Indian Defence Review

Introduction

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is the most aggressive Armed Force in the world today. It is an instrument in the hands of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and is not answerable to the Govt¹. It gets it directions from the CCP’s Politburo, which are thereafter discussed and endorsed by the Central Military Commission (CMC) of the CCP, after detailed planning and feasibility have been examined. The important decisions of the Politburo are itself discussed and taken by a “Core Sub-Committee” consisting of the Chairman, the Prime Minister, the CCP’s Disciplinary Commission In Charge, the Finance Minister, and two other Senior Members. It must be understood that any happenings on the India-China border occur only after detailed secret examination and discussions, at the highest levels of the Chinese political leadership. Therefore, the Chinese are never surprised!

With the structural and organizational modernization of the PLA into Theatre Commands, India has to mainly deal with the Western Theatre Command (WTC), whose HQ is located at Chengdu in Szechuan (Sichuan) Province. It is headed by Gen Wang Haijiang a Sichuanese who had served in both the Xinjiang (Region)& Tibet (Region) Military Districts as their Commander/ Deputy Commander. The constitution of standing Forces in these Military Districts are²:-

The above Forces do not include the additional ‘Surge -capacity’ formations which can be moved from WTC resources in case of a full-scale conflict, subject to logistics limitations/constraints.

No country has ever lifted more people out of poverty, as China has done over the last four decades³! The Chinese economy is today 76% the size of the US economy! Its GDP is five times that of India! Its ‘property sector’ accounts for nearly 30% of its GDP. The Chinese leadership however seems willing to sacrifice “growth” for political and economic stability, and appears to be willing to settle for ~3%+ average annual economic growth, over the next decade. Today it has nearly 30% of the global share of manufacturing, and 20% share of global exports of manufactured goods. 70% of its exports are made by local companies. The Chinese have over the last two decades invested heavily in Basic Scientific Research, overhauled their University System to promote innovation and publication of original research papers, developed the lead position in emerging technologies like electric vehicles, renewable/green energy sources, 5G, High Speed Maglev trains etc. China has become the largest exporter of cars in the world displacing Japan and Germany. Over the next decade it intends to achieve mastery of high-end sub 5 nano-meter thickness graphics-processing chip design too. It is able to invest in other countries more than any other rival. Chinese average double-digit growth achieved over the last two decades has made it an economic powerhouse and miracle. China has twice the weight of India in the emerging markets indices. Therefore, both productivity and ease of doing business has to further improve in India urgently, to let us follow China’s trajectory. Without sounding pessimistic the above glowing picture of China should not deter us, due to the following reasons:-

• • Chinese growth is lop-sided and concentrated on its eastern seaboard upto a depth of 100 kms. This has caused massive population migrations in search of jobs, which is an ‘unsettling’ reality.
  • Chinese fancy for mega-projects in order to boost its image and international standing, does not always make economic sense. Largescale costly over-capacity building, has taken place as a result.
  • Chinese manufacturing growth has been driven using high degree of Debt-dependent financing, and is dangerously dependent on exports. Both these are unpredictable ‘drivers’ in the long run.
  • The Chinese have excelled in the art of ‘Losing Friends and Acting like a Hegemon’, in its neighbourhood. Their heavy-handed dealings in the South China Sea, Indian borders etc, have often boomeranged.
  • China has dealt ruthlessly with its non-Han populations, be they in Xinjiang, or in Tibet; and this has caused a reservoir of great resentment to build up in these areas.
  • CCP Bosses have increasingly fallen victims to large-scale corruption and cronyism. The day Central authority in China weakens, there will be sure-shot possibility of ‘chaos’ setting in quickly.
  • The Chinese military has increasingly emerged as a potential power-centre to challenge the CCP, however hard the present leadership has tried to arrest this trend. Loyalty to the CCP has declined.
  • 80% of China’s military might has to be kept ready to ward off the US Threat. India has to deal with part of the balance of Force that can be applied from the hostile geographies of Tibet & Xinjiang.

