American frustration with Pakistan’s continued support to the Haqqani network finally came into the open when Admiral Mike Mullen accused Islamabad of playing a “double game” of running with the hare and hunting with the hounds. President Obama and former President Clinton, too, have warned Pakistan against this duality in its stance. At some point America will distance itself from Pakistan and cut down its aid which will impact Rawalpindi, but may not be able to dissuade it to delink itself from the Taliban. On the other hand, it will drive it more and more into the arms of China.
While Pakistan is likely to view the Indian alliance with Afghanistan as an attempt to squeeze it from two sides, China may feel that its plan for the exploitation of Afghan mineral wealth will be in jeopardy.
Establishing a Taliban regime in Kabul gives Pakistan the added advantage in that Afghanistan would have neither the influence nor power to aggressively assert its historical claims to territories seized from the defeated Afghan rulers by the Imperial British power, which termed this new boundary as the Durand Line.
While Pakistan is likely to view the Indian alliance with Afghanistan as an attempt to squeeze it from two sides, China may feel that its plan for the exploitation of Afghan mineral wealth will be in jeopardy. China has already got a contract for copper mines in Afghanistan and is now extracting this valuable mineral. It is also exploring the possibility of more such contracts. Moreover, China will be loathe at the prospect of spread of Indian influence in this important region. China’s relentless quest for hydrocarbons and minerals would seek to negate Indian influence in the region for obvious reasons.
On its part, India does not have the capacity and the will to carry through this strategic alliance with Afghanistan, especially when Pakistan, in cahoots with China, militates against it. For India there is no air or land link with Afghanistan except through Iran. The geography itself is a major roadblock against this alliance with Kabul. It will also bring to naught Dr Manmohan Singh’s persistent efforts aimed at befriending Pakistan. Flip-flop in its policy on the issue of granting the Most Favoured Nation status to India is the result of uncertainty in the direction Pakistan wants to take though it does realise the tremendous economic advantage Pakistan will draw from this trade agreement with India. In any case, India is well acquainted with the duality of Pakistan’s politics.
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A good article by the General, as always. He is absolutely spot on with his analysis.
However, I only to wish to point out that the reference to Maharaja Ranjit Singh and the “map colored red” has not been historically validated. It was a rumour — likely spread by the British to consolidate their hold on India and Punjab, and convince the gullible and religious Punjabis that the arrival of the British was destined or pre-ordained, so as to gain greater acceptance of their rule in the Punjab.
Since then, the British severely manipulated the Punjab, even dabbling deeply in their religion, and giving the famous Sikh Regiment a battle song purportedly written by Guru Gobind Singh that historians now assert was never written by Guru Gobind Singh.