The developmental efforts initiated by Indian Government in the state of Jammu and Kashmir are a welcome measure for the state as well as for the country. These have been preceded by controversial measures of amnesty to stone pelters, and declaration of ‘Non Initiation of Combat Operations’. The details of the developmental activities have been covered in detail by all segments of the media in last two days, and these measures will have long term positive effects, more so in Ladakh and Jammu region, but the question whether it will bring peace in Kashmir Valley or otherwise needs a dispassionate analysis beyond the optics and announcements.
Messaging by Developmental Initiatives
Development is a necessity to physically and mentally connect with people in far flung areas and demonstration of the nation’s will to reach out to them. Project like Zojila tunnel besides improving connectivity and ease of travel from Kashmir Valley to Ladakh, also indicates the effort to lift the mental barrier of isolation for people on both sides of Zojila pass. It is also strategically important in improving reaction timings by approximately three hours for military between the two sectors, and reducing air vulnerability of moving columns in that segment. The ring roads around Srinagar and Jammu will definitely ease the traffic congestion of both cities, and the two power projects on Kishenganga and Pakal Dul will address the power needs of the state besides creating surplus power to be put on national grid.
The social messaging of these projects also indicates the Indian will of closer social inclusion of people of Jammu and Kashmir, like the Prime Minister attending closing ceremony of birth centenary of Rinpoche in Leh would amuse Buddhist population, the dangerous gesture of declaring suspension of combat operations by security forces to amuse Kashmiris, and Tarakote Marg and ropeway of Mata Vaishnodevi shrine will definitely be welcomed by all the visitors to the shrine. In nutshell the social packaging covers every segment of society of Jammu and Kashmir, and an investment of approximately Rs.25000 crore will help in changing their economic landscape and connectivity may help in boosting tourism.
There is an important international messaging in these developmental initiatives which includes a message to Pakistan that India is determined to use every ounce of water entitled to us by Indus Water Treaty, notwithstanding their objections to World Bank. This will reduce their surplus water availability being enjoyed by them so far. It also indicates that Pakistan may have to play hostage to China to develop infrastructure in POK, but India can do so in Jammu and Kashmir by domestic investment. It also messages Indian effort to embrace every Kashmiri, to the international community, as the perceptions have been blurred by negative Pakistani propaganda and their puppets in India.
Embracing the People of Kashmir: Risk Analysis
The recent initiatives aimed to embrace people of Kashmir are noble, but highly risky ideas with rare chance of success. The idea of amnesty to stone pelters has failed, and given a new dimension to the terrorist actions through stone pelting, wherein almost similar damage can be caused to security forces/civilians, with reasonable expectation that they will be left lightly, even if apprehended. The ideas like ceasefire and declaration of ‘Non Initiation of Combat Operations’ (NICO) were tried earlier in the Year 2000, but failed. The present declaration although is a slightly improved version of the old one, wherein security forces deployment and intelligence grid is not being disturbed, but they can take only retaliatory action, if militant fires at them during the holy month of Ramjan/ further instructions. The fact that declaration was rejected by terrorist groups, who intend continuing their actions during Ramjan, as well as separatist groups enjoying state protection, means that it is waiting to fail. Let me analyse the possibilities under the present model of NICO.
• The announcement by Kashmiri politicians that the people can peacefully sleep is a misconception, because the militants, especially the foreign ones cause innumerable atrocities on innocent people of Kashmir, but no one lodges complaint/FIR against them, as they know that the entire family will be wiped out. Abu Dujana is a case in point. It is unfortunate that not many politicians of Kashmir criticize or highlight their atrocities, which gives an impression that either they are terrorized or sold out to the adversary propagating proxy war.
• The announcement only restricts security forces, as if it was the security forces actions, which were disrupting peace of Kashmiris, which is demeaning and misplaced, because security forces are not there by choice, but are performing their duty for the nation.
• Under present model of NICO, the militants can move freely, kill some informers and terrorize the rest. The incidents of killing one civilian, looting of bank, and snatching weapons are minor incidents, but can be an indication of testing the water, as they know that security forces cannot do anything till they actually fire at them.
• Terrorists are free to do extortion, money laundering and muster enough funds for subsequent operations.
• They can carry out recruitment of young boys into their outfit by lurement/ terrorizing parents/children.
• NICO has no connection with Trans LC/IB firing, hence the border villages will continue to remain under threat.