Maximum Force Levels that can be Applied by China, in the Event of a Conflict with India⁴

 Evaluating the PLA Naval Threat

The Chinese Navy has been carrying out the greatest expansion of Naval Power in the world, since the days of US President Theodore Roosevelt! China has already implemented an effective strategy of Naval deterrence by forcing the US Carrier Groups to keep 3000 kms safe distance from China’s Eastern seaboard, using a combination of ‘Dong Feng-26B’ precision-strike strategic missiles and 100-strong swarms of fighters/bombers led by the 4^th generation ‘FC-1 Xiaolong’ jets. But what should worry Indian military planners, is the Chinese ability to send two Brigade-sized Marine Expeditionary Force Groups, escorted by two Carrier Battle Groups to the Indian Ocean area. In addition, the Chinese Navy have the capability to deploy a screen of nearly 20 conventional submarines to ward off any naval threats to this Expeditionary Force for upto a distance of 500 kms. These Force Groupings have recently come up at Sanya, in Hainan Island off China’s coast.

If India does not swiftly develop the strategic Car Nicobar Island Base to a capacity to effectively neutralize this threat, it would be a costly mistake, which would suddenly expose India’s Eastern seaboard to a multiplicity of threats. This Base serves the purpose of a large floating Carrier Group and Marine Expeditionary Force, guarding the Eastern Entry to the Indian Ocean area.Who can forget “Operation ‘C’ carried out by the Imperial Japanese Navy from 31 March 1942 to 10 April 1942?⁵ Admiral Chuichi Nagumo struck at the British Naval Bases in Ceylon & Vizag areas after the capture of the Andaman & Nicobar Islands by 23 March 1942. The British heavy cruisers Dorsetshire and Cornwall were sunk South West of Ceylonaboutthe noon of 5^th April 1942, and three other ships were sunk at Colombo harbour during an early morning raid carried out by 120 Japanese Fleet Air Arm aircrafts.On 9^th April 1942, Trincomalee Harbour was crippled by a Japanese Strike Group consisting of 132 aircrafts. The British aircraft carrier Hermes,destroyer-escort Vampire and four other ships were spotted off Batticaloa and were sunk by a force of 80 carrier-borne strike-aircrafts. The bulk of the British Eastern Fleet which included another two aircraft carriers which had been kept hidden at Port ‘T’ in the Addu Atoll South of Maldives, were soon ordered by their Flag Officer Admiral James Somerville to shift to Kilindini Port (Mombasa) in Kenya, East Africa! The whole expanse of the Indian Ocean was left wide open to the Japanese, to dominate. It was expected that the Japanese would follow up their successful Naval actions by capturing Ceylon, and thereby cut off reinforcements route to India & Australia. But the “Doolittle Air Raid” on Tokyo which was launched during this same period changed Japanese priorities, and Nagumo’s Naval Force of five carriers carrying the First Air Fleet of Pearl Harbour-fame, was called back to the Western Pacific.

The above is a useful corollary of what all could happen if India loses the Andaman & Nicobar Islands by a surprise assault to the PLA Navy, coordinated with a Border offensive! No country today returns any captured territories. Israel and Russia are prime examples. And China is on the look-out for such opportunities in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean Area, to secure its energy supplies.

Indian Reading of the Chinese Threat

The Chinese Communist Party is following the same tactics and policies of the pre-WW II Japanese Regime⁶. It will stage ‘Incidents’ and use it as a pretext to grab what it wants. Jawahar Nehru had good relations with Generalissimo Chiang Kai Sheik of the KMT regime in China, and so he anticipated no problems on the Indo-Tibet & Indo-Sinkiang frontier regions which could not be solved by dialogue in the future, after India became free. But WW II had exhausted the KMT regime whereas the Communists (CCP) under Mao Tse Tung had wisely conserved and built up their strength, by avoiding conflict with the Imperial Japanese forces! After WW II when the KMT Regime expanded its hold on the rest of China, it became very vulnerable and extended. Its regional military ‘Satraps’ and Party officials also became corrupt and lax. On Mao Tse Tung’s orders, Gen Lin Piao unleashed the Communist Forces in mid 1948, and cut off the KMT Forces deployed in the resource-rich and industrially developed Manchuria. After protracted fighting which involved lakhs of civilian casualties due to starvation and deprivation, the Communist Forces unexpectedly triumphed. This led to a ‘Domino Effect’, and the next to fall was the region of Beijing-Tianjin-Qingdao. This was followed by all Provinces North of the Huang He (Yellow River). Momentum was on the side of the CCP Forces and they soon struck across the Huang He towards Shanghai and the Provinces North of the Yangtze River. Whole KMT Armies meekly changed sides, as they had lost the ‘will to fight’, and thought that they would surely lose if they did fight! On 1^st October 1949 the People’s Republic of China became a reality after the KMT were ousted from the Chinese Mainland. The Communists inherited all the pretensions of the Imperial Manchu Dynasty. They had hatred and contempt for Nehru, whom they considered as a militarily weak leader and ex-friend of Chiang Kai Sheik. In the decade that followed, a series of strategic blunders were committed by Nehru, primary amongst them being “not militarily strengthening the India-China Border”.

