Indian Defence Review

In doing so, Washington would be forced to downsize its arrangements with Pakistan, which is hosting the American nemesis—al-Qaeda—and using massive air power to secure the southern parts of the negotiated Pashtunistan. To insulate a disgruntled Pakistan from Iran, the coalition would perforce have to recognise the aspirations of Balochistan.

The tricky part would be managing the fallout of truncated Pakistan possessing nuclear weapons. This may have to be dealt with by putting into action the U.S. counterproliferation strategy.

All this is not a new gambit. The U.S. administration has already spelt out the objective of the ongoing war in Afghanistan through a white paper, affirming that the “core goal of the US must be to disrupt, dismantle, and defeat al-Qaeda and its safe havens in Pakistan, and to prevent their return to Pakistan or Afghanistan,” mentioned earlier in this paper. Obviously, the Pentagon has been working at formulating a strategy to achieve this end in conjunction with the UK, as is manifest in the research paper put out by the House of Commons Library, “The ‘AfPak policy’ and the Pashtuns” (Research Paper 10/45, 22 June 2010).56

In the event of such a policy shift by the U.S., South Asia will undergo major upheavals with serious ramifications for India. New Delhi will have to make major alterations to its strategic thinking and policies to cope with the new strategic environment—in keeping with its objective to be a major player in the region, the U.S. and its coalition notwithstanding.

