Relationship with Pakistan belongs altogether to a different category – intensely problematic. It has been so from day one when Pakistan came into existence. The problem began with Pakistani covetousness for the J&K state. Four wars have been fought between the two countries and a proxy war continues. Single minded antagonism to India led to the emergence of the Pakistani nuclear program. The Pakistani establishment has been itching to employ the arsenal on India. There have been four occasions in the past when they came close to it. US discovery of their intentions thwarted them the last three times.
The Jihadi aim is to set up India as an Islamic Caliphate. They count on Islamic injunctions to assume, not proven so far, that large sections of Indian Muslims will aid and support them.
The first time was in 1982–83 when Pakistan suspected that India, aided by Israel, was planning to bomb Kahuta where the Pakistani nuclear weapons program was taking shape. The last three were linked to Indian Brasstracks exercise in 1987, commencement of Pakistani inspired insurgency in J&K state (1990) and Kargil (1999).
Meanwhile, new developments have occurred which have altered Pakistan’s strategic objectives. The Pakistani state has greatly weakened and grown unstable. A good part of its North Western region has become Talibanized. Sizeable sections of the security establishment including its intelligence and paramilitary forces subscribe to the Islamist ideology. It is an easy transformation from Islamism to Jihadism. As Talibanization creeps into the hinterland and nearer Islamabad and Rawalpindi, the probability of the security establishment donning the colours of Jihadism becomes somewhat real.
The Jihadi aim is to set up India as an Islamic Caliphate. They count on Islamic injunctions to assume, not proven so far, that large sections of Indian Muslims will aid and support them.
Such designs and the nuclear arsenal of Pakistan, make it today the most dangerous spot in the world. If another 9/11 hits the US, most of the western intelligence believe that the source would be Pakistan which has provided refuge to the Al Qaeda leadership. Pakistani duplicity of masquerading as an US ally in the fight against international terror while giving covert support to the Taliban in Afghanistan against the US stands exposed. The US has now warned Pakistan that if it does not move against the Al Qaeda leaders hiding in Pakistan, its ground forces will enter Pakistan to finish the job themselves. Such an event, if it occurs will exacerbate tensions between Muslims and non-Muslims all over the world. A collapsed Pakistan may be good for India, but India may face unpredictable consequences.
Japan is another country to watch. The three greats in Asia in times ahead will be China, Japan and India, each engaged in a furious economic competition with the other two. But while Japan is unlikely to cease regarding China as an abiding threat for reasons of history and quarrels over territory in East China Sea, its attitude towards India is changing from indifference to active strategic cooperation. The largest quantity of Japanese aid now flows to India, not China. In the new balance of power politics in Asia, the Japanese support will be a plus factor for India provided one can count on it.
India’s relationship with most of its immediate neighbors has not been happy. This includes besides Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka. Part of the reason is India’s size as compared to that of the neighbors, which gives rise to misplaced suspicions of hegemonism. In response, neighbors have permitted or promoted terror against India and given shelter to leaders of insurgencies fighting India. Such an environment allows easy access to Chinese interests into these countries. Lack of mutual trust becomes a cause for impeding growth of economic and trade relations. In the Saarc region, India’s trade with its neighbors is no more than 3 percent. Perhaps Saarc has no future and our best hope may be to revert back to bilateral relations selectively.
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