The Chinese Tactics followed during the 1962 India-China War closely resembled the tactics of the Japanese General Yamashita during the disastrous for the British – Malayan Campaign of 1941-42⁵. The Japanese Forces had then attacked with speed during the rainy season, bypassingcentres of strong resistance and establishing numerous Blocks behind the Frontline; and thereafter they launched strong annihilation Attacks till the British Forces’ Defences crumbled. Thereafter the British were in an unending  ‘Race’ to withdraw on the slightest pretext, and occupy the next Defensive Line, without ever endeavouring to give proper battle and stop the Enemy Advance. The same thing repeatedly happened to the Indian Forces in NEFA, during the 1962 War. Psychologically, the Troops had lost the ‘Will to Fight’ and the ‘Will to Win’! Counter Attacks were always launched with inadequate Forces and abysmal (artillery) fire-support, which totally guaranteed “Failure”. This in turn caused further demoralization amongst our Troops. On the logistical front too, our preparations and equipping of the Troops to meet their Tasks was abominable. Such a sorry state of affairs should never be allowed to repeat.

Remedying Our Organizational Deficiencies

Why close the ‘Augean Stables’ after the horses have fled? This tendency to only “Learn from Mistakes”, should be put to an end immediately. One of the prime reasons for this fatal weakness is the ‘Bookish Outlook’ of our senior military commanders. Whereas this serves an excellent purpose for Staff Officers, it is the duty of our Senior Commanders to ‘outwit the Opponent’, make him wrongly read your Intent, and take calculated Risks to attain one’s Objectives by ensuring Momentum and Continuous Offensive Actions,within the capabilities of the formations under your command. Mistakes made and miscalculations done on the way, because of taking the Initiative always get brushed away if the Final Results are favourable. They also add to the element of ‘Unpredictability’ to your Actions, in the Enemy Commander’s mind.

A prime example is the Indian Army’s Divisional Organisation for effectively fighting in the Mountains. We need torevise our Divisional Organisation every five years as the US Army does, based on evolving threats and technological advances.The following Issues need to beaddressed:-

• Why isn’t there a suitable Mechanised Forces Unit in our Mountain Divisions?
• Why hasn’t an integral Air Defence (AD) Unit not been authorized to our Mountain Division? If the Requirement is there to have an additional AD Unit too to address the threat from Enemy Strike Drones, why hasn’t the same been incorporated?
• Pioneers play an important role during any War in the Mountains. Why hasn’t a Pioneer Company not been authorized to a Mountain Div? They also become the ‘nucleus’ to hire additional Local Labour, during War-time.
• The requirement for Surveillance, Early Warning and Linguistic Skills of the population on the Other Side/Enemy Troops is badly lacking at present. Therefore,having an ‘Intelligence, Surveillance and Strike Unit’ at the Division level is a must. It should have Drones for surveillance actions and for ‘Immediate Strike’/Actionable Intelligence purposes. It should have Enemy Electronic spectrum monitoring capabilities. It should have linguists of the languages,of the Enemy Side.
• During bad weather etc helicopters are never able to operate. Offensive actions conducted by our Troops need to be sustained even during such times. Therefore, there is the vital need to re-introduce an Animal Transport Unit to our Mountain Divisions, even if they be of smaller scale.
• Special Missions have to be conducted during both Offensive & Defensive Operations, especially to support the Main Effort. This calls for having a separate ‘Scouts Battalion’ in the Organisational Table of the Mountain Division.
• Infantry Battalion needs to have a fifth Company to guard its Administration Base, in the Mountains. This should ideally come from a locally raised Territorial Army Company, having locals.
• The Infantry Brigade Organisation needs to be further strengthened and should switch to the “Combined Arms& Services” model, ab-initio.

