Geopolitics

Taliban set to takeover Pakistan
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Issue Vol. 29.2 Apr-Jun 2014 | Date : 17 Dec , 2014

In the near future, Taliban and Taliban like groups will impose Afghanistan type Taliban regime on Pakistan.

The civil war raging inside Pakistan in search of elusive ‘purity’ of philosophy is shrinking rapidly the space held by civil society. After expelling other religious minorities from Pakistan, the Islamic fundamentalists are determined to eliminate Ahamadias, cause heavy destruction of Shias and now the Ismailis. Anybody who does not confirm to extreme Wahhabi Sunni philosophy will be eliminated from the political canvas.

The dangerous divisive vote-bank politics within India in the last 10 years have created adequate groups of ‘sleeper cells’ and sufficient pockets of influence which are highly Talibanized in their thinking.

The elected civil government is in no position to take on the Jihad factory. Pakistan Army too is losing the war against the jihad factory. In fact, the Pakistan Army is so heavily infiltrated by Islamic fundamentalists that it stands fairly neutralized inside. In the coming years, it will be unable to dominate and maintain Pakistan’s territorial integrity, unless it joins hands with Taliban as a Talibanized Army.

Two trends are discernable inside Pakistan — first, as the Western Forces withdraw from Afghanistan, Taliban style militias will hold sway causing destruction of the elected government and the democratic institutions. Second, to maintain unity and focus within the different jihadi groups, attacks on India will be enhanced and enlarged.

The Jihad factory considers India as the next prize to be won to impose regressive laws like Sharia and Taliban style government. The dangerous divisive vote-bank politics within India in the last 10 years have created adequate groups of ‘sleeper cells’ and sufficient pockets of influence which are highly Talibanized in their thinking. The ‘soft target’ India appears to be ripe to become the largest sanctuary of the jihad factory in Asia in times to come.

Some of the politicians and the policy makers in India are unable to look beyond and visualize the dangers lurking in the vicinity of India. Many in India out of their so-called ‘liberal’ philosophy maintain that Pakistan or Afghanistan for that matter has a right to live and practice their beliefs, which includes imposition of extreme philosophies. While one respects the rights of the people to run their house with their beliefs even if they are regressive and out of sync with 21st century, the same ‘liberals’ forget that the Islamic fundamentalists are an expanding force based on ‘spoke and hub’ principle. They will export their philosophy ruthlessly to undermine India’s multicultural space and values. The jihad factory will expand, will export terrorism and is occupying sufficient destructive space inside India. India must gear up to grapple with the subversion that is creeping in.

At the initial stage, the Taliban game plan is based on the following:-

First, eliminate all opposition consisting of minorities or different sects of Islam.

In times to come, Pakistan will need assistance not only from the international community but as well from India.

Second, with withdrawal of the Western Forces, capture large territories to re-impose old Taliban regime inside Afghanistan. Imagine the havoc Taliban like regime from running from Afghanistan to Pakistan can cause in the neighbourhood.

Third, pretend talks and negotiations with the elected government in Islamabad, while at the same time undermine the democratic institutions, and the Pakistan Army. The Pakistan Army had to raise a special protection force of 25,000 personnel to guard its nuclear arsenal, lest they fall into the hands of Taliban.

In the subsequent phase, the Taliban strategy will be the following:-

Ensure takeover of entire Afghanistan and Pakistan.

To maintain unity between differing groups and to avoid inter-gang rivalry, task adequate groups to create mayhem inside India to unhook Kashmir, thereby providing external focus to the jihadis. The aim will be to begin the unraveling of India, and maintain unity between different groups of the jihad factory at the same time. The activation of Masood Azhar group is in this direction.

Similarly export Taliban like forces into resource rich Central Asia and put Russia under pressure.

The Nawaz Shariff government is likely to sink unless it joins hands and accepts harsh conditions being imposed by Taliban in Pakistan. In times to come, he will need assistance not only from the international community but as well from India. New Delhi is in deep slumber oblivious of the factor that to safeguard its own interests, it will have gear up to actively assist Pakistan in the near future.

This article was first published in IDR Apr-Jun 2014 (29.2) issue.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

Bharat Verma

A former Cavalry Officer and former Editor, Indian Defence Review (IDR), and author of the books, India Under Fire: Essays on National Security, Fault Lines and Indian Armed Forces.

