Indian Defence Review

Machiavelli’s Thoughts in Dealings with China

China is a neighbouring power which should be taken very seriously. It is following a single-minded policy of growth and technological development, so that it becomes a superpower on par with the USA by 2030. China’s great strengths are political unity, exceptional diplomatic skills, ability to implement planned growth surpassing targets, ability to control population growth, higher education, research excellence and hunger for economic prosperity of its people.

At the same time, China also has inherent serious weaknesses which are external hydrocarbon sources dependency, entrenched corruption at all levels, disinclination for original thinking, over confidence, lack of capacity to adjust with powerful neighbours due to hegemonistic mindset of its leadership and the fundamental flaw that its economy is exports dependent and not internal consumption driven. Its GDP growth is powered by borrowed capital and foreign investments in the manufacturing sector. But the prevalent conditions of stability will easily last till 2020. During this period, China will deepen its hold on Tibet by enhancing road and rail connectivity with Sichuan province and provide more economic incentives for Hans to settle in Tibet’s urban areas. The fundamental drivers of India’s China policy should, therefore, be:

• India cannot aggressively tackle China unless the ‘Pakistan’ problem is first solved. We should have a secure flank. Therefore, we must continue to buy time by extending negotiations while simultaneously improving our high altitude and mountain warfare capabilities. A border agreement should not be our prime concern; maintaining peace on the Line of Actual Control should. An unsettled border will be against China’s interests in the long run and give us more options.
• India must not give any false promises to the Tibetans which it cannot realistically fulfil. Religious affinity, sympathy and humanistic ideals are one thing but peace and a working arrangement of trade and economic co-operation with China is more important. Presently, Tibet and Xinjiang are economic burdens on China and India should let the status quo be.

• India does not have any permanent anti-China interests. Therefore, trade with China must be boosted and business investments stepped up there. India has to learn to cultivate Chinese public opinion favourably and imbibe their best practices.

• The best way to counter China’s deliberate policy of creating irritants along the border is to maintain maximum restraint and reciprocate using propaganda tools such as issuing ‘on the spot’ tourist visas, and offering ‘conducted tour’ to the nearest Indian city for ‘guests’ who arrive without notice. Provocative actions by China are meant to satisfy the conservatives in its Politburo and Central Military Commission.
• China’s policy of issuing ‘stapled visas’ to people of Arunachal Pradesh can be countered by extending the facilities offered to ‘People of Indian Origin’ to Tibetans also. Some amount of ‘crossover’ support always exists to people living in frontier areas.
• Improve close military ties with the nations that can stand up to China. This includes Russia, Japan, USA, Vietnam and Australia. At the same time, talk of ‘alliance’ may be avoided and such relations should preferably be on bilateral basis.
• Drastically improve India’s capability in communications and satellite-based intelligence and information gathering of the Tibetan and adjacent Chinese regions almost on par with the NSA of the USA.
• Fight Chinese influence in Pakistan, Nepal, and Burma frontally. These are traditional domains where India’s friendly influence has to be permanent and paramount. India must follow an active policy to sow dissent amongst those who court China in these countries, as well as step up her positive levers of influence and friendship.
• Encourage Chinese tourists, youth, and academicians to visit and stay in India. Follow an open door and facilitating policy through the length and breadth of the country for Chinese investors. This investment in human capital will work in India’s favour.

Confucius had said that, “One needs to review the Past before one decides to take on the Future.” China is going through a period of ‘strategic opportunity’. It therefore follows a deliberate policy of intimidation of its less powerful neighbours, by showing belligerence in South China Sea and in Ladakh. China respects strength; therefore, for fear of Russia, it dares not to ‘eye’ Mongolia like it did ‘Tibet’ and ‘East Turkistan’.

Dealing with Pakistan to Achieve Strategic India 2020

Due to a common history and shared bloody struggle, emotions are involved and so, Pakistan is a very complex problem. It is difficult to differentiate between the Muslims of India and the Muslims of Pakistan. The fate of Pakistani Muslims is similar to that of the Kurds, who are divided between Turkey, Iraq and Iran with little chance of unification. India’s successful domestic and external policies have made it the most ‘Muslims friendly’ nation on earth, save for the aberration of our relations with Pakistan. Pakistan’s foreign policy and relations with India are dictated by its military, which sees no gain in its self interest and the raison d’etre if problems between the two countries get solved by political dialogue. Therefore, under the existing conditions, even while feigning that it is keen on negotiations India must concede nothing, as each advantage gained will be subsequently exploited by the military in Pakistan.

India must create conditions whereby Pakistan is forced to incur an unaffordable defence budget which will cement the foundation for social chaos and economic difficulties there. The Pakistan military establishment may then become the object of resentment of the people there. India must, therefore, resist all temptation to overreact to the provocations of the Pakistani Army, which can be expected on a continuous basis as every military chief there wants to prove that he is a greater ‘India hater’ than all his predecessors.

By deliberately under-reacting, the Pakistani Army does not become the rallying point of the people there, and it will steadily get undermined in due course. India must be aware of the game the military there is playing in Jammu and Kashmir and address its vulnerabilities. In the long run, Pakistan cannot be dealt with effectively only by military confrontation. Its people need to be awakened from the slumber of being swayed by a false ideology and slipping into the status of a ‘Failed State’ where anarchy prevails and medieval age minded fanatics take away the liberties of the people.

The battle for winning the minds of the Pakistanis has to be won by a well-directed and subtle Indian propaganda offensive. Pakistan is to India what the self-centred ‘Habsburg’ rulers of Austria were to Germany in the 19th century – always obstructing its efforts by forging hostile alliances, even though the people of both States had so much in common. Pakistan’s policy makers are in a state of blissful ignorance not realising that their actual long term threat will emerge from their Western borders sooner than later. India should also exploit its ‘soft power’ while dealing with Pakistan in the following manner, reminiscent of German Chancellor Willy Brandt’s Ostpolitik which ultimately led to the breaking down of the Berlin Wall; in order to bring about the desired changes:

• Unilaterally grant ‘Most Favoured Nation’ status to Pakistan in trade. How does it matter if we can get better materials and products from an ‘enemy State’, if it is at a competitive international price? The benefits to the economy of Pakistan will be offset by building up a pro-India business lobby in Pakistan to counter the ‘India Bashers’.

• Grant Tourist Visas on arrival to Pakistanis unilaterally. Better people to people contacts will work in India’s favour. But, in the event of a serious LC violation, a temporary ban should be placed on all teams for sports and entertainment from Pakistan .
• Improve road and rail connectivity with Pakistan through all the border states and in Jammu, Kashmir and Kargil. Goods should keep crossing the border even if people do not. Trade should grow by at least 20 per cent annually.
• Grant 100,000 scholarships to Pakistani students and academics to study or carry out research in India. Grant work permits to Pakistani professionals and University teachers to work in India.
• Treat prominent Pak clerics, journalists, jurists, and retired military opinion makers as ‘State Guests’ and periodically invite them to India.
• Allow Pakistani civil airlines to fly to any place in India and back without reciprocity. This will remove the obstacles which hinder people to people contact.
• Allow Pakistani tourists to bring their private vehicles to India without any reciprocity.
• Permit Pakistani ships to carry out trade from Indian ports without imposing any restrictions or additional levies. This will make their trade focus India-centric.