Geopolitics

Bahrain: A Nervous Watch
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By B Raman
Issue Net Edition | Date : 19 Feb , 2011

Even though the demonstrators initially took care not to project their protests as Shia protests against Sunni domination, the authorities, who have accused the Shia protesters of polarising inter-communal relations, have themselves contributed to the polarisation by encouraging the Sunnis, including Sunnis from South Asia living and working in Bahrain, to hold a counter demonstration in support of the King. The attempt of the authorities to encourage counter-demonstrations by the Sunnis and the reported participation of Sunnis from South Asia in them could turn the Shias against the Muslim migrants from South Asia.

The Shias have been enraged by the brutal dispersal of the protesters from the Pearl Square.A senior Shia cleric, Sheikh Issa Qassem, has condemned the attack on the protesters by the riot police as a “massacre” . According to Al Jazeera,in the wake of the crack-down by the riot police, angry demonstrators chanted “the regime must go,” and burned pictures of King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa outside the emergency ward at Salmaniya Medical Complex, the main hospital in Manama

Bahrain’s opposition has demanded the resignation of Prime Minister Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa’s government in the wake of the raid.
“The opposition groups, including Al-Wefaq, have issued a statement demanding the government resign and calling for the formation of a new government to investigate this crime,” said Al-Wefaq bloc’s leader, Ali Salman. “We have decided to completely pull out from parliament,” added Salman, whose bloc holds 18 seats in the country’s 40-member elected house.

Iran finds itself in a dilemma. It cannot vociferously support the demand for democracy and political reforms by the Shias of Bahrain while ruthlessly suppressing demonstrators in Iran voicing similar demands and threatening to execute their leaders. The US has been greatly concerned due to the likelihood of the unrest spreading to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries and coming in the way of its support to the anti-regime demonstrations in Iran. How can the US vociferously support the pro-democracy demostrations in Iran while maintaining a muted response to the demonstrations in Bahrain? If the demonstrations succeed in Bahrain and a pro-Iranian Shia group comes to power, it could affect the operations of the US Fifth Fleet, the headquarters of which are located in Bahrain.

Also read: Egypt: As seen from nervous China

The spread of the unrest in the Gulf region could impact on oil security. Mrs.Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, and Mr.Robert Gates, the US Defence Secretary, are reported to have contacted their counterparts in Bahrain and urged restraint.Obama’s spokesman Jay Carney has said the President’s view is that “we oppose the use of violence by the government of Bahrain.” If the US is not careful in handling the issue, it may end up by playing into the hands of Iran. At present, both the US and Iran face an equal dilemma in Bahrain, but the ultimate advantage could be with Iran if the protest movement picks up further momentum

There is considerable nervousness in the Gulf Countries.Foreign Ministers of the Gulf Co-operation Council consisting of Bahrain,Oman,Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates held an emergency meeting in Manama on February 17 and said in a statement: “Our security is a collective responsibility and there is no question of accepting foreign interference.”The crisis in Bahrain poses a ticklish situation for Indian workers—particularly India Muslims, many of whom are believed to be Sunnis. If the Shias ultimately succeed, local anger could turn against the Sunnis from South Asia, who will be suspected of letting themselves be used by the Sunni rulers to suppress the movement.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

B Raman

Former, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai & Additional Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. He is the author of The Kaoboys of R&AW, A Terrorist State as a Frontline Ally,  INTELLIGENCE, PAST, PRESENT & FUTUREMumbai 26/11: A Day of Infamy and Terrorism: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow.

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