Indian Defence Review

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Due to the vast amount of oil deposits, mineral wealth and even possibility of hydrocarbons[i], China and several neighboring states namely The Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines, Brunei and Taiwan are involved in this dispute which involves land and maritime claims over the Islands and waters of South China Sea (SCS).

Naturally, in the recent years with the drastic rise of China as an economic and military power, China has become more assertive in the SCS, where an estimated US 5 trillion dollars trade passes, which includes the 82% Chinese maritime oil imports, the very blood and sweat of the Chinese economy and military[ii]. This dispute amongst the Chinese and the several neighbors surrounding the SCS is six decades old. In 1992, ASEAN came together with the Declaration on the South China Sea to help its member get their claim over the disputed and contested regions. As the ASEAN began to contest China, and upon further development of this chronicle, 25 years later, today China’s might has overpowered this regional organization and ASEAN is at a fragile ailment where its members can abjure their membership to pursue their individual strategic interest. This instability of ASEAN due to China’s actions can be summarized as following:-

Firstly, before one looks to analyze how the unity amongst the ASEAN nations is affected due the dispute in the SCS, one has to first and foremost look insideASEAN as an organization without the SCS dispute, as to why ASEAN as an organization was created. What role had the forefathers of ASEAN envisaged?  ASEAN was created as a regional organization to promote intergovernmental cooperation and to facilitate economic ties amongst the member states[iii]. ASEAN as an organization was not created for negotiating disputes and claims of sovereignty. Therefore, in order to build one voice for the ASEAN nations, the charter and the organizational roles of ASEAN needs a review.

An example that buttresses this argument can be cited here from the greater realm of International Organizations, is that of NATO. NATO as an organization was created with an idea foster security alliance and to counter the threat of military power of USSR. As USSR disintegrated, the existence of NATO was questioned and finally to keep pace with the changing contours of the world politics, NATO went through an entire revaluation process where it charter, role and responsibility was redefined. Lately as the largest nations in ASEAN namely the Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia are claiming over their share in the South China Sea, ASEAN as anorganization has integrated to increase its balance of power and flight with China in their respective claims over the islands in the SCS.

Secondly, in this anarchic world, every nation strives to achieve its own national interest. In ASEAN, 10 different nations have clustered together to foremost pursue a strategy that is in their respective self-interest, which at times overlaps the interest of the organization itself.

Vietnam is adamant over her claim of the Paracel Islands, Philippines claims The Luzon Straight, areas of Nutona Island and Sea Area north of Borneo, which is also claimed by Malaysia and  Taiwan.The landlocked Laos has always chosen to support China, as Laos depends heavily on China for most of its trade. Cambodia, like Laos has also supported China on various occasions due to its bilateral relations.

This conflict of interest amongst the member states is vital reason for the disunity in ASEAN.

Thirdly, the tinsel between China and few member states of the ASEAN countries namely The Vietnam, Philippines and Malaysia is only going to increase in the coming years because every development in the South China Sea is resulting in more militarization in the disputed areas. Recently Vietnam increased its defence budget by111%[iv], Philippines has announced spending of  USD 883 million dollars[v] to update its Navy and Malaysia increased its defence budget by 10% in 2014. Also, Vietnam and Philippines along with United States and Japan are regularly conducting joint patrol exercises in the SCS to keep China contained. On China’s side, China has deployed eight missile launchers and a radar system on Woody or Yongxing Island in the Paracels; Norinco CS/AR-1 55mm anti-frogman rocket launcher defence systems at Fiery Cross Reef in the Spratly Islands[vi]; and the DF-41 was apparently tested[vii] near the SCS. These are just few of the Chinese Military deployments in the South China Sea.

Fourthly, there is no common mode of negotiation between the ASEAN states and China. While ASEAN wants to multilaterally solve the disputes and arrive at a negotiation that is beneficial to all its members, China has rejected this mode of negotiation and prefers to bilaterally hold talks with the concerned nations. This misbalances the equation of power and unity that the ASEAN members hold, giving unfair weightage to some nations.

Fifthly, China has capacity to crash the entire economy of smaller nations of the ASEAN namely Laos, Cambodia and in recent times China has managed to influence Brunei and Singapore. Due to fear of strict sanctions from China that can create massive turmoil in the domestic fronts for Laos and Cambodia, these two countries have always chosen to chosen to support China, which has  given a  large shake to the unity of ASEAN.

To summarize, whether there will be unity in ASEAN or not one has to keenly observe the developing of Beijing in the South China Sea. If China continues to increase its assertion in the SCS and taking note of the rapidly developing Naval and Areal capabilities of China that includes New Aircraft Carriers, Nuclear Submarines and China’s indigenously developed Space technology, the future unity of ASEAN looks grim.

The current situation in the SCS is the legacy of the historical great power game between the United States and other regional actors. So far the ASEAN states have demonstrated their individual interest in other actors and tilted toward multipolarity, making it difficult to reach a concrete agreement in the SCS dispute. Finally, the challenge for ASEAN for continuing its legacy is that of providing a sense of security to the ASEAN citizens, without which there is no reason for ASEAN to exist.

Courtesy: First published on www.claws.in