Indian Defence Review

Map of Syria (Map Source: CIA Fact Book)

Syria has remained in the clutches of a repressive minority dominated regime led by the Al Asad family since 1970. Though, the Asad regime had violently suppressed an armed uprising led by the Muslim Brotherhood in early 1980s¹, yet inspite of learning lessons from it and pursuing political & economic reforms, the Asad regime’s persistent autocratic rule and misgovernance led to spiralling unemployment, widening socioeconomic disparities, rampant corruption, restrictions on freedom of expression of political thought and a tyrannical rule that bred severe discontent amongst the masses over the decades. This has finally landed Syria in the mess that is today.

For over 20 months now, Syria has been embroiled in an escalating spiral of brutality and violence, unravelling a humanitarian tragedy of unimaginable proportions. Several reports indicate that as many as 20,000 Syrians have been killed so far. Besides the loss of thousands of innocent lives, it is estimated that the protracted internal armed conflict in   Syria will render as many as   700,000 people homeless by end 2012, seeking shelter in neighbouring Turkey, Lebanon & Jordan posing an ominous threat to region’s stability. Fears of sectarian conflict, proxy war, proliferation of chemical weapons amongst non state actors etc are being expressed by several strategic analysts. This conflict continues to escalate amidst a spate of global riots triggered by a pointless anti Islamic film made by some senseless filmmaker in the US.  Given the prevailing flux that   plagues the security situation in the Middle East, it is pertinent to analyse possible futures for Syria.

Armed Intervention -The First Future

The first future involves a US /NATO led armed intervention or a regional intervention by the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) backed up by the NATO/West, leading to capitulation of the Asad regime. Key events that would drive this scenario would involve unprecedented scale of civilian casualties leading to coming together of the P5 of the UNSC to allow such an armed intervention. However, as long as the Asad regime remains backed by Iran, Russia and China, this scenario remains highly unlikely in the foreseeable future. While this future remains highly unlikely, it would have a high impact on the region’s stability.  An armed intervention in Syria is fraught with several risks.   The first and foremost is that it shall reinstate an unsavoury precedent of armed interventions in sovereignty of a nation state and hence is not be acceptable to many in the international community, including India, Russia and China.

A fall out of this scenario would be an enforced transition of power to an opposition led government with questionable credentials, credibility and acceptability. Then there exists a possibility of such an intervention mothballing into a regional proxy war between Syria and its Allies (Russia, Iran) and West/GCC with potentially devastating outcomes for World’s peace. The possibility of spillage of the conflict into neighbouring Turkey & Lebanon has also has to be factored in.  Thus this future remains most undesirable and all countries must work together to prevent such a future outcome of the Syrian muddle.

The Power Brokers – A Second Future

The second future involves a brokered deal with the Asad Regime leading to a negotiated power transition to a National Unity government. While this scenario remains the most desirable from the point of view of putting an immediate end to the human tragedy, Iran and Russia would have to play a Broker’s Role on behalf of the international community for this to happen. A ‘Carrot & Stick’ approach if adopted by its only remaining allies (Iran & Russia) will leave no option for Asad but to quit. For this to happen, Iran & Russia have to be proactively engaged by the international community.  Iran in all possibilities would like to use this as a bargaining chip for its nuclear programme which the US, Israel and other GCC countries are never going to accept.  Thus while this scenario may be highly desirable it also remains unlikely in near future. The world needs to work coherently to arrive at a negotiated settlement by proactively engaging all parties to the conflict besides the regional actors.

Libya Repeated -The Third Future

The third scenario involves rebels brutally deposing the Asad Regime with tacit assistance of the GCC, US and the West. This approach essentially would be out of the ambit of the UN but would yet be a repeat of the ‘Libyan Model’. It would invariably involve training and arming of rebels and even militias propped up by non state actors like Al Qaeda. In such a scenario there exists a high possibility of a regional Shia- Sunni sectarian proxy conflict between Iran (which considers Syria as its Post Of Influence in the Middle East) and the member states of the GCC playing a major role.  Such a state in Syria would be direct outcome of the regional tensions between the two prominent sects of Islam- the Sunni and Shia Muslims.

While this scenario also remains most undesirable from the point of view of region’s stability, there are indications that this scenario may already be unravelling as the GCC countries seem to be in favour of this approach and are already tacitly assisting the Syrian Rebels. GCC members states  have been overtly  advocating for armed support to Syria  rebels with a view to  impose  a Sunni dominated Arab  controlled regime in Syria with a view to  nullify Iranian influence. Besides this there are reports that the US has provided non lethal assistance to the rebels and is facilitating Saudi Arabia & Turkey to arm Syrian rebels and has pledged more than 100 million for humanitarian aid.²

In a scenario like this,  the conflict would escalate further , witness unprecedented levels of sectarian violence, killings of thousands of civilians  and possible use of  chemical weapons by the Asad Regime  to hold  on to power before finally being overthrown.  Then there is the Clear And Present Danger of Assad’s stockpiles of chemical and conventional weapons falling into hands non state actors. The catastrophic consequences of such an event on Global peace and security are self explanatory.

Syrian Nightmare -The Fourth Future

A fourth future, would   that be of a protracted civil war and disintegration of Syria along sectarian lines with Asad retaining control of the Alawite dominated regions. The key driver for such a scenario would be continuation of Iranian and Russian backing to Syria and a persistent lack of coherent approach to the Syrian problem by the international community.

In such a scenario, the conflict could go on for years leading to several thousand casualties before fatigue sets in parties to the conflict and a negotiation over power sharing begins. In such a scenario, the Syrian state is likely to disintegrate into Alawite, Sunni and Kurdish regions and with Asad likely to hold on to power in Alawite region with backing of Iran & Russia.  Given the prevailing geopolitical flux this is a likely future though an undesirable one. One of the major consequences of such a scenario would be that a Syrian state disintegrated along the sectarian lines would be a haven for non state actors like Al Qaeda with ominous danger to global security. However the risk to Syrian chemical weapon stockpiles would be reduced as they are likely to remain under control of the Asad regime in the Alawite region. The regime though may be tempted to use it against its opponents to hold on to power. Thus, a protracted conflict in Syria would only lead to a bigger humanitarian tragedy besides sparking a bitter and violent proxy war between regional players like Iran, Turkey & Saudi Arabia and must be avoided.

Conclusion

The conflict in Syria has reached a point wherein the rebels backed up by state & non state actors have control over a larger part of Syria and hold of the Asad regime has waned considerably. The situation is such that neither the continuation of the conflict nor the removal of Assad will restore peace & stability in the region. As the situation in Syria continues to worsen with every passing day, it is time that the international community came together to work out a way out of this mess. While actors like Iran and the Russia need to abandon some of their aspirations, similarly the US and the GCC member states also need to step out of their regional ambitions and quest for unchallenged influence in the region. Till such time this happens, many more human lives are going to be lost and the conflict would remain interminable. Essentially, this is not an Ideal World!!