Indian Defence Review

Source: https://www.economist.com

It is indeed ironical that Russia which is the world’s second largest natural gas producer with 669 billioncubic meters (bcm) is not a member of international Energy Agency (IEA) which has 31 member nations and is headquartered in Paris, France.

Russia also has the world’s largest proven gas reserves with 48 trillion cubic meters (tcm), thus making it as a formidable player in its quest for gas supremacy.

The role of IEA covers all the traditional energy sources and was established under the aegis of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OCED). IEA was founded as a response to the 1973 Oil Crisis also called as the First Oil Crisis with the aim to respond to disruption of oil and later on the other traditional energy sources like natural gas and coal were included in its mandate too.

In 2021, Russia being the world’s leading exporter of natural gas exported US$ 55.5 billion dollars’ worth of natural gas. By volume the five biggest countries to whom Russia exports natural gas are Germany (19.4%), Italy (10.2%), Belarus (9.6%), Turkey (6.1%) and France (6.1%).

It is interesting to note that out of the five countries listed above, except Belarus the rest four are NATO members.

Natural gas is used in refrigeration and cooling equipment, cooking, drying clothes and heating buildings and water and in heat and power systems.

Europe which experiences a severe winter relies heavily on the natural gas for the heating of its buildings. So as Russia invaded Ukraine in 24 February 2022, with winters still in full swing NATO and USA were caught in a quagmire as banning Russian gas would have a disastrous effect in many of its member nations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin who was a Lieutenant Colonel in the Russian secret service KGB before resigning and joining active politics in 1991, is a seasoned soldier and an astute politician who understands tactics and strategy in equal measure and hence craftily chose the winter months to invade Ukraine as a retaliation by NATO to expand its membership in eastern Europe, an act perceived as a security threat to Russia.

With Russia supplying 40% of the natural gas needs to Europe, Putin knows very well how to use natural gas as a geo-political weapon.

Despite USA and NATO assuring Mikhail Gorbachev the President of the erstwhile USSR that it will not expand the NATO membership drive any further, it continued its membership drive relentlessly in spite of the Warsaw Pact dissolving in July 1991 and USSR breaking up into 15 countries on 26 December 1991.

Post 1991 Russia emerged as the new super power in the world order along with USA, but it knew that the day was not far when NATO would reach its doorstep soon.

Gazprom the Russian firm who supplies natural gas to the European countries though Ukraine since it was carved out of USSR in 1991, started having disputes with the Ukrainian oil and gas company Naftogaz in 2005. These corporate disputes soon snowballed into grave political issues.

The corporate disputes reached its peak in when Naftogaz admitted that it had been secretly diverting the natural gas meant for European countries for its domestic needs. Accordingly on 01 January 2006 Russia cut off the gas passing through Ukraine.

On 04 January 2006 the dispute between Russia and Ukraine was temporarily resolved and gas supplies were resumed by Russia.

In October 2007 fresh disputes arose between the two countries over payment of money by Ukraine. 2008 and 2009 saw frequent gas disruptions.

2010 saw escalation of these disputes as the Stockholm Court of Arbitration ruled that Naftogaz should return 12.1 bcm of natural gas to RosUkrEnergo, a Switzerland based company in which Gazprom has a 50% stake.

To ensure that the delivery of natural gas in a timely and an efficient manner to the countries purchasing its natural gas and to avoid using the Ukrainian soil for transit, Russia started constructing Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline from Vyborg in Russia to Lubmin in Germany passing through the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea. The construction of Nord Stream 1 started in May 2011 and was inaugurated on 08 October 2012.

The construction of Nord Stream 2 which started in 2018, the first line of which was completed in June 2021 and its second line in September 2021, runs from Ust-Luga in Russia to Lubmin, Germany too passes through the Gulf of Finland and the Baltic Sea.

With Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2 completed, Russia did not have to depend on Ukraine to supply the gas to the European countries.

Though Nord Stream 1 is in operation but the certification of Nord Stream 2 has been put on hold by Germany in wake of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War.

On 21 May 2014 Gazprom and China Natural Petroleum Corporation reached an agreement wherein Russia will supply 38 bcm of natural gas to China each year for the next 30 years.

Clearly Russia’s quest for the gas supremacy gallops further.

Bill Richardson rightly remarked “Natural gas is the future. It is here”.

The reluctance of NATO to ban the Russian gas despite Russia annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and then invading Ukraine on 24 February 2022 buttresses Bill Richardson’s quote.