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8 thoughts on “Taliban set to takeover Pakistan

  1. A well thought out article with incisive analysis on Talibanization of Pakistan and its likely outcome. Killings of few Talibani terrorists which is their own creation of Pakistani military, religious and political establishment will not solve the purpose. The great damage has been done by Pakistani political, religious and military establishments in distorting, framing, instilling and nurturing ideologies based on religion to promote terrorism for more than three decades and its repercussions have to be faced greatly by Pakistan, Afghanistan and to some extent by neighboring countries like India, Iran ,China (Xinxiang) etc. Unless and until these ideologies creating Islamic terrorism is killed or controlled by checking the spread of Wahabi Islam and promoting Sufi Islam which is full of love and compassion and hallmark of South Asian Islam, it will not resolve the issues, and such conflict will go in perpetuity more frequently and intensely and on larger geographical area. All the global leaders should come forward to eliminate this ideologies and sever the resources to these talibanis to kill this issue for ever.

  2. The biggest fraud of human history is(Hinduism) made by Brahmans .it means to force millions of poor people by hook or by cook> these monkeys and snakes and 9 legs and 7 heads idols are your gods means to keep people in dark wit tricks. These sect of India Brahmans follow same policy in politics and with other nations reflect in this essay.modi who killed more then 20000 women and men and children Muslims and rape is sad part of history cant even think in Pakistan. millions of people went and demolished mosque in India is impossible in Pakistan. we see Indians elected this man means Hindu terrorist and extremists. Pakistani people cant even think to elect any extremist party as whole in last 70 years. But blame on Pakistan.2nd>there are some criminals gangs where labeled Talban>RAw from Afghanistan are funding them with agenda go and attack on sri lank team. and attack on Pakistan hotels> Pakistan army 80% areas has cleared from this foreign proxies> no any chance of these gangs>

    • Can you prove Modi killed more then 20000 women and men and children Muslims and rape? What happened to minorities of Pakistan? Wasn’t Bhutto involved in the 3million genocide of Bangladeshi? Well the world biggest terrorist Muhammed in your prophet. Jinnah who called direct action day and noarkali riots is your hero. Well in pakistan everyone is extremist. Never heard of Hindi Terrorist and Extremist words in history ever. In india no party is extremist except MIM. Keep living on conspiracy theories.

      You have also not said what muslims are doing in India after creation of Pakistan.

    • islam is a barbaric religion which brings up fucktards like u…
      u and ur prohet can go to mofo hell …
      u want to kill all us kafirs ….and play the victim card…why was godhra train attacked in the first place…
      dare u to do something again in india ??
      pakistan and ur like wil be wiped out of this planet soon …along with ur prophet..dont even touch my religion u terrorist…enough with ur terrorism …when i will pick the gun …i will kill send all u jihadis to heaven myself…get lost u leach …snake idot ,,trashbag,,scum …
      whole world has had enough of ur extremeism .

      • I know after Modi become PM, all Pakistani are leaving in fear because he is capable to retiliate thier misdeeds.
        Hinduism can accept religious diversity but Islam is rigid. These Muslim people are so busy to do everything by the interpretation of mullahs that nowadays they don’t have any ideology. They didn’t have contributed in terms of science and other advancements. Because for all this you have to think deep, but they are busy thinking when they have to read next namaz.

        People who are Muslims are basically converted out fear. A person who is too much fearful is high on neuroticism. Therefore he will try to attack and will be suspicious even if someone talks about peace. You need to deal with them strictly , they just respond to punishment and love of allah. We can give them at least first thing.

  3. Bharat Verma should be more direct and candid. The first order of the business for the citizens of India is to vote the current incompetent leadership out of power. Pakistan and China regard them as lame ducks having very little sense of evolving geopolitical threat perception. It does not take a rocket science to understand the wolves at the doorsteps of India. Talibanization of Pakistan is rapidly manifesting into a threat aimed at the heart of Indian democracy. The Indian armed forces have their work cut. The Talibanization of Pakistan is not an unexpected and overnight happening. This nation was on a slide to radical religious pursuit about fifty years ago. This was by choice as their only strategy to prevent someday their nation dissolving into India. The development of Madrassah culture, the rabid obsession with Kashmir and targeting India as a Hindu Kaffir nation, is part of a grand strategy to keep Pakistanis away from the Indian democratic ideas of co-existence. How else can a Pakistani leader convince it’s citizens that India is an enemy of Pakistan and muslims, when India itself is the second largest Muslim state in the world?

    • A very well written article. It is certainly worrisome that we have failed to adequately appreciate the fall out of what is happening in our backyard . Unfortunately we’ve always had the most third rate leadership in this country and yet another Jai Chand will appear on the scene and let the Taliban in. Answer may possibly lie to let Chiefs of Staff Committee handle Defence without political interference and have meaningful association with Pakistan Army. I certainly visualise closer operational cooperation between the two armies as unless pushed from both sides , Taliban will not be contained or eliminated.

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