Indian Defence Review

Planning for Modernization of the IAF

Festivity during the 75th anniversary of the Indian Air Force in October 2005 was overshadowed by the concern over its depleting combat power. Obsolescence appears to be overtaking the IAF as several components of its combat and supporting assets are reaching the end of technical or calendar life and need replacement very soon. The Government appeared to be seized of the problem as a few days later at a Combined Commanders’ Conference held in South Block, came the assurance from the highest level that modernization of the armed forces was a matter of high priority and that the required resources would be made available.

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Modernization of the IAF involves acquisition of expensive capital equipment that has a life span of three to four decades. Acquisition of equipment for the IAF in the past has generally been characterized by slow decision making and complex procurement procedures leading to delays in the operational integration of the equipment with the organization. The procurement process is long drawn and in the best case may take seven to ten years to fructify.

Modernization plans must take in to account the challenges of the evolving scenario in the geo-political, geo-strategic, technological and operational environment in the region and the world as these would impact on the role and responsibility of the IAF as also its shape and size.

As such, plans drawn up today must remain valid in the decade of the twenties by which time changes in the operating environment could well render decisions of today irrelevant. Modernization plans must therefore take in to account the challenges of the evolving scenario in the geo-political, geo-strategic, technological and operational environment in the region and the world as these would impact on the role and responsibility of the IAF as also its shape and size. It is therefore necessary to reflect on the historical perspective of regional equations and visualize the scenario that is likely to prevail in the twenties before undertaking plans for modernization of the IAF.

 Conflict and the Developing World

In the first half of the 20th century the world went through the convulsions of two major wars that apart from wreaking widespread death and destruction, divided the world in to two distinct camps hostile to each other and ushered in an era of the Cold War and global peace, essentially on account of a balance of power arising out of superpower rivalry. While the two superpowers maintained a balance of terror, conventional proxy wars continued to rage and were confined largely to the developing world. These wars served the political and economic interests of the superpowers as they helped perpetuate strategic relationships and turn the wheels of the military industrial complex of the developed world.

Sino-Indian Relations

Emerging as a dismembered but independent nation in the middle of the 20th century, India inherited several thousand kilometres of land borders that had a potential for conflict whose origins lay in the flawed policies of the British Government. The border between India and Tibet had been defined unilaterally by the British Government during their reign in India without any formal agreement with China who constantly maintained that in the first place, there was no need for a redefinition of borders as the traditional boundaries were well known and that there was no need to indulge in the exercise at all. At no stage did the Chinese endorse or accept the British action with regard to the delineation of the border with Tibet. The alignment of the traditional boundaries perceived by China were also not universally known except perhaps to the Chinese themselves.

A politically weak position combined with a visibly weak military posture on our part therefore could seriously undermine the process of the ongoing dialogue as also impinge on the fragile relationship that we believe to have succeeded in building in the recent past.

The unresolved legacy inherited from the past left an unwary nation traumatized in 1962. More than four decades later, efforts are now on to resolve the fundamental dispute and notwithstanding the inspiring rhetoric emanating from the political establishment of both India and China and the somewhat regimented bonhomie at the military outpost at Nathu La beamed on the visual media occasionally, the ground situation has not changed in favour of India. In fact, in some ways it has indeed worsened as in the intervening years, the Chinese have only consolidated their gains of 1962 in Ladakh and are continuing to develop regions bordering Arunachal on a scale that cannot be justified for economic reasons alone. It would be imprudent to believe that it is possible only through dialogue to alter the age old position held by China regarding the alignment of international borders between India and Tibet. But in the absence of any other option, the dialogue must continue. We ought not to ignore the fact that it is more important for us to come to an amicable settlement of the border dispute than it is for China. As per a renowned Chinese leader, it may be desirable to shelve the problem for now and leave it to the future generations who may be wiser to find a solution. A politically weak position combined with a visibly weak military posture on our part therefore could seriously undermine the process of the ongoing dialogue as also impinge on the fragile relationship that we believe to have succeeded in building in the recent past.

Apart from the ongoing border dispute, the economic rivalry that is building up slowly but surely between the two of the fastest growing economies in the region, has the potential for conflict arising out of clash of vital interests. While India aspires to emerge as a regional power, China is emerging as a global economic power house and her sights are set on superpower status. China would not have failed to notice the shift in India‘s foreign policy aimed at strengthening the strategic relationship between the two largest democracies in the world. China acquired nuclear power status several years ahead of India to achieve a credible deterrent against a perceived threat from a superpower. China has also successfully completed her second space mission and in the next decade and a half, is planning to despatch a manned mission to moon as also build a space station. Clearly, China is ahead in the race with India. Then there is the long standing relationship with Pakistan wherein apart from supply of conventional military equipment, China has played a key role in transforming Pakistan in to a nuclear weapon state, a step that has only accentuated the tension and served to complicate the security equations in the sub-continent.

