Geopolitics

China pre-empts India’s possible use of the Gilgit-Baltistan card
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By B Raman
Issue Net Edition | Date : 01 May , 2013

In an article in rediff.com of December 20, 2010, I had stated as follows:

“China, which had never openly questioned the Indian estimate of the length of the common border before, is now unilaterally seeking to exclude from consideration during the border talks the dispute between India and China over the Chinese occupation of a large territory in the Ladakh sector of J&K.

Beijing is seeking to impose a change in the ground situation that had prevailed since 1962 by unilaterally imposing a new perception of the LOAC which will expand Chinese claims to Indian territory in this area.

“In fact, it is seeking to question India’s locus standi to discuss with China the border in the J&K area in view of Pakistan’s claims to this area. It is trying to bring in Pakistan as an interested party in so far as the border talks regarding the western sector are concerned.

“It wants to change the format of the border talks in order to keep it confined bilaterally to the eastern and middle sectors and expand it to a trilateral issue involving India, China and Pakistan in the western sector.

“The exclusion of the border in the J&K sector from its estimate of the total length of the border is another indication that it does not recognise India’s claims of sovereignty over J&K.

“It is apparent that this is part of a well thought-out policy of unilaterally changing the ground rules of the border talks. It had earlier allegedly changed the ground rules in the eastern sector by going back on a prior understanding with Prime Minister Manmohan Singh that the border should be demarcated in such a manner as not to affect populated areas.

“It is now going back on its previous stand in the western sector by seeking to challenge India’s locus standi in view of its dispute with Pakistan.

“Even at the risk of a further delay in the exercise to solve the border dispute, India should not agree to any change in the ground rules which would restrict the border talks only to the eastern and middle sectors and exclude the western sector on the ground that India has a dispute over this area with Pakistan.”

India has strategic allies amongst the people of GB who could help it in making the Chinese presence costly. GB can provide India with the option of proxy activism in that area to make the Chinese pay for their repeated intrusions in the Ladakh area.

The Chinese manoeuvres to change the ground rules are reflected in the latest situation created by the People’s LiberationArmy (PLA) ( a platoon of it) in advancing 19 kms inside the hitherto perceived Line of Actual Control (LOAC) in the Dipsang area of Eastern Ladakh on April 15,2013, and staying put there in tents.

In the absence of any commonly accepted maps indicating a mutually accepted perception of the LOAC, the understanding as to where the LOAC lies largely depends on the differing individual perceptions of the two countries. While the Indian perceptions remain constant, the Chinese perceptions remain changing depending on its individual interest.

The Chinese assertion of claims of territorial sovereignty in the Eastern Ladakh area had in the past remained restricted to a few kms from the LOAC. For the first time now, it has unilaterally changed the perception by 19 kms. Whether the Chinese ultimately withdraw from this area or not, by this intrusion, Beijing is seeking to impose a change in the ground situation that had prevailed since 1962 by unilaterally imposing a new perception of the LOAC which will expand Chinese claims to Indian territory in this area.

At the same time, according to media reports that have not been questioned by the Government of India, the PLA is demanding India’s reversal of its reported re-activation of the advanced landing grounds at Daulat Beg Oldie, Fukche and Nyoma and suspension of India’s construction of temporary posts at Chumar and Fukche to provide shelters to patrolling Indian troops.

In one stroke, China is seeking to expand considerably the area over which it claims sovereignty and restrict or reduce the area over which India has been claiming sovereignty.

Why has China suddenly sought to activate sovereignty issues in this area and to change unilaterally hitherto accepted perceptions/claims of the LOAC? This area where the PLA has embarked on a policy of activism contrary to China’s proclamations of its interest in finding a peaceful solution to the border dispute and maintaining peace and tranquillity in the border areas has assumed importance for China in view of its proximity to the Karakoram area in the Gilgit-Baltistan area of Pakistan where the Chinese have stepped their construction activities and inducted Chinese protection troops to protect the construction teams with the acceptance of the Government of Pakistan, which has been in illegal occupation of Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (POK) and Gilgit-Baltistan (GB).

The Chinese are seeking to pre-empt possible Indian activism against Chinese presence and interests in the GB area by occupying new territory in Eastern Ladakh and keeping the Indian Army away from the vicinity of the Karakoram area.

If a confrontational situation develops between India and China, India will have two cards at its disposal— re-activate Tibet, which will be a difficult option or make the Chinese presence in GB prohibitively costly for China just as the US made the Soviet presence in Afghanistan bloody costly for the erstwhile USSR. The second is a doable option.

India looks upon POK and GB as an integral part of India. The Chinese presence in that area is a violation of India’s sovereignty claims. India has strategic allies amongst the people of GB who could help it in making the Chinese presence costly. GB can provide India with the option of proxy activism in that area to make the Chinese pay for their repeated intrusions in the Ladakh area.