What are the ‘Strongpoints’ and ‘Inadequacies’ in the Chinese Way of Warfighting and Tactics?

A close study of the Korean Campaign 1950-53, Sino-Indian Border Conflict 1962 and the Chinese Invasion of Vietnam 1979 reveals certain peculiar strengths and weaknesses of the Chinese Military System, while at War. Much improvements have taken place over the last two decades, which are primarily aimed at countering the ‘US Might’ during the forthcoming Campaign to annex Taiwan. This is a Chinese national aspiration of sorts! Their Strongpoints can be summed up, as follows:-

• Absolute secrecy in National War Planning. Deliberate actions are usually planned six months in advance, and necessary Staff Checks carried out, discussions about the Methodology done at every level in fine detail, thorough Rehearsals carried out, and necessary logistics arranged covertly.
• Integration of All Services in War-Planning and Execution. A detailed Propaganda Offensive is also worked out to justify the CCP’s actions to the domestic audience, confuse the population of the Attacked Country, and to justify theiraggression to the naive World audience.
• Chinese Forces always ensure ‘momentum’ to their Operations. Engineer resources required are properly worked out, and staged forward. Labour Battalions are always at hand for road construction work and to shift stores forward, where the road-head ceases. Their welfare too is always properly addressed.
• Chinese commanders always ensure preponderance of numerical and materiel superiority when they attack an Objective. This way they ensure definite success at the first time itself, and thereby demoralize the Defenders about the inevitability of their Defeat in subsequent Battles.
• The Chinese are the Masters of fighting ‘Limited Wars’. This way, they ensure by swift actions the effective discrediting of the political and military leadership of their Opponent Nation, in the eyes of their own population. The conduct of the CCP Forces with the civilian population of their Opponent Nation with whom they come in contact,has always been exemplary. Special Party Cadres are nominated for carrying out Quick Indoctrination Sessions separately for the Men, Women and the Youth. This has always had a lasting impact, even long after the Chinese have left!

Inadequacies in the Chinese Way of Warfighting can be summed up as follows:-

• Chinese Troops are specially vulnerable in case of a ‘logistics breakdown’. They lose heart fast.
• If their ‘First Attack’ does not succeed, thereafter the Commissars and Commanders find it very difficult to restore the fighting spirit of the Troops.
• We must understand that the Chinese military that we face,are mainly manned by conscripts from Szechuan and Gansu Provinces. They are more interested in completing their 5 Years Service!
• The Chinese commanders get unnerved, if they are faced with a ‘Quick Counter-Offensive’. They cannot quickly contemplate the actions to be taken if things don’t work as per their Plan.
• The rigidity of the CCP structure causes a ‘blame-game’ to take place if military Plans do not succeed. A witch-hunt gets launched to make ‘scape-goats’ of the military commanders involved!

What India Needs to Do to Defeat Chinese Plans, in the Event of a Conflict?

At the political level it must be understood that China is NOT a democracy. So, the will of the Supreme Leader will be implemented without worrying about any backlash at the next General Elections. The CCP’s highest Leadership Echelon has been able to orchestrate decisions, based on the Use of Force or Otherwise to suit China’s ambitions to firstly become the “Big Hegemon” of Asia and secondly gain recognition as the Emerging World Superpower. The Chinese have great contempt for India not only because they are a superior military Power but also because of the vast economic transformation effected over the last four decades due to the adoption of Deng Xiao Peng’s farsighted capitalism-oriented policies, and practical initiatives to transfer the US’ manufacturing capacity to China at lesser cost and greater efficiency. If China attacks India, the rest of the World will only look the other way, as their prime strategic interests do not get adversely affected, and a protracted War will only help to slow China’s galloping growth.

