Indian Defence Review

Since the Pakistani schoolgirl Malala Yousafzai was shot by Taliban gunmen on her way to school, the pressure has been mounting both in Pakistan and Afghanistan to bring those behind the crime to justice, but this momentary uproar is not likely to have any effect on the Wahhabist movement either in Pakistan or in Afghanistan; in fact, their influence is spreading in the entire region; as the U.S. and allied forces are carrying out a gradual withdrawal of their combat troops from Afghanistan, even a diminished al-Qaeda is staging a comeback. Islamic fundamentalism, which is on the march in South Asia, is the main engine of kick-starting terrorism.

There is extraordinary international focus on South Asia because of the aspirations of radical Islamic groups to impose their version of Islam by force in all Muslim pockets in this region; uncontrolled use of bombs, explosives and guns by fundamentalist groups in Pakistan has not only created total confusion and chaos in that country but also endangered the stability and security of the neighbouring countries.

The origin of contemporary Muslim militancy in the region can be traced back to the resistance groups raised by the United States during the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan. The tribesmen were recruited not as “Afghan patriots” but as “jihadists” to harass and attack the infidels. Later, the United States, with help of Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, recruited tribal groups of several Muslim regions to fight a proxy war against the Soviet forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan was the centre of their indoctrination and military training; Pakistan has been the epicentre of international terrorism since then. Pakistan army created and helped the Taliban seize power in Afghanistan and this facilitated the spread of fundamentalists in South Asian countries. Al-Qaeda and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) trained volunteers from various Muslim countries across the globe spread out to train and organise jihadist warriors in various regions of the world after the war.

Militants from the Arabian Peninsula, Africa and many other regions who were indoctrinated and well trained in guerrilla tactics became entrenched in several regions of the world and operated in at least 60 different countries. Radical Islam now took roots in many countries previously unaffected by Islamic fundamentalism.

Terrorism

Terrorism, the main instrument for waging war of radical groups is a by-product of a fundamental mindset. Terrorism and fundamentalism together constitute a much larger danger for the integrity and stability of the region than any traditional threat.

Terrorists’ operations are dependent on the supply of modern weapons and sophisticated organisations requiring huge financial resources. Terrorists also require secure bases in a friendly country for operational planning, training of operatives and storage of weapons and explosives. Terrorists found their main state-supported safe haven in Pakistan because the Pakistan army considered them as strategic assets. The Pakistan army also facilitated the Taliban takeover of the major drug-producing areas in Afghanistan to finance its operations.

Terrorist-crime syndicate nexuses are common as they have to depend on each other for processing and marketing of drugs. In return, terrorist organisations provide crime syndicates protection and safe havens. These nexuses dangerously undermine the stability and internal security of the host countries in which they operate. The glaring example of a country falling in this lethal trap outside Africa is Pakistan. The deeply entrenched nexus of terrorists and organised crime in Pakistan has eroded the authority of all government agencies and has created a parallel authority and economy.

There has to be a major shift in the concept of national security today because of the advent of the global jihadi factor and the growing role of religious minorities and non-state actors that have taken to terrorism and violence in many countries. South Asia is being increasingly threatened by fundamentalist violence that takes the form of terrorism and persecution of nonconformist religious or ethnic factions. This situation has undermined the ability of most states to manage conflicts by traditional methods as these conflicts are quite unlike external aggression, for which certain international rules exist.

Regional Overview

The internal conditions in Pakistan and Afghanistan challenge the economic viability and militate against the conditions necessary for economic or social progress of south Asia. The inter-religious problems, human rights violations and displacement of populations have multiplied in most south Asian countries due to the advent of Islamic fundamentalism, which is engendering regional conflicts. There is apprehension that as soon as the U.S.-NATO combat troops leave Afghanistan, the Taliban, with the tacit support of the Pakistan army and the ISI, will take over the country and radical groups will impose a strict Sharia law.

The Taliban movement will try to impose its rules in the neighbouring areas, and the entire effort of the U.S.-NATO forces would prove to be a waste of good men and material. In these circumstances, a concerted effort of the international community is needed to forestall and prevent a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. Regional powers, especially Russia, India and China, must make a joint effort to ensure a moderate regime in Afghanistan for maintaining peace and stability in the region.

Afghanistan

Afghanistan has been in the vortex of tribal wars and military conflicts that have been exacerbated by foreign interventions for many decades now. The Soviet invasion, U.S.-led NATO operations, al-Qaeda and the Taliban militancy have kept Afghanistan in perpetual chaos. It remains one of the most heavily mined areas of the world, and as per the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA), almost 80 per cent of civilian deaths are attributable to mines and explosives (IEDs).

The announcement of the United States and its Western allies of withdrawal of combat troops by the end of 2014 has created insecurity among Afghanistan’s neighbours as the Afghan national security forces that are to take over from international forces seem still disorganised and divided. Peace is further imperilled by the new phenomenon of “green on blue” attacks – increasingly, some Afghan forces are attacking the U.S.-NATO troops. The plans of the Afghan government for arming militias in those parts of the country where police and military presence is thin have also gone awry as these forces have been implicated in loot, murder and extortion, thereby creating greater lawlessness.