The Chinese are seeking to pre-empt possible Indian activism against Chinese presence and interests in the GB area by occupying new territory in Eastern Ladakh and keeping the Indian Army away from the vicinity of the Karakoram area.

Whatever be the final outcome of the present stand-off, the Chinese manoeuvres to prevent India from possibly using the GB card against them will continue. We should not lose this card and should not legitimise the Chinese presence in the GB area. We have already lost the Tibet card by accepting Tibet in writing as an integral part of China. We should not lose the GB card by succumbing to the new Chinese pressure in the areas in the proximity of the Karakoram area.

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The views expressed are of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions or policies of the Indian Defence Review.

About the Author

B Raman

Former, Director, Institute for Topical Studies, Chennai & Additional Secretary, Cabinet Secretariat. He is the author of The Kaoboys of R&AW, A Terrorist State as a Frontline Ally,  INTELLIGENCE, PAST, PRESENT & FUTUREMumbai 26/11: A Day of Infamy and Terrorism: Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow.

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5 thoughts on “China pre-empts India’s possible use of the Gilgit-Baltistan card

  1. THE DHOTI LUNGI TOPI NETA ,BABU AND BUSINESSMEN ARE FALLING HEAD OVER HEELS TO PLEASE THE CHINESE . THE CHINESE ARE FEUDAL AND DESPISE THE WEAK. THE BIG DANDA IS WHAT THEY UNDERSTAND AS WAS APTLY CLEAR DURING 1967, SUMDORONG1984 BUILD UP AND VIETNAM . WHAT STOPS INDIA FROM DENOUNCING ONE CHINA POLICY , COUNTER INFILTERATION IN TIBET AND XINKIANG WHERE URGUR UPRISING IS RAISING ITS HEAD , WHAT STOPS DEPLOYMENT OFF AN OFFENSIVE CORPS FROM CUTTING AND TAKING OVER THE AKSAICHIN TIBET HIGHWAY AND ROAD. IF CHINA IS BUILDING THE STRING OF PEARLS WHAT STOPS US FROM JOINING HANDS WITH VIETNAM INDONESIA , PHILLIPENES , JAPAN AND AMERICA . POSITION COMBAT TROOPS FIGHTERS IN CENTRAL ASIAN REPUBLICS AND GIVE BACK IN THE SAME COIN . AS LONG AS DYNASTIC POLITICS IS PLAYED IN INDIA TO PROTECT THE HANDSOME YOUNG RAHUL, HIS MOTHER AND SISTER THE NATION PAYS THE PRICE BY A SIYANA SARDAR MEEKLY , TIMIDLY PLAYING ELDERLY GRANDFATHER POLICIES TO PLEASE THE CHINESE IN THEIR QUEST TO HUMILATE INDIA AND TEACH HER A LESSON THROUGH PAKISTAN AND ITS JIHADI ELEMENTS .

  2. China is an export driven economy.
    our government put some trade restrictions on import of non essential goods ,
    1. last year we imported 1500 cr worth of fruits itself.
    2. Now a days traders of india like import paper, pen, silk, kerchief, toys,etc from china
    3. I think this is the ultimate solution
    4. Then chinese aggression come down

  3. “which will be a difficult option or make the Chinese presence in GB prohibitively costly for China just as the US made the Soviet presence in Afghanistan bloody costly for the erstwhile USSR. The second is a doable option”

    Third option on the economic front. China is still an export driven economy. Impose trade sanctions on them. There economy will take a hit which will reverberate internationally. This will highlight the situation of Chinese violations in GB.
    Simultaneously go on diplomatic offensive to isolate the Chinese – like Pak was isolated diplomatically during Kargil.

    This will also force US to choose sides clearly.
    This diplomatic situation places us firmly alongside Japan and others in that region and makes out the Chinese as unreliable and troublemaking people.

    Then force them to make concessions in GB and Aksai Chin , by using Economic Brinkmanship

    Watch the Chinese lobby in India while this happens

  4. One option is to Increase the restrictions on Chinese business and trade.
    China is an export driven economy.
    That plus coordinate with South East Asian countries on the same. Talk with them peace , be ready for war – both Economic and actual physical.

    1) immediate increase in restrictions on Chinese Trade will immediately put them on guard.
    2) it will affect the Hong Kong StockExchange which will immediately go into red. This way we can announce ourselves as a truly formidable Economic power.
    3) International diplomatic offensive must follow parallelly ( like during Kargil) to isolate China .
    4) HongKong Stock Exhange in the Red for a couple of weeks and the west will start feeling the pinch and fall behind us.
    5) Parallelly mobilise the troops on the nothern Sector, both Ladhak and Arunanchal

    These are but a few steps that need to be taken immediately to rebound this situation and give China a blood nose – reputationwise.

    remember this is only Round 1 even if they do go back.
    Strengthen your claims.
    harrass them on Blue Seas,

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