Notes and References

1. Irfan Husain. “Endgame in Afghanistan.” Dawn (Pakistan), 19 June 2010, <http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/the-newspaper/columnists/21-irfan-husain-endgame-in-afghanistan-960-sk-07>.
2. Nancy Youssef. “What’s US Objective in Afghanistan?” The Real News, 3 November 2009. Pentagon officials are going public with plan to set up indefinitely in the region objective. <http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&Itemid=74&jumival=4407>.
3. House of Commons Library. “The ‘AfPak Policy’ and the Pashtuns.” Research Paper 10/45. 22 June 2010. p. 50. <http://www.parliament.uk/briefingpapers/commons/lib/research/rp2010/RP10-045.pdf>.
4. Vijai K. Nair. Report on findings during a visit to the U.S. 25 March 2001–14 April 2002. Based on interviews with strategic analysts in and out of the administration; Rebecca Pearsey. “Center of Power Shifting World to Asia.” United Press International, 13 February 2007.
5. Ibid.
6. Jim Holt. “It’s the Oil.” London Review of Books 29, no. 20, October 2007. pp. 3–4. <http://www.lrb.co.uk/v29/n20/jim-holt/its-the-oil>.
7. Global Security.org. “Iraq Facilities.” <http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/facility/iraq-intro.htm>.
8. Julio Godoy. “US Policy on Taliban Influenced by Oil – Authors.” Asia Times, 20 November 2001.
9. George Friedman. “The Caucasus Cauldron.” Stratfor, 7 July 2010. <http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20100706_caucasus_cauldron>.
10. Richard Weitz. “Afghanistan in China’s Emerging Eurasian Transport Corridor.” China Brief X, no. 14, July 2010. <http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=36604&tx_ttnews[backPid]=25&cHash=780230c2e2>.
11. David Batty. “Dutch Government Collapses After Labour Withdrawal from Coalition.” Guardian (UK), 20 February 2010. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/feb/20/dutch-coalition-collapse-afghanistan>.
12. Peter Cassata. “Harper Stresses Commitment to 2011 Canadian Troop Withdrawal from Afghanistan.” Atlantic Council. 8 October 2008. <http://www.acus.org/atlantic_update/harper-stresses-commitment-canadian-troop-withdrawal-afghanistan>.
13. The Frontier Post (Pakistan). “Germany to Start Withdrawal Next Year.” Reported by Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle. 10 July 2010. <http://www.thefrontierpost.com/News.aspx?ncat=an&nid=1883&ad=10-07-2010>.
14. Patrick Wintour. “Afghanistan Withdrawal Before 2015, Says David Cameron.” Guardian (UK), 26 June 2010. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/jun/25/british-soldiers-afghanistan-david-cameron>.
15. Agence France-Presse. “Obama Allies Demand End to Afghan War.” 2 July 2010. <http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2010\07\02\story_2-7-2010_pg1_5>.
16. Walter Anderson, former points man for the U.S. State Department’s Intelligence Wing and now a senior adjunct professor at Johns Hopkins, Paul H Nitze School of Advanced International Studies. Presentation at a seminar hosted by the Centre of Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi, on “Afghanistan: Post-exit Strategies and India’s Role.”
17. Arnaud de Borchbrave. “DEBORCHGRAVE: Wearying Walk in the Quagmire.” Washington Times, 30 June 2010. <http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2010/jun/30/wearying-walk-in-the-quagmire/>
18. General Casey. “America May Be in Iraq and Afghanistan for Another Decade.” CNN, 10 July 2010. <http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2010/07/10/gen-casey-america-may-be-in-iraq-and-afghanistan-for-another-decade/?fbid=T5BIX_6XBDD>.
19. Indranil Banerji, a defence and security analyst. “End Game in Kabul.” Asian Age, 10 July 2010. <http://www.asianage.com/opinion/endgame-kabul-256>.
20. Pepe Escobar. “Slouching Towards Balkanisation.” Asia Times Online, 14 November 2001. <http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/KE22Df02.html>.
21. Robert D. Blackwill. “A De Facto Partition for Afghanistan.” Politico.com, 7 July 2010. <http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=AACEE164-18FE-70B2-A8E30566E50DFB3A>.
22. Afghanistan’s Web Site. “Durand Line.” <http://www.afghanistans.com/information/history/durandline.htm>.
23. Encyclopædia Britannica, s.v. “Durand Line.” <http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/174128/Durand-Line>.
24. Op cit, n. 3, p. 77.
25. Ibid., p. 11.
26. The Dawn Media Group (Pakistan). “NWFP Officially Renamed as Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa.”15 April 2010. <http://www.dawn.com/wps/wcm/connect/dawn-content-library/dawn/news/pakistan/07-senate-begins-voting-on-18th-amendment-ha-02>.
27. Imtiaz Gul. “Pakistan’s Dueling Drones Debate.” Foreign Policy AFPAK Channel, 2 July 1010. <http://afpak.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2010/07/02/pakistans_dueling_drones_debate>.
28. Rumbold. “Pashtunistan: The Way to Save Both Afghanistan and Pakistan.” Pickled Politics, 19 September 2007. <http://www.pickledpolitics.com/archives/1384>.
