Sun Tzu had said “Don’t depend on enemy not coming; depend rather on being ready for him”5. Have we done enough diplomatically or militarily to negate or neutralise the threat from China after 1962? Well the answer is, No. Uneasy calm cannot be mistaken for ‘resolution’. We need to carry out audit of capabilities of our land forces vis-a-vis China. Some important facets we need to look into are:
- “Two-Front War Doctrine is based on this reality that India should expect and be prepared to effectively meet simultaneous threats from China on the Northern borders and Pakistan on the Western borders”.6 In view of the foregoing it is imperative that forces are so disposed that India is capable of handling two-front threat.
- Threat from China can not be considered in isolation; therefore, we must not discount simultaneous threat from Pakistan in the garb of continued proxy war in J&K. The Defence Ministry’s Annual Report for 2008-09 tabled in Rajya Sabha recently noted with concern the possibility of China “enhancing connectivity with Pakistan through the illegally occupied territory in Jammu and Kashmir…”7
- “China’s stated objectives, in its White Paper, of developing strategic missile and space-based assets and of rapidly enhancing its blue-water navy to conduct operations in distant waters, as well as the systematic upgrading of infrastructure, reconnaissance and surveillance, quick response and operational capabilities in the border areas, will have an effect on the overall military environment in the neighbourhood of India”.8 Growing asymmetry in economy and military modernization needs to be carefully studied to carry out realistic assessment of India’s military preparedness.
- China has formulated “War Zone Campaign (WZC)” strategy aimed at achieving local superiority, since Chinese leadership does not visualize total war in the present milieu. The WZC strategies include “elite forces and sharp arms”, “gaining initiative by striking first” and “fighting a quick battle to force a quick resolution”.9 The strategy is to prevent escalation and achieve superiority by employing combined arms with speed and surprise for quick resolution.
- “India has no real bargaining leverage vis-à-vis China and negotiations rarely succeed in the absence of leverage. India, moreover, is not making any serious effort to get any economic, diplomatic or military leverage vis-à-vis China.”10 This is causing unease with the rising gap between the two neighbours. The answer lies in building capability and forging strategic partnerships.
When we look at China as a neighbour with growing military power, we must rethink our national defence policy. The most alarming aspect of China’s military growth is development of anti satellite weapons, nuclear capable SLBMs and ICBMs with global ranges, cyber and information warfare capabilities, apart from a modernising conventional army. China recognizes that the army which is capable of achieving “information superiority” on the battlefield in future high-tech wars will seize the initiative and attain victory.11 Towards this end they have moved at much faster pace and have developed the EW/IW/cyber warfare capability to paralyze adversary’s command and control set up. China is yet develop Radio Frequency weapons but is expected to do so by 2015. They have already taken a step forward in this direction and developed “high-power microwave (HPM). In relation to this where are we? India must plan now to build the capabilities to meet the future challenges posed by China.
We must rethink our national defence policy. The most alarming aspect of Chinas military growth is development of anti satellite weapons, nuclear capable SLBMs and ICBMs with global ranges, cyber and information warfare capabilities, apart from a modernising conventional army.
Notwithstanding the above, China has certain vulnerabilities which need to be exploited as and when situation demands. India, therefore must build the capabilities and strategic partnerships to exploit these vulnerabilities. Some of them are as given below:-
- Layered chain of islands around South China Sea can assist encirclement of China with the help of US and its allies.
- China is heavily dependent upon Malacca Strait for oil supplies from Gulf and the “Malacca predicament” exposes the soft belly of China. Denial of Malacca Strait to China will create major oil crisis during peace and war.
- Squeeze the strategic space in the Indian Ocean as part of coercive policy to limit the area of influence of China in the littoral zone.
- China has yet not acquired a blue water navy, therefore it is a daunting task for her to secure the strategic space in the Indian Ocean and ensure security of SLOC.
- Encircle the encirclement, meaning thereby that India needs to build strategic partnerships with the allies and also develop capabilities to project hard military power outside the encirclement (string of pearls). This will create vulnerability for China in IOR.
- Develop economic and military cooperation with regional players including Japan, South Korea, Vietnam and other countries of East Asia to checkmate China.
- The internal picture in China appears to be equally dismal.12 There is growing internal unrest and demand for democracy. The internal unrest is making Beijing jittery.
Well these vulnerabilities only exist in realm of abstract reality and can only be exploited if India can build superior or comparable indices of national power. Are we in a position to establish strategic partnership with the US and its allies to the extent that they come out in open to extend military support to India to tame China? Well, it is a matter of conjecture. We must not forget the fact that China is ahead of India in most indices of national power. We can only expect the support from allies if we are able to develop soft and hard military power capable of withstanding military and coercive policy of China. That can only happen if we are able to project national power beyond the international borders. To achieve that we have a long way to go but we must start now. Time is running out and we must take appropriate actions now. We must accelerate our economic growth, and build robust hard and soft power. The Indian Army needs to immediate undertake some force restructuring measures.
There is a case for creation of all terrain offensive forces and Rapid Reaction Forces (RRF) on the Russian and Chinese model. Chinese RRF is capable of mobilising with speed and can be moved over large distances in the shortest possible time. China has already got 15 RRF Divisions which can mobilise within 24 to 96 hours.
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