Indian Defence Review

Exercising the Hard Option against Pakistan

The ‘Hard Option’ against Pakistan should be exercised only in very exceptional circumstances and when there is full support of public opinion in India. Such Hard Option should be exercised against Pakistan’s ‘Centre of Gravity’ (COG) which may be defined as the support on which Pakistan’s power rests. This should be its critical vulnerability which if downgraded will cause the melting of resistance, will and strength. The most obvious COG factor in Pakistan is the Army. Military power is located NOT in the Army itself but in its Foundations i.e. the things that support it and make it possible to be a strong functional entity such as finances, logistics, public support and political allies. It is axiomatic that what holds up one’s enemy can also make it fall, if the supporting foundation is steadily weakened. We must therefore re-examine:

• What makes the Pakistan Army move? Its Command and Control set up are its nerves. This must be immobilised and targeted at the onset.
• What gives the Pakistan Army its impetus and endurance? This is mainly its Artillery Arm. Therefore, we must attain the resources to silence the Pakistani Artillery within 72 hours.
• Who guides the Pakistan Army’s Actions? This is its Strategic Plans Division (SPD). We must ensure that every Action initiated by the SPD ends up as a misadventure and causes loss of promotion and career advancement to the Generals manning this Branch.
• Fathoming the Pakistani Army’s psychology and unchanging priorities. These have to be subverted and made to feel worthless, so that they do not tick.
• Figuring out how to undermine the Pakistani Army’s strength without having to hit it head on. This could be accomplished using material, physical and psychological means.

The other important COGs of lesser importance which also need to be degraded are:

• Pakistan’s anti Hind Ideology. This can be brought to ridicule if the economic prosperity of Indian Muslims can be improved to levels better than that of those in Pakistan.
• Pakistan’s False Sense of Superiority Complex. This can be allowed to trigger lack of self-confidence, if India’s GDP growth surges ahead of Pakistan. Also by improving our relations and co-operation with Afghanistan and Iran to a very high degree.
• Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal. This can be made to feel like a liability by spreading disinformation about clandestine transfers to dangerous third parties, and by constantly creating fear psychosis in the higher Pakistani military leadership about Israeli-Indian-US collusion to pre-emptively degrade it and plant reports about dry runs being carried out.
• Sino-Pak relations. Spread the canard in the Islamic World about Pakistan’s active support to China to silence the acts of revolt by the Islamic Uighurs vs the ‘Pig eaters’.

Violations on Jammu and Kashmir Border

Indian policymakers need to seriously examine and find solutions to put an end to the Cross Border Firing Incidents initiated by the Pakistani Army whenever it wants to embarrass its political leadership and hinder Indo-Pak relations from improving. There is a strategy required to be put in place to rein in the Pakistani Army. We must therefore examine:

Addressing Pakistan’s Vulnerabilities

These options are mainly:

• Accelerate breakdown of Shimla Agreement restraints. Without declaring unilateral cancellation of the LC, opportunistically push across selectively wherever violations occur. Can India dare to play this ‘Pak’ type game with China for example, and hope to get away?
• ‘Israeli’ type response to Pakistani violations. Escalation measures to include massive and quick Artillery and Air neutralisation of Pakistani posts, administrative bases and HQs.
• Deliberately violate ‘Indus Waters Treaty’ stipulations in retaliation to LC violations.
• Actively encourage and equip anti-Pakistani Army elements operating within Pakistan.
• India should retaliate with similar gross violations across the IB in adjacent areas of Punjab in Pakistan. Make the costs and repercussions of any LC and IB violations prohibitive.

Active Response Measures

• Create de facto DMZ across Indian-held territory wherever violations occur.
• Deliberately target Pakistani civilian population centres and force their evacuation.
• Launch surprise nocturnal drone attacks on attractive targets across the LC and IB.
• Carry out targeted killings. Plant IEDs in depth. Do not spare ‘soft targets’.
• Sabotage communication links, development activities and administrative HQs.

Aims of Indian Countermeasures

Important aspects to be borne in mind should be:

• Create ‘Fear’ and ‘Caution’ in the mind of the enemy without letting him have respite – round the clock, weeks on end, and bash on until he sues for peace and sticks to his word.
• Do not allow LC violations from sliding into a war which we have not planned for.

Conclusion

Niccolo Machiavelli was certainly a man far ahead of his times. It takes great courage, independent analysis and thinking without fetters, to question the wisdom of that age and prove the great ancient Greek and Roman thinkers and scholars of statecraft wrong, as far as the duties of Kings and Rulers are concerned. He established that Statecraft, like Economics, is secular and has no ethics, and it is not bound by rules except the sole criteria that the party which applies the different weightings to the many contributing factors should vary these according to the existing circumstances to get the optimum favourable result. So there are no fixed formulae, to obtain the best results.

Niccolo had said that while dealing with other States, if there cannot be good relations, it is better to remain feared! Niccolo’s ardent followers included Cardinal Richelieu of France who was the First Minister to King Louis XIII, Thomas Cromwell, the Prime Minister of England, Klemens von Metternich of Austria who caused the downfall of Napolean by planting in his mind the idea of invading Russia and who later on perfected the ‘Balance of Powers’ arrangement which brought lasting peace and unprecedented prosperity in Europe during the 19th century, and Henry Kissinger who schemed the break-up of the Soviet colossus. But none acknowledged their admiration for Machiavelli so as to guard their reputation!

Chairman Mao was once having an informal chat with Liu Shao Chi (President) and Zhou En Lai (Premier). Mao jokingly asked, “How would you make a cat eat pepper?” Liu spoke promptly, “That’s easy. You get somebody to hold the cat, stuff the pepper in its mouth, and push it down with a chopstick.” Mao replied, “Never use force unless there is no other way.” Zhou suggested, “I would first starve the cat. Then I would wrap the pepper with a slice of meat and feed it.” Mao interjected, “One must not use deceit either, when it is not required.” On being queried what the Chairman would do, he replied, “Easy, you rub the pepper thoroughly into the cat’s backside. When it burns, the cat will lick it off – and be also happy that you have let it do so!” After all had laughed, the wise Chairman continued, “…That is how I want China’s foreign relations to be conducted.”