Indian Defence Review

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Prime Minister of Nepal K P Sharma Oli

India and Nepal share deep cultural and religious ties, yet certain events in the recent past have overtaken this age old close relationship. To put it succulently Nepal is overplaying the China card and the Indian establishment is slowly but steadily not buying this line any more. Two recent events show case this and have produced divergently opposite reactions from India. The first was earthquake which devastated Nepal, wherein, the Indian nation acted so quickly with aid, and the second was the Indian reaction after the promulgation of the Constitution of Nepal.

Has the recent visit of the prime minister of Nepal Shree K P Sharma Oli gone off well is the moot questions? There are some events that state the old level of friendship has still not been reached. The visit did not bring a joint communiqué between the two nations which has been the norm. It is not only this but a lot of other dots that add up to show that a line of discontent between the two countries remains. After meeting the Indian PM the two leaders jointly addressed the media which due to other breaking news hardly got due coverage. The tone and tenor of speech, the correct diplomatic words used by the Indian PM, and the very fact that the Nepalese PM twice used the word ‘misunderstanding’, in their joint address, clearly shows that a lot of ground still remains to be covered.

In order to clear his stand Mr. Oli met a large number of leaders, and he also visited the Tehri dam site at Uttarakhand. He met the home minister Mr. Rajnath Singh and the National Security Advisor, Ajit Doval called on him. All these clearly show that the word ‘misunderstanding’ often used by the Nepalese PM still remain. At the heart of the problem lies the issue of demarcation of Madhesi provinces, which affects the identity of the Madhesi. A joint press communiqué would have opened with the words “India and Nepal accept the new constitution”, but the truth is that India does not accept the new constitution, thus the visit hardly served its purpose. The core issue of Madhesi identity remains. For India it’s about security. Did the Nepalese PM come prepared to discuss, the revised scenario? One wonders! This clearly shows that the relationship is threatened by the impending announcement of another blockade, which the Madhesi groups have threatened as they are not happy with the formation of a mechanism to address their issues which was announced one day prior to Oli’s visit to India.

The genesis of the problem goes back to the formulation of the constitution. Nepal political class could not agree to a constitution thus the big four political parties Nepali Congress (NC), the Maoist (UCPN), Madhesi People’s Rights Forum (Democratic) and the Communist Party of Nepal (UML) on 8th June 2015, signed a deal to bring the constitution out earliest, or else it would miss another deadline. The Second Constituent Assembly (CA) finally submitted a Draft Constitution for Nepal which was earlier held up for a vast variety of reasons, the major one being a lack of consensus amongst all the political parties. The four parties that signed the sixteen point agreement in effect left the contentious issue which lies at the heart of the problem regarding the provinces to a federal commission. What would be the names of the provinces, will they be based on ethnicity as demanded by Maoist, and what will be their respective boundaries? The names of the states will be decided by a two third majority of the respective assemblies. Needless to say the smaller parties took the matter to Supreme Court which ruled in their favor and the law makers responded saying it was a case of judicial over reach.

Nepal’s population is roughly divided into two, hill centric or those who call the shots, and plains centric (Madhesi), and both feel this issue dilutes federalism and some law makers feel that they are defying the judiciary. Instead of sorting out the problem than another can of worms as a lot of unfinished agenda with telling effect later.

Nepal never-the-less went ahead and promulgated the Constitution even in a last minute effort the Indian Foreign Secretary visited Nepal to give the Indian view. Protest soon broke out. This was a Constitution that took seven years in the making and the tenure of two constituent assemblies. The three main sticking points were creation of the provinces, secularism, and to a less extent, the discrimination against women. The core issues for the Madhesi people were the creation of the provinces, coupled with citizenship and under representation in parliament[i].

As per the protestors the majority parties had let down the Madhesi and the Janajati people and other marginalized people. There were violent protests also against not declaring Nepal as a Hindu state. Chairs had been flung at high ranking members of the CA. The Madhesi parties had been boycotting voting on the draft Constitution. Discrimination against women had not seen violent protests, and citizenship being exclusive still remained a grey area.