The fate of the Karzai government after the American withdrawal is uncertain. The role of Pakistan in preserving the regime may be crucial, but the intentions of Pakistani army of foisting a subservient Taliban regime after the withdrawal of U.S.-NATO forces are obvious.

Pakistan

Pakistan has often been called the most dangerous state in the world. The reasons for this are not far to seek because it is not only a sponsor of terrorism, it has become a fountainhead of fundamentalism. Radical Islamist elements based here have created serious problems in the neighbourhood by unleashing terrorist forces.

Radical groups have been facilitating Taliban operations in Afghanistan against U.S.-led forces; Pakistan continues to harbour international terrorist groups such as al-Qaeda, which is funding terrorists operating in the central Asian states and western China. Pakistan is riddled with sectarian strife because it has little control on fundamentalist forces it created to conduct terrorist activities beyond its borders.

Pakistani military’s inability to forestall terrorist attacks against its own headquarters and intelligence and government institutions and the public is a clear indication that it is losing control steadily. The nuclear materials and weapons that it holds may now be in danger of falling in the hands of terrorists. The most object failure is the near collapse of its economy, which can no longer sustain the country without external assistance.

Pakistan’s Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), inhabited by Pashtun tribesmen, has been “ungovernable,” and now these tribesmen are up in arms against Pakistan itself. The disputed border on the Durand Line, with Afghanistan, is now in the clutches of the neo-Taliban and the arena of war between NATO and Haqqani militants.

In the last two decades, influenced by Wahhabists, fundamentalists and militias here have mutated into powerful and well-armed groups that are currently fighting the Pakistan army and attacking NATO forces across the borders. The Pakistan army today finds itself facing radical Islamists and warlords who are challenging the writ of the government.

Pakistan is paying the price of the short-sighted policies adopted by its military dictators that nurtured a large number of fanatical groups and militant jihadists trained and used for cross-border attacks. The fallout of this is that the militia are calling the shots and Pakistan is sliding into uncontrollable levels of terrorist violence today.

The Pakistan army is still unable to understand that it is its terror-based policy that is wrecking its own country and ruining its economy. The terrorist groups it raised to execute its policy in India and Afghanistan are now attacking Pakistani establishments itself and killing innocent people. The main target is, however, India, and it is directing terror attacks against it by remote control periodically.

If the Pakistan army and the ISI continue to play this game, it will not be possible for them to bring back peace within the country. It is necessary that the instruments of destruction nurtured so far by the army are disbanded. Conflicting interests and internal factions are resisting any change. Unless the military and the ISI change their strategy of nurturing terrorist groups, the situation will not change and domestic terrorism will emerge stronger than the state.

India

India is under attack both by foreign and indigenous terrorist groups; Saudi Arabia has emerged as a new base of Indian Mujahideen (IM), created there by the ISI of Pakistan for carrying out operations in various cities of India. The ISI has dispersed its training facilities for foreign terrorists as Pakistan is under the scrutiny of the entire world for sponsoring terrorism against its neighbours. This arrangement, it believes, will provide it a legally plausible deniability if accused of sponsoring terrorism in various countries.

The Pakistani link of the IM terrorists holed in Saudi Arabia became apparent during the interrogation of Abu Jindal, a Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) operative of Indian origin who was a crucial link during the 26/11 attack in Mumbai. It was discovered that he was shifted to Saudi Arabia from Pakistan in 2010 and given the responsibility to recruit Indian youths for terror attacks in India. Fasih Mohammad, another Indian deported by Saudi authorities recently, was a fund-raiser for the IM. He is one of the founding members of IM and an engineer by profession. Fasih is suspected to be involved in the attacks at the Chinnaswamy Stadium in Bangalore (April 2010) and Delhi’s Jama Masjid (19 September 2010). Fasih is the third key LeT operative to be deported by Saudi Arabia in the past few months while five other operatives are still believed to be hiding in Saudi Arabia.1

One intelligence report suggests that the IM has been in touch with Hizbut Tahrir also to help it in radicalising Muslim youths in India through social media and radical literature that is being distributed by Hizbut Tahrir in several Islamic countries.

China

China looms large over the region. Some of China’s internal security and stability problems are arising from Islamic terrorism that is connected to separatism and organised crime syndicates operating from Af-Pak. The turbulence that is being created by the Muslim rebellion in Xinjiang challenges China’s federal structure and social reconstruction programmes and jeopardises the primacy of the central authority and the Communist Party.

China has generally downplayed the level of terrorist violence in Xinjiang, though violence has been on the increase since 1997, and has maintained a close relationship with Pakistan that patronises militants, al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups that are fuelling Muslim Uighur violence in Xinjiang. The Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region has major strategic importance for China as it is bordering Central Asia and the Indian subcontinent.

The reported links of the Uighur Muslim radicals in Xinjiang with many international Islamic fundamentalist movements of Asia and the Middle East make terrorism and violence a big challenge for the Chinese government. The Chinese government is apprehensive that the Uighur movement may also encourage rebellion, unrest and separatist movements in other sensitive outlying regions.

To control terrorist violence, the central government has begun using severe methods and is currently successfully managing the Islamic extremism in sensitive areas. However, China’s “strike hard” policies in Xinjiang and Tibet are fuelling separatist movements further afar and increasing the demands for independence both in Xinjiang and Tibet.