Indo-Pak Confrontation

On the western front, the status of Jammu and Kashmir, truly the only cause of conflict, is a legacy of the colonial past. In the wake of super-power rivalry, Britain was replaced in the region by the USA, and while Pakistan was drawn quite readily in to the American camp, India adopted a philosophy of non alignment opting for a diverse inventory of military equipment i.e. British and French. However for strategic, economic and political reasons India had to subsequently lean heavily on the Soviet Union for military hardware to meet with the demands of national security. Even though formally not allied with the USSR, India was seen by the USA as being squarely in the Soviet camp and was treated with extreme suspicion and unconcealed disdain.

“¦there are other factors and deep seated ant-India sentiments that militate against normalization of relations. In the Pakistani mindset, India is a hegemonic power that poses a constant and potent threat to her very survival.

Nearly six decades and four major conflicts later, there appears to have been some qualitative change in the equation between India and Pakistan. People to people contact, exchange programmes in a variety of fields, restoration of rail and road transport, liberalization of visa regimes, trade both official and unofficial and cooperation in the wake of the disastrous earthquake in the recent past have rekindled hopes for peace between the two adversaries. The media has also by and large played a very constructive role in exposing the reality of India to the several brainwashed and misled generations of Pakistanis. All these developments have served to weaken the anti-each-other platforms that the political establishment on both sides have so far thrived upon.

However, there are other factors and deep seated ant-India sentiments that militate against normalization of relations. In the Pakistani mindset, India is a hegemonic power that poses a constant and potent threat to her very survival. The corporate aim of the Pakistani establishment has been to exploit the vulnerabilities of India, weaken her from the inside and ‘to bleed her with a thousand cuts’. The situation with regard to the status of Kashmir has not changed, and like a persistent virus, resurfaces with irritating regularity, seemingly frustrating efforts at forward movement.

In spite of all noble intentions, it appears difficult if not impossible for the Pakistani establishment to retreat from or significantly alter their long held position vis-à-vis Kashmir as it would amount to political suicide for the leadership whether military or civilian. As for the Indian view, it is only for Pakistan to demonstrate flexibility which the leadership is not prepared to do. And then there is the unfinished business of POK. Also, as it appears, the maximum that India can concede on Kashmir is less than what would be acceptable to Pakistan.In view of the inflexible position on both sides, Kashmir will continue to be a major impediment in any effort at securing the western borders from the possibility of conflict. Nothing short of reversing the process of partition leading to the reunification of India and Pakistan can help resolve the dispute over Kashmir. Solution to the Kashmir problem will therefore   remain as much in the realm of fantasy in the foreseeable future as the suggestion to reunite the two nations.

In the emerging scenario and the rapprochement with the USA, India could well be drawn in to a US led security arrangement for a new power balance in the region.

Apart from the Kashmir issue, there are problems on other fronts as well. The population of Pakistan is growing at roughly 2.6% annually and is not matched by its economic growth. Pakistan will therefore continue to be in a dysfunctional state and would have to depend heavily on foreign assistance for survival. The growing economic disparity between India and Pakistan could aggravate the sense of insecurity that a small nation perceives from a bigger and more prosperous and powerful neighbour with whom there are deep ideological differences and a long history of turbulent relationship. The sense of insecurity may be further aggravated if our western neighbour finds her position vis-à-vis Kashmir weakening. Under such circumstances, for Pakistan, a conflict may appear to be an inevitable and desperate option. Under the shadow of the nuclear threat, in all likelihood, Pakistan may avoid an all out war and prefer to sustain low intensity conflict in the valley and undermine our interests through covert support to insurgency in other parts of the country bordering Nepal and Bangladesh. This certainly would be a more convenient and cost effective option for Pakistan.

Prospects of Peace 

It should be clear from the preceding that India cannot rest on its oars and take permanent peace in the subcontinent for granted. Perhaps peace can only be ensured if one is well prepared to meet with any conceivable threat to national security by all the means at its disposal, be it political, economic, diplomatic, or military. Encouraging progress in efforts at settlement of disputes with both China and Pakistan ought not to be assumed as good enough reason for scaling down military capability.

Under the shadow of the nuclear threat, in all likelihood, Pakistan may avoid an all out war and prefer to sustain low intensity conflict in the valley and undermine our interests through covert support to insurgency in other parts of the country bordering Nepal and Bangladesh.