India’s Seven Suggestions. Nepal has promulgated seven Constitutions in seven decades; none had survived the test of posterity. The seven suggestions of India were as under:-

• Article 84 needs to be changed as suggested in article 63(3), of the draft. “Madhesi need to have electoral constituencies in proportion to their population”. Currently 50% Madhesi population has only 25% seats.
• Article 42, the word proportional has been dropped regarding state structures, whereas, article 21 of the draft granted the same to the Madhesi.
• Article 283 reserves rights for higher positions to citizens by descent which is discriminatory.
• Article 86 nominates 8 members from seven states and 3 nominated members for National Assembly. Madhesi want the same in proportion to population.
• Create Madhes province consisting of five districts, namely Kanchanpur, Kailali, Sunsari, Jhapa and Morang.
• Article 281 of new constitution calls for delineation every twenty years, draft article 154 called for it every ten years.
• Article 11(6) calls for a foreign woman married to a Nepali citizen may acquire naturalized citizenship. Madhesi parties naturalization to be automatic[ii].

The Madhesi issue simply refused to die down and caused a temporary estranged relationship between two time tested friends. The Madhesi had blocked the border thus not allowing any land connectivity between Nepal and India. The agitation lasted nearly six months and was also referred to as the unofficial blockade. The stand of the government of Nepal was that India was supporting the blockage and the stand of Government of India was that law and order situation does not permit plying of transport and the Madhesi were blocking the border. Simply put if an issue cannot be resolved earliest human nature ensures other means had to be found.

There was a question of demand and supply. The common perception that the Nepali political class had built in Kathmandu was that India was responsible for the blockade. With a gas cylinder costing NC Rs 10000 and petrol available at NC Rs 400 a liter the common man believed the same. Each time the common man payed disproportionally higher price and his kith and kin were forced to cook on wood he believed the Nepali politician. This anti India feeling was exploited by the Maoist who are pro China and the communist party of Nepal, their new found friends. What the Nepali political class did not tell the common man that they were least interested in solving the issue, as they were making a killing in black market.

Nepal is trying to play the China card on India. For the Chinese this is a logistical nightmare, yet they exploit this situation because of New Delhi mishandling of the situation. The track record of China in Tibet is not very good either. The Han Chinese has completely overtaken the local Tibetan by sheer numbers and Nepal should be aware. China is also building one road one belt, but all these roads lead to China alone. There is also the question of 20,000 Tibetans refugees in Nepal of whom the Chinese are very suspicious. The fact of the matter is that international perception with every passing day was growing stronger that there was an unofficial blockade by New Delhi.

This was the background that Oli visited India. The two nations need to understand the compulsions of one another and not harden their respective stands. For India it’s about security, and Nepal forms a part of India’s security architecture as traditionally do the Himalayas. The Chinese and the anti national element need to be kept at bay. For Nepal it’s about its pride, and the very fact that the hill dominated politics does not want “one Madhesh and two Pradesh’, as they feel it will have implications on their territorial integrity, “but from whom”, is the question, Nepal needs to answer?

The Constitution of Nepal clearly was not as the spirit of the Indo Nepal 1950 treaty, and it also, needs to clear the issues, regarding, upper house representation, citizenship and demarcation, issues that need urgent attention. India too did an unofficial blockade that proved to be counter- productive. The core issue of misunderstanding thus one feels remains, between nations, that have open borders, cultural and religious ties, and time tested friendship.

The compulsions on the Nepalese PM are his huge cabinet nearly forty ministers, a large number of deputy prime ministers, coalition politics at its very best and an anti India audience and pro China stance which Nepal want to use as a China card against India. The track record of controlling black marketers who profited from the recent economic blockade was poor. In such an environment to suddenly expect one visit shall sort out everything may be asking for too much? The aid given by China for Nepal in its hour of crisis is for all to see, at best one days fuel supply for the whole of Kathmandu and Nepal foreign minister not being able to meet the President or PM of China. Will China antagonize India over Nepal is a billion dollar question?

Where do the two nations go from here? The Indian stand is clearly a security stand and Nepal is clearly trying to bring China into the equitation. The political class in Nepal needs to ask themselves an honest question, “why should India which wants to improve relations with all its neighbors, including the swapping of enclaves with Bangladesh” held up for year’s suddenly sore relations with Nepal, that too over its constitution?

Nepal and India need to progress together. A strong India leads to a strong Nepal, there are far too many similarities between the two the differences are far and few. The two sides are interlinked with people and shared borders which are open. Its citizens have cultural and religious ties. The commonalities outweigh the differences. Both the nations need one another thus the leaders will have to understand each other’s point of view. The political class of Nepal needs to understand that by using anti India sentiment they are only losing out on their strategic goals. The Madhesi issue if it spirals out of control has secessionist overtures, and does not fit well into the larger context of peace and security in this region. The Madhesi must not feel like a second class citizen that implies adhering to the advice of the Indian state; the constitution must be all inclusive.

[i] www.indianexpress.com

[ii] Indian Express dated September 23, 2015