If our military planners assume that a War with China is inevitable and prepare accordingly, then the actual chances of a War happening will be slim indeed. Whatever one may say, it is a truism that Communist China respects strength. Otherwise, it would have certainly made efforts to get back control of vast stretches of Siberia ceded to Tsarist Russia, which now has been discovered to hold vast petroleum and mineral resources. Asimilar attitude vis-à-vis the United States can also be expected for a long time. Indian planners should specifically implement the followingmeasures:-

• • Maintain maximum deployment and surveillance of the Border Areas, all year round.
  • Improve roads and infrastructure in the Border Areas, and throw them open both to Domestic & International Tourists. This will help the local population to earn more.
  • The ITBP needs to be further strengthened and equipped, in order to match the Chinese.
  • The Drone capability of the Chinese have to be matched with a serious endeavour. Our tactics to negate the Chinese Drones capability should match the best global standards in this field.
  • The Chinese employing military Forces violating the territory of our Himalayan neighbours, should not come as a surprise. Suitable countermeasures should be put in place.
  • Maximum hydroelectric potential of the Himalayan region should be developed. This will help economic development of the Border regions, and improve the road network there.
  • Full-scale Defence Exercises should be conducted every three years, on the scale of “Op Checker-Board”.
  • Proportion of Mounted Artillery Resources (wheeled & tracked) should increase to 33 %.
  • Matching Response should be quickly given to every Provocation, and authority delegated.
  • Indian Troops’ shelters should be made NBCW-proof.
  • “Rapid Deployment Force” (RDF) Groupings should be created in every Corps Zone, and necessary heli-lift capability augmented. These Forces must be kept acclimatized and op-ready.

Conclusion

An estimate of the Force Groupings required to ward off the Chinese Threat is given below:-

The Air Force will have to learn to operate closely with the Land Forces Groupings. To ensure this, there should be a dedicated Forward Air Controller Team deployed with each Infantry Battalion which is deployed in contact with the Enemy. If there is a ‘serious’ violation of the Line of Actual Control, Air Strikes should be launched even before artillery fire support is called for. This will convey the right message to the adversary at the onsetitself, as to how serious the Indian response is going to be!  This will call off the Chinese ‘Bluff’, unless their intention is to have an all-out War.

In dealing with the Chinese, the ‘mind-game’ is very important. No opportunity should be lost to convey the message that Indian Forces will operate in close cooperation with Japan, Australia, Vietnam and the United States etcto blunt Chinese imperialistic designs, and efforts to brow-beat other Nations in its neighbourhood. While trade with China is very important, India should retain the capacity to choke China’s energy imports. This is China’s ‘Achilles Heel’.

Indian Forces have to unwaveringly learn to implement the Lesson of ‘Concentration of Force’ at the critical Battlefront(s), in order to deny any local victories to the Chinese. There should be strongly-held Positions ab-initio in Depth along critical Enemy Thrust Lines, and also a Secondary Defence Line which is prepared before-hand, rehearsed, and occupied in time. Strong Counter-Offensives have to be launched simultaneously in weakly held Enemy Sectors, to create deterrence. It must be decisively proved that the Chinese can be defeated, should a War be thrust upon us. There is no escape from the realities of our geography and history, and we must all apply our heads!

References :-

1. CIA Fact Book on China.decisively
2. Article dated Dec 08, 2020: China Reinforces Tibet with Military Installations, refer https://www.aninews.in/news/world/asia/china-reinforces-tibet-with-military-installations20201208210637/?amp=1
3. 3.Article dated 5^th Dec, 2023: Has China Peaked? by Akash Prakash, www.business-standard.com
4. Article: Xinjiang Military Command, refer https://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/china/mc-xinjiang.htm
5. Maj Gen S Woodburn Kirby & Team: History of the Second World War, The War Against Japan – Volumes I &II, Her Britannic Majesty’s Stationery Office, 1958.
6. Robert D Kaplan: Book The Revenge of Geography, Random House, New York, 2012.