Besides, in future conflicts with either or simultaneously with both the neighbours, India needs to be prepared to manage conflicts at the conventional level as also fight and survive in a nuclear environment. In the ultimate analysis, a nation is respected for its strength, political, economic and military.

India as a Regional Power

The last decade of the 20th century witnessed a set of three major events that had a profound effect on the destiny of many nations as also on that of India. The first of these was the collapse of the Soviet Union which seemed to have severed India’s moorings to set it a drift for a while. The second major event was the uncaging of the Indian economy and the process of economic reforms and liberalization that thrust India on to the global scene. The third and most significant event was the explicit assertion in 1998 of the nuclear status by both India and Pakistan. Thus in the new century, the situation for the nation and her armed forces is qualitatively different in a number of ways.

In the emerging scenario and the rapprochement with the USA, India could well be drawn in to a US led security arrangement for a new power balance in the region. The USA regards India as one of the power centres that can exercise a stabilizing influence in the region and can be relied upon. High levels of investment notwithstanding, containment of China will remain a major concern for the USA. In her own perspective, on account of India’s energy security needs, so vital for sustained economic growth, India’s zone of interest transcend her geographical boundaries extending from South East Asia to the Central Asian Republics and the Gulf. India conveyed to the world a subtle message by of her swift response to the Tsunami in December 2004. In the evolving geopolitical situation and economic growth sustained at 8%, conditions are favourable for India to assume the role of a regional power in not too distant a future.

Rhetoric, assurances and promises must not lull the nation in to complacency and risk a replay of the 1962 debacle.

India would be expected to shoulder higher levels of military responsibility consequent to her evolving regional power status. In addition, the fundamental reasons for conflict with China and Pakistan continue to linger vigorous political and diplomatic efforts notwithstanding. The search for solutions to disputes rooted deeply in history require prolonged and complex negotiations. However to be successful on the political and diplomatic fronts, one needs to negotiate from a position of strength. India is well on the way to becoming an economic power. It is incumbent on the leadership to ensure that there is no dilution of military capability if the equation with our traditionally hostile neighbours is not to be compromised. Rhetoric, assurances and promises must not lull the nation in to complacency and risk a replay of the 1962 debacle.

Security Environment in the Twenties

To summarize, in the geopolitical, geostrategic and security environment that is likely to prevail in the 2020s, the dictates of national security would place the following demands on armed forces of the nation:-

While considerable progress has been made on the political, economic and diplomatic fronts, the overall security situation continues to remain fraught with uncertainties. India’s growing political and economic stature in the world and commitments of national interests necessitate a move away from the traditional defensive mindset. India must acquire the capability for power projection in the area of interest which will require a qualitative change in the operational philosophy of the armed forces especially of the IAF. Within the broad structural framework that has evolved over the last five decades, there is a need to modify the composition and character of the various constituents of the IAF to provide extended reach and staying power. The focus must shift from the ‘Tactical‘ to the ‘Strategic’ as also on ‘Force Multipliers’. The IAF must also integrate fully with the sister services as also aim to develop interoperability with other friendly powers in the region and the world for furtherance of mutual interests.

The armed forces of India have matured through a number of major conflicts with our neighbours in the last five decades. The IAF in particular has benefited from the lessons learnt in these conflicts and has been quick to absorb the technological advances witnessed elsewhere in the world. Undoubtedly, in the military dimension of national security, the IAF would be called upon to shoulder enhanced levels of responsibility and would have a critical role to play both during peace and war especially in situations demanding swift response. The IAF needs to draw up plans to acquire the wherewithal to meet with the challenges of the 2020s. As the pace of change is slow, radical change in the framework is neither desirable nor possible in the timeframe under consideration. However, there is imperative need to introduce qualitative change in the capabilities of the IAF driven by the technological revolution in Air Power.

Aerial Reconnaissance

In peacetime, apart from training for war, an important mission of the IAF would be the acquisition of strategic and tactical intelligence through technical means. Strategic reconnaissance by fixed wing aircraft would have to be replaced by space based platforms equipped with a wide variety of powerful sensors. Tactical reconnaissance would be assigned to a family of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) even over long range through the use of high endurance machines controlled remotely from thousands of miles away with the aid of satellite based data links.

Employing a variety of photo, infrared and comint sensors, it would be possible to counter the element of surprise by maintaining continuous surveillance to assess intent through changes in enemy orbat and relocation of forces. Surveillance systems will be employed to map and update information on strategic target systems and provide highly accurate data necessary for precision attacks by smart weapons particularly in the opening stages of any conflict. Assurance levels of smart weapons are contingent on the accuracy of target data and hence the critical importance of the capability of intelligence gathering platforms and airborne sensors.

Continued…: IAF: Meeting the Challenges – II