29. Michael D. Holmes. “Secessionist Jihad: the Taliban’s Struggle for Pashtunistan.” Military Intelligence Professional Bulletin, Jul–Sep 2008. <http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0IBS/is_3_34/ai_n45026127/>.
30. Ibid.
31. Chadwick F. Alger, Ohio State University. “Religion as Peace Tool.” The Global Review of Ethnopolitics 1, no. 4, June 2002. pp. 94–109.
32. M. Ehsan Ahrari. “China, Pakistan, and the ‘Taliban Syndrome.’” Asian Survey 40, no. 4, Jul–Aug 2000. University of California Press. pp. 658–671. <http://www.jstor.org/stable/3021187>.
33. Lawrence Osborne. “Ministry of Silly Wars: Britain in Central Asia. Source.” World Affairs Journal. <http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/articles/2010-MayJune/full-Osborne-MJ-2010.html>.
34. Ibid.
35. Trip Atlas.com. “Pashtunistan.” <http://tripatlas.com/Pashtunistan>.
36. Ian Mills. “China’s Patience Paying Off in Central Asia.” World Politics Review. 14 July 2010. <http://www.worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/6035/chinas-patience-paying-off-in-central-asia>.
37. Mark Curtis. “Bin Laden, the Taliban, Zawahiri: Britain’s Done Business with Them All.” Guardian (UK), 5 July 2010. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jul/05/bin-laden-radical-islam-collusion>.
38. Remarks by Antonio Maria Costa, executive director, UNODC, to the Diplomatic Academy, Warsaw, Poland. “Drugs: Cash Flow for Organized Crime.” 1 February 2005. <http://www.unodc.org/unodc/en/about-unodc/speeches/speech_2005-02-1.html>.
39. Executive Intelligence Review News Service. “Why Did U.S. Intelligence Expel MI-6 Agents from Afghanistan?” 30 December 2007. <http://intellibriefs.blogspot.com/2007/12/why-did-us-intelligence-expel-mi-6.html>.
40. Nasimeh Niazi. “Afghan MP Unveils Western Forces’ Involvement in Drug Trafficking.” FARS News Agency, 19 April 2010. <http://english.farsnews.com/newstext.php?nn=8901301473>.
41. James Kirkup. “British Muslims Fighting Alongside Taliban, Commanders Claim.” Telegraph (UK), 2 January 2009. <http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/afghanistan/4076591/British-Muslims-fighting-alongside-Taliban-commanders-claim.html>.
42. History Commons.org. “Early 1997: Leading Radical Imam Abu Hamza Begins Working with British Security Services.” <http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=aearly97damsonberry#aearly97damsonberry>.
43. See O’Neill and Daniel McGrory. The Suicide Factory: Abu Hamza and the Finsbury Park Mosque. HarperCollins, 2006. pp. 89–93. Also see “Early 1997: Leading Radical Imam Abu Hamza Begins Working with British Security Services.” History Commons.org. <http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=aearly97damsonberry#aearly97damsonberry>.
44. Ibid.
45. Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh. “Global Jihad: The 21st Century’s Global Phenomenon.” <http://www.globaljihad.net/view_page.asp?id=410>.
46. PBS Online News Hour. “Pakistan Convicts Four Men in Pearl Murder.” 15 July 2002. <http://www.pbs.org/newshour/updates/pearl_07-15-02.html>.
47. Paul Lewis. “Inside the Islamic Group Accused by MI5 and FBI.” Guardian (UK), 19 August 2006. <http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2006/aug/19/religion.terrorism>.
48. Nicola Smith. “British Islamists Plot Against Pakistan.” Sunday Times (UK), 4 July 2006. <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/asia/article6638483.ece>.
49. Christina Lamb, reporting from Kabul. “Karzai Bids for Peace in Furore with London.” Sunday Times (UK), 11 February 2007. <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/article1364771.ece>
50. Talatbek Masadykov (UNAMA), Antonio Giustozzi (Crisis States Research Centre) and James Michael Page (UNAMA). “Negotiating with the Taliban: Toward a Solution for the Afghan Conflict.” Crisis States Working Papers Series No. 2. January 2010. p. 16. <http://www.crisisstates.com/download/wp/wpSeries2/WP66.2.pdf>.
51. Ibid.
52. Anthony Lyod, reporting from Kabul. “Terror Link Alleged as Saudi Millions Flow into Afghanistan War Zone.” Sunday Times (UK). 31 May 2010. <http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/afghanistan/article7140745.ece>.
53. Paul Reynolds. “Aims of the London Conference on Afghanistan.” BBC News, 28 January 2010. <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8480368.stm>.
54. History Commons. “April 26, 2009: Saudi Prince Turki al-Faisal and Brent Scowcroft Advise Obama Administration to Ally with Jalaluddin Haqqani, Negotiate with Taliban.” http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=KabulTalksInsurgentsMecca08#KabulTalksInsurgentsMecca08. And History Commons. “Between 24 and 27 September 2008: Afghan Government Officials Reportedly Meet with Hekmatyar and Taliban Representatives Under Saudi Auspices in Mecca.” <http://www.historycommons.org/context.jsp?item=TurkiUSshouldAllyWithHaqqani09#TurkiUSshouldAllyWithHaqqani09>.
55. Mariam Safi. “Reconcilition & Reintigration [sic] in Afghanistan.” South Asia Defence & Strategic Review, 6 June 2010. <http://www.defstrat.com/exec/frmArticleDetails.aspx?DID=247>.
56. House of Commons Library, Op cit.