, 2015 surprised all by a simple tweet. He said he was going to stop over at Lahore, to wish his Pakistani counterpart, Mr Nawaz Sharif a happy birthday.
Mr Modi has succeeded in highlighting Pakistan’s role in breeding terrorism at all the international forums far more effectively than all the efforts made in past.
Incidentally, Mr Sharif and India’s former Prime Minister Mr Atal Bihari share the same birthday. The two had tried to turn the destiny of our sub-continent in 1999, when Atal Bihari went to Lahore by bus. The peace bus that landed at Kargil, killing hundreds of soldiers on both the sides. A short localised war had nearly brought the two nations to a nuclear brink.
Indo-Pakistan relations are riddled by suspicion, animosity and hatred that arises out of religious intolerance and the scars of history. From General Ayub Khan in 60s till the last Pakistani ruler, all had suicidal dreams ranging from hoisting their flag on the Delhi’s Red Fort to bleeding India by a thousand cuts. Apart from the four wars fought by these neighbours, Pakistani perpetrated terrorist attacks on the Indian Parliament and Mumbai are a testimony to their acrimonious past.
Recently the Uffa agreement and subsequent failure of initiation of NSA level talks post Gurdaspur terror strike, brought the peace efforts to square one. The diplomatic stalemate appeared static. The opposition parties, media and the hard line fringe on both the sides emerged as spoilers and victorious. The environment was vitiated even before the first step was taken.
The secret NSA level talks at Bangkok followed by the Indian foreign minister, Mrs Sushma Swaraj’s visit to Pakistan to attend the Heart of Asia conference,signalled towards something positive in making.
The critiques asked the Mr Modi, what had changed between India and Pakistan that led to change of hearts. After all it was Modi who had said that the talks between the countries could not take place under the shadow of terror.
Treading the thin dangerous line carefully and doing a diplomatic coup by complete surprise, Mr Modi has played the master stroke.
But the fact of the matter is that lot has changed ever since the new government has taken charge. On the Line of Control, Pakistanis have been chastened by the ferocity of Indian response to their cease fire violations. Indians have managed to remove the Hurriyat from the spot light and literally rendered them hors-de-combat. Mr Modi has succeeded in highlighting Pakistan’s role in breeding terrorism at all the international forums far more effectively than all the efforts made in past.
But there are far more serious dynamics at work. Most importantly it is the Russian and Chinese geo-economic interest that are reshaping the geo politics in India- AfPak region. Russians are facing a western embargo on their oil and gas export to Europe post Ukraine crisis. This has impacted the Russian economy adversely. The Chinese economic slowdown and her desire to bridge the huge economic gap between its eastern and western provinces is a major challenge. The cost of transportation of goods and material from the eastern port to the western Chinese regions gets multiplied manifolds.
Huge hydro carbon reserves of Central Asian Republics (CAR) and vast mineral wealth of Afghanistan. Linking of the Mediterranean Sea to China by the energy and trade corridor running through Russia and the CAR along with development of Gawadar port and connecting the Arabian Sea to Kaxgar by a similar corridor signals towards growing geo-economic interest of major players in this part of the world.
China, the all-weather friend of Pakistan has the highest stakes in this region. This is followed by Russia who is also the strategic partner of India. Interestingly the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), which is a Eurasian, political, economic and military organisation is the order of the day. It has Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as its members since 2001. On July 10, 2015, SCO admitted India and Pakistan as full members.
While India-Pakistan relations cannot improve overnight, the reach out must continue keeping herself ready with firm response should Pakistan falls out of line.
Russians drawing close to Pakistan and selling her arms at the cost of India’s discomfort should not come as a surprise. Peace in India-AfPak region is the foremost priority of these two Eurasian giants. Export of Russian and CAR oil and gas through the warm waters of Arabian Sea and import of minerals from Africa and other countries through this region makes a huge economic meaning to both.
Reducing American footprint in the heart of Asia and growing Russian and Chinese stature coupled with their geo-economic interest, a peaceful Indian subcontinent is an utmost priority.
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The Indo-Pak relations thus should not be limited to the regular rhetoric and history. Effective Chinese and Russian influence over Pakistan and India, strong leadership in India, Pakistan’s military backing to Nawaz Sharif for the renewed peace dialogue are the strongest factors that can turn the course of fate of the people of this sub-continent. Treading the thin dangerous line carefully and doing a diplomatic coup by complete surprise, Mr Modi has played the master stroke.
While India Pakistan relations cannot improve overnight, the reach out must continue keeping herself ready with firm response should Pakistan falls out of line.
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This flight resulted in the Pathankot terror attack exposing once again the futility of engaging with Pak.
Well, along with all the other assumptions & assessments about Modi s efforts for gaining hold on geo political issues involved in the relationship btwn two countries by making this flying visit to Lahor, another disguised policy of BJP that seems to b shaping up successfully has been displayed by Hafiz Saeed s tweets &videos showing disagreement with Pak govt on this rarest of the event happening on Paki soil. ….
…Divide & Rule??
I believe this is a very well written article with its inferences suggesting a far reaching future international dynamics.
The world peace and international accommodation needs these dynamics to work !!
My compliments to Danvir Singh !!
The difficulty is that India is now aligned with the US which is kicking India in the face. Obama even abused Indian hopsitality by preaching tolerance to Narendra Bhai while feeding the US’ traditional Islamic hounds of Daesh (the most virulent regiment of Al Qada trained Taliban), Turkey and Pakistan. (The US just dropped a Billion Dollars worth of hi tech arms including nuclear weapons delivery systems into Pakistan’s lap to add to the Sukhois that Pakistan has recently purchased from Russia). At the same time, the US-NATO-Islam axis has intensified both its Second Cold War against Russia by engineering a “regime change” in Ukraine and shooting down MH-17 and blaming it on Russia to unite NATO in sanctions against Russia. This War is now merging with the low intensity Third World War that the US is carrying out by throwing one country after another into the maws of Islam (Began with Bosnia and Kosovo, followed by Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, and so on). In aligning with the US at this juncture of time, India has aligned itself against both India and Russia. A chess player like Putin dedicated to beleaguered Russian interests will not have much patience to pander to the naivete of an India that is continuing to build its foreign policy on the incompetence of a Jabberlal Neckscrew, his cronies and extended family, and the excessively socially engineered Indian Foreign Service. Or, to pander to the weakness of an India created by 69 years of unremitting Reservations-Extortion Raj that lay it open not only to the US-China proxy of Pakistan, but also China, as well as China’s proxy communism and Pakistan’s proxy Islam that have grown deep roots under encouragement of India’s Periyar-Ambedkar-Nehru-Gandhi-Imported Religions-Communist (Pangolin) Consensus) has made out of India, Hence the desperate focus on charming Pakistan.
1 I think the visit of the prime minister Modi must be applauded. It should be seen with an eye on a bigger picture and not relying on mere fool hardy emotions.
2 Most of our experts in the media narrative is going to be that since Modi lost Bihar he has done a U-turn and suddenly wants peace with Pak. Don’t you think, by making such a statement, they are lowering the discourse of the real issue involved.
3 This indeed is a statesmen like act of our PM. One has to be unorthodox to deal with a situation as complex as Indo-Pak relations. In fact if both the countries are serious to move forward meaningfully, which I feel is imperative for the future, have to keep media out of the entire gamut.
4 Media of both the nations are not yet matured enough to understand the gravity and most of the time they play on the emotions and the sensitivity of the general public. . What is needed is maturity of highest standard from the media of both sides. Sadly neither country understands the other.