• There is no guarantee that militants will behave during Amarnath Yatra with this political overreach, hence all precautions will have to be taken.
• Only time will tell that the political gamble of NICO, risking lives of security forces and innocent people from rested, reorganized terrorists was worth it or otherwise.
Is the Prescription suiting the Ailment
The development in Jammu and Kashmir like any other state is an encouraging step and will definitely ease lives of our people in that state. The fact is that the per capita GDP of Kashmir is higher than many states, and there are many states in India, which are lesser developed, but have not resorted to firing guns or stone pelting, indicates that the ailment of Kashmir is not only poor development /infrastructure. The problem of Kashmir has external and internal dimensions, which have to be dealt with together, as they are closely interwoven.
In external dimension, the Pakistan Army’s and ISI being the main players. Their influence and relevance is due to “Indian threat” and a ‘Boiling Kashmir Valley’, hence a peaceful Kashmir does not suit them. President Zia’s ‘Islamic Republic of Pakistan’ became breeding ground for Islamic terrorism. With radicalization and Wahhabism on the rise, Pakistan has witnessed a change in psyche and ideology. Kashmir remains an obvious target to avenge 1971. Due to internal instability, Pakistan Army could project itself as the only option available to bind and protect the country against India; hence they justify holding the reins of power. President Musharraf further nurtured militants, used them in proxy wars, as ‘strategic assets’ and this reality has not changed so far. It is unlikely to change as Pakistan Military has got used to power and will not like to lose it. In this backdrop, any effort by any Indian leaders to make Kashmir peaceful has to cater for external dimension.
The internal dimension is the terror industry inside Kashmir led by separatists organizing terror funding, protests, stone pelting, recruitment and militant commanders launching terror operations. Their narrative is written by ISI and militant commanders from Pakistan, within the overall plan of Pakistan military. While the development of Kashmir will reduce the numbers of unemployed youth, but the glamour of quick money with minimum efforts and belief in concocted radicalized narrative would need some more efforts beyond development.
What should India Do?
As the problem has persisted for so many decades, then there are no easy answers. As Indian analyst, let me attempt to suggest some of them.
• Internally the decision makers need to have an honest intention to resolve it. The allurement of vote bank politics has to be subordinated to national interest. While 95 percent people of Kashmir are innocent, but the remaining five percent call the shots, include Kashmiri politicians, separatists, OGWs, militants, rich people and civil servants. A disturbed Kashmir under article 370 suits these five percent people, as it attracts more aid, more money from both sides of the border, concessions from taxes and other benefits. They can afford to send their children in metro cities/abroad for studies/work and extract maximum from Centre, which has been following the policy of appeasing them for many decades. If Kashmir becomes peaceful, this money making arrangement and terror industry gets disturbed.
• There have been many enquiries against separatists, who reject all peace initiatives, allegedly continue to help terrorists with terror funding, are yet to be convicted. On the contrary they continue to get state protection on Indian tax payer’s money. A hesitation to do so indicates inadequacy of resolve for tough action to bring peace to Kashmir, as some politicians still look at them as vote catchers.
• Externally, Conventional war with Pakistan is not a worthwhile economical option, but actions short of war like strikes on terrorists are an option. India should also be looking at covert options against militants.
• While India expects the entire world to declare Pakistan a terrorist state, it has not done so itself. India has not scrapped ‘Most Favored Nation’ status to Pakistan.
• India should also take up the issue of Baluchistan in all world forums.
• India needs to do military capacity building to ensure that we have all military options on the table. India needs strike drones for pinpoint attack on militant camps. Modern surveillance equipment to check infiltration is another immediate requirement. For capacity building minimum three percent of GDP on Defence is required to create a deterrence to Pakistan.
• Steps to utilize full quota of allotted water by Indus water treaty is a welcomed step and needs to be pursued further with adequate water storage capability.
While the development of Jammu and Kashmir and embracement of innocent Kashmiri population is a highly welcomed step, which indicates good intention of India to reach out to them. The amnesty to stone pelters, announcement of NICO, rejected by terrorists and separatists is marred with danger, as it gives a new lifeline to them, who had been on the run after tremendous efforts and sacrifices of security forces. Some strategists will read it as a message of peace to Kashmir and international community, while others may call it as a message of a weak state, running out of options. This will invite criticism, should this initiative fail. Protection and mercy on separatists needs to be stopped, if the decision makers are really interested in having peace in